Independence Referendum

[George2Loose]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

[doubleup]

Was just round voting - it looked like half the votes had been already cast!

[ripple11]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

+1


Looking at tightys stats / graphs, (plus one or two others ),watching and reading this play out.....does it not feel close?

Yet,today its still....... 1/5 is NO and 4/1 YES 

[Ironside]

I am going to love tonight nfl and election special

[Doobs]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

+1


Looking at tightys stats / graphs, (plus one or two others ),watching and reading this play out.....does it not feel close?

Yet,today its still....... 1/5 is NO and 4/1 YES 

You can get 5/1 on Betfair now.  Have just done one of those bets that feels a bit dirty, so must be value. 

Love the hope vs fear stuff.  Hope we have a currency union.   Hope we can walk away from your debts.  Hope we can get 90% of the oil.  Hope there is a masisve turnaround in oil volumes.  Hope that sustainable energy no longer needs big subsidies.  Hope we can collect less tax and pay more to public services and still have enough to provide an oil fund for the future.  Hope we get a AAA rating.

They are right, hopes don't get much bigger than all those.

Hope we are still together in the morning.  Going to be like death in the morning, already done two late ones in a row.

[Karabiner]

I reckon Jim White should present the election special show tonight.

[Marky147]

I reckon Jim White should present the election special show tonight.

With Kammy on the street.

[Graham C]

i mean, apart from going on a three day bender win or lose what are thousands of Scot campaigners yes or no going to do next week?!

Get on the case for an independent Wales!

[Somerled]

Getting a wee bit fed up with this now. For every bit of bad behaviour by a yes supporter I could find you evidence of far worse on the other side. The media have behaved very poorly throughout this in portraying it 1. as an issue at all (even a senior police officer had to make a statement today about it) and 2. that it is only one side that has a few idiots.

Social media has been quite a revelation to me throughout this just makes me wonder what bullshit we have been fed in the past that we have naively lapped up.

I've ignored the media on this and only gone with what I've seen and heard myself. It's been 100% one way.
You may choose not to believe that, I don't particularly care.

I was typing that while you were posting so wasn't directed towards you in particular.

I don't doubt you when you say that is what you have witnessed personally and also that you don't particularly care although why you feel the need to make the point I don't know.

Apologies - thought the comment was directed at me. I was a bit tired! 

[arbboy]

Hope everyone enjoys the day whatever the result.  I have really enjoyed the debate on this thread over the past 3 weeks.  TY for everyone contributing to it whatever your stance.

[Somerled]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

+1


Looking at tightys stats / graphs, (plus one or two others ),watching and reading this play out.....does it not feel close?

Yet,today its still....... 1/5 is NO and 4/1 YES 

You can get 5/1 on Betfair now.  Have just done one of those bets that feels a bit dirty, so must be value. 

Love the hope vs fear stuff.  Hope we have a currency union.   Hope we can walk away from your debts.  Hope we can get 90% of the oil.  Hope there is a masisve turnaround in oil volumes.  Hope that sustainable energy no longer needs big subsidies.  Hope we can collect less tax and pay more to public services and still have enough to provide an oil fund for the future.  Hope we get a AAA rating.

They are right, hopes don't get much bigger than all those.

Hope we are still together in the morning.  Going to be like death in the morning, already done two late ones in a row.

Very tempted to have a bet on yes at 5/1. Seems ridiculously good value. Just.......can't.......quite.......bring......myself.....to do it.  

[arbboy]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

+1


Looking at tightys stats / graphs, (plus one or two others ),watching and reading this play out.....does it not feel close?

Yet,today its still....... 1/5 is NO and 4/1 YES 

You can get 5/1 on Betfair now.  Have just done one of those bets that feels a bit dirty, so must be value. 

Love the hope vs fear stuff.  Hope we have a currency union.   Hope we can walk away from your debts.  Hope we can get 90% of the oil.  Hope there is a masisve turnaround in oil volumes.  Hope that sustainable energy no longer needs big subsidies.  Hope we can collect less tax and pay more to public services and still have enough to provide an oil fund for the future.  Hope we get a AAA rating.

They are right, hopes don't get much bigger than all those.

Hope we are still together in the morning.  Going to be like death in the morning, already done two late ones in a row.

Very tempted to have a bet on yes at 5/1. Seems ridiculously good value. Just.......can't.......quite.......bring......myself.....to do it.  

It seems 'good value' but if you had backed yes at 5/1 in every poll result so far you would have lost fortunes even though every result was 'close' which is why it's 5/1 even though the polls are so close.  Add on the fact that previous form suggests the no vote should grow slightly late on with the 'better the devil you know' factor and i think all the 'coinflip' rubbish in the popular press is holding up the 1/5 no and it should probably be even shorter.

[Kmac84]

All these stats Rich, I sense you are in heaven

going to miss it, as an election junkie

i mean, apart from going on a three day bender win or lose what are thousands of Scot campaigners yes or no going to do next week?!

The real work starts on the 19th.

[Doobs]

Love any type of election night. Looking forward to it!

+1


Looking at tightys stats / graphs, (plus one or two others ),watching and reading this play out.....does it not feel close?

Yet,today its still....... 1/5 is NO and 4/1 YES 

You can get 5/1 on Betfair now.  Have just done one of those bets that feels a bit dirty, so must be value. 

Love the hope vs fear stuff.  Hope we have a currency union.   Hope we can walk away from your debts.  Hope we can get 90% of the oil.  Hope there is a masisve turnaround in oil volumes.  Hope that sustainable energy no longer needs big subsidies.  Hope we can collect less tax and pay more to public services and still have enough to provide an oil fund for the future.  Hope we get a AAA rating.

They are right, hopes don't get much bigger than all those.

Hope we are still together in the morning.  Going to be like death in the morning, already done two late ones in a row.

Very tempted to have a bet on yes at 5/1. Seems ridiculously good value. Just.......can't.......quite.......bring......myself.....to do it.  

It seems 'good value' but if you had backed yes at 5/1 in every poll result so far you would have lost fortunes even though every result was 'close' which is why it's 5/1 even though the polls are so close.  Add on the fact that previous form suggests the no vote should grow slightly late on with the 'better the devil you know' factor and i think all the 'coinflip' rubbish in the popular press is holding up the 1/5 no and it should probably be even shorter.

I don't think this is right.  There could easilu be systematic bias in the polls.  So though many of them are around 48/52, because they are all polling wrong, they could easily be a couple of percent out.  Eg they could be missing people who don't normally vote, or the no voters are too scared to say because they are intimidated in their area by one side or the other.  What we don't know is which of these biasses is more likely to be true, or even if there is something that everyone is missing.   For the general elections they have had many elections to make sure they are adjusting their results correctly.  So gradually the techniques are honed so that the result is pretty accurate.

In this case the referendum is a one off, so there has been no way of knowing if they are adjusting their polling data correctly, or that there panel is representative of the voters.

So in a normal election they can sit there and say our poll is going to be within 2% of the correct result 95% of the time, here they can't possibly be so sure.  The real confidence interval around the results could easily be +- 5% instead of +-2%.  So if this were an election you could probably be confident we are taking 5/1 about a 10/1 chance, here we could easliy be taking 5/1 about a 3/1 chance.  

  

[TightEnd]

the pollsters are definitely worried they have missed these systematic biases (not picking up people previously unengaged in voting, not picking up the 16-18yo voter patterns)

could easily be a 2sd result not a 1sd result and with polls of 48-52 that makes 44-56 either way possible


at least Moira in the daily mail is prepared