Independence Referendum

[Kmac84]

What amuses me is how stupid so many people have become to just blindly follow a man with a massive ego and a place in history as his main driver. To be honest, if I was in his position, it must be very alluring to know if he pulls this off he will possibly be remembered alongside the great names of Scotland past. It therefore becomes an even greater motivation to make the whole pill sound far sweeter than it really is.

Salmon has enough personal wealth, and will make even more once this is done, that he can carry on saying whatever he likes, and win or lose he will be very comfortable, but to win, he will be a legend, a dangerous motivator for a man with an ego like his.

That's not how I read it - I don't think Salmond ever thought independence was actually likely, I think the whole aim of the referendum was to give him all the power he wanted, i.e. devolving all the governmental powers to Scotland but with having the Treasury there to subsidise all the features like free education and free prescriptions that Scotland wouldn't be able to afford to keep (without massive tax hikes) if it gained independence.

Why would Scotland not be able to afford free prescriptions or free education? 

We put more into the treasury than we take out.  We are able to reduce the expenses of contributing to Westminister, House of Lords, Trident, Armed Forces, Contributions to things like HS2 and the Olympics etc etc. 
There is no reason for massive tax hikes, that said even if there were to be tax increases I think thy would be moderate, but an end to the council tax freeze and actually a complete overhaul of that would be beneficial to many it would raise more funds for public purs that could be put back into education. 

The general assumption is we will continue on the trajection set out by Westminister when that is far from the truth.  The White Paper was wishy washy, and it wasn't something many of us within the yes camp agreed with there are some fantastic minds on our side who have some excellent ideas which would be fairly easy to implement.  Much of this you won't hear in the MSM because they are by and large happy with the way things are run at present.   There is a different path we can travel. 

[kinboshi]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

[Kmac84]

The stuff you don't see on the news!

http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/YesInfoRally

[TightEnd]

"The Scottish referendum tomorrow is a great set piece test of the accuracy of opinion polling. We have snapshots from a wide range of pollsters, both online and telephone all suggesting a very close finish, with No ahead only a few points at 52 per cent, versus 48 per cent for the Yes. But what if the polls are wrong? There are plenty of potential challenges."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/who-are-shy-no-voters-and-what-do-they-mean-scottish-referendum

from the head of IPSOS Mori

[kinboshi]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

They've also said that if there is a high turnout (higher than predicted), this will favour the 'No' vote, and the gap could widen to as much as 7%.

[Kmac84]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

They've also said that if there is a high turnout (higher than predicted), this will favour the 'No' vote, and the gap could widen to as much as 7%.

Interesting because many of us think the opposite, higher turn out more likely to be beneficial to yes.  That train of thought has been substantiated by the Labour Politicians coming out with the " still undecided don't vote"

[arbboy]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

They've also said that if there is a high turnout (higher than predicted), this will favour the 'No' vote, and the gap could widen to as much as 7%.

Interesting because many of us think the opposite, higher turn out more likely to be beneficial to yes.  That train of thought has been substantiated by the Labour Politicians coming out with the " still undecided don't vote"

If someone is still undecided after all this time and all the debates then they must be a fence sitter/risk averse type logically and will surely be more likely to vote no and not rock the boat?

[BorntoBubble]

My outsider thinking is that don't knows will be more likey no then yes. That seems the logical thing for me

[kinboshi]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

They've also said that if there is a high turnout (higher than predicted), this will favour the 'No' vote, and the gap could widen to as much as 7%.

Interesting because many of us think the opposite, higher turn out more likely to be beneficial to yes.  That train of thought has been substantiated by the Labour Politicians coming out with the " still undecided don't vote"

I'd say they're the professionals in this, and have accurately predicted election and poll results on many occasions, in many countries, in many different situations.  But they did get the sample selection wrong by initially omitting 16-17 year olds .

[Woodsey]

My outsider thinking is that don't knows will be more likey no then yes. That seems the logical thing for me

My Scottish colleague I'm with today tells me a good proportion of the quiet ones not giving away what they will vote with be no's. The yes vote campaigners are being pretty aggressive so many are reluctant to admit to being a no.

[arbboy]

My cousin in Aberdeen said it's the opposite in most oil firm's offices.  Most yes voters are keeping quiet and the no types are louder with their views presumably because their bosses have publicly stated they would prefer a no vote.

[Ironside]

just heard salmonella on STV saying that yes is the underdog

[Ironside]

A friend of mine works for a well-known market research company and they've just produced a very detailed and scientific report predicting the result of the referendum with a greater confidence and accuracy than others.  They were quite proud of it, until someone pointed out to them that their US team (who processed the research) only sampled people aged 18+ instead of 16+...

 

What were the reults did he say? 

Of votes cast, the yes will get 47%.

They've also said that if there is a high turnout (higher than predicted), this will favour the 'No' vote, and the gap could widen to as much as 7%.

Interesting because many of us think the opposite, higher turn out more likely to be beneficial to yes.  That train of thought has been substantiated by the Labour Politicians coming out with the " still undecided don't vote"

If someone is still undecided after all this time and all the debates then they must be a fence sitter/risk averse type logically and will surely be more likely to vote no and not rock the boat?

i am still on fence, i am not normally but its hard to vote yes for something when we dont know what we are voting yes for

will it be a president a prime minister, how many elected bodies  etc etc etc

SNP/YES camp have made a total mess of this by not having plans for what we are voting for apart from home rule i have no idea

will scotland be like russia for instance?
or even worth like north korea?

[nirvana]

Now we're on the eve of a momentous day I've been reflecting.

At first, I really liked the idea of a yes vote. This was purely because it would present such a fascinating set of issues in the political landscape post the vote.

But now, the end is near, and as we face the final curtain, I have become conflicted and have decided I don't want the Scotchmen to abandon us.

No = 57% is my final prediction and I hope I'm right. If the yessers lose, then I think they can get over it and go back to campaigning for a fairer society, hopefully with a bagful of additional devolved powers. Not a bad result.

If the Noes lose, then that is going to be a pretty bad feeling - alienated in your own country and abandoned by the rest of the UK. In fact, with any extended thought it is hard to fathom how a UK parliament countenanced that a referendum on independence was in anyone's interest

[Teacake]

IPSOS MORI poll

No 51(-7)
Yes 49 (+7)

This was the only pollster  that called the 2011 Scottish Election correctly