Independence Referendum

[Kmac84]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined. 

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet. 

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

[arbboy]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined.  

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet.  

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

Are you backing your opinion with hard readies because betfair suggests its 72% likely it ends in a no.  Looks like a cast iron best bet of the year spot for yourself if you views are correct.

With regards to you winning over voters, how many voters who are indifferent do you think just agree with you and tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you when you are knocking on their door?  In reality you don't really know what they are going to do.  Very few people would actually care enough to stand up to you and disagree with the tone of your voice on this thread being an indication of your campaigning style.  Do you not think the vast majority of punters when the no campaign knock on their door who are undecided just agree to the vast majority of totally opposing views to yours after nodding their head at your points earlier in the day?  Not sounding harsh just trying to add some realism into the whole thing.

[Rod Paradise]

There have been a fair few high profile moves from No to Yes, and as has been said most undecideds are coming over to Yes as well.

There may be a reason....

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-more-informed-favour-yes-1-3534372#


WRT the vote turnout on the day RIC has done a lot getting previously unregistered voters enthused. I'm hoping for a cold wet day to keep the OAP's in - since they seem the only majority left for No.

[Kmac84]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined. 

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet. 

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

Are you backing your opinion with hard readies because betfair suggests its 72% likely it ends in a no.  Looks like a cast iron best bet of the year spot for yourself if you views are correct.

With regards to you winning over voters, how many voters who are indifferent do you think just agree with you and tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you when you are knocking on their door?  In reality you don't really know what they are going to do.  Very few people would actually care enough to stand up to you and disagree with the tone of your voice on this thread being an indication of your campaigning style.

I have enough on the outcome that I feel comfortable with.  I backed at prices as big as 14/1.  

Re 2nd point, no I don't most people are quite willing to discuss the referendum with you.  And my way of canvassing is to let them come to their own colcusion.  The majority of people we speak to though in working class areas are looking for honest answers, they don't want things sugar coated and they aren't much interested in the bullshit politicians speak.  They want to know how this event will effect their day to day lives.

[arbboy]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined. 

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet. 

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

Are you backing your opinion with hard readies because betfair suggests its 72% likely it ends in a no.  Looks like a cast iron best bet of the year spot for yourself if you views are correct.

With regards to you winning over voters, how many voters who are indifferent do you think just agree with you and tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you when you are knocking on their door?  In reality you don't really know what they are going to do.  Very few people would actually care enough to stand up to you and disagree with the tone of your voice on this thread being an indication of your campaigning style.

I have enough on the outcome that I feel comfortable with.  I backed at prices as big as 14/1.  

Re 2nd point, no I don't most people are quite willing to discuss the referendum with you.  And my way of canvassing is to let them come to their own colcusion.  The majority of people we speak to though in working class areas are looking for honest answers, they don't want things sugar coated and they aren't much interested in the bullshit politicians speak.  They want to know how this event will effect their day to day lives.

nice work getting the 14/1.  VWP

[Woodsey]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined. 

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet. 

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

Are you backing your opinion with hard readies because betfair suggests its 72% likely it ends in a no.  Looks like a cast iron best bet of the year spot for yourself if you views are correct.

With regards to you winning over voters, how many voters who are indifferent do you think just agree with you and tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you when you are knocking on their door?  In reality you don't really know what they are going to do.  Very few people would actually care enough to stand up to you and disagree with the tone of your voice on this thread being an indication of your campaigning style.

I have enough on the outcome that I feel comfortable with.  I backed at prices as big as 14/1.  

Re 2nd point, no I don't most people are quite willing to discuss the referendum with you.  And my way of canvassing is to let them come to their own colcusion.  The majority of people we speak to though in working class areas are looking for honest answers, they don't want things sugar coated and they aren't much interested in the bullshit politicians speak.  They want to know how this event will effect their day to day lives.

So you have told them different things than you have told us here?  

[arbboy]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

[david3103]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no,

So how will that present itself?

Political campaigning? To what end? Another referendum would be a somewhat undemocratic waste of time and money.

A protest campaign? To what limits?

[arbboy]

We're not going to disappear on the 19th, the yes movement will grow bigger and stronger after the 19th if it ends in a no, unlikely that it will imo.  But with a UKIP/Tory coalition in 2016 the movement will go stronger and more determined. 

And once we're out we're out unless of course a pro union campaign grows in Scotland, but if we fail I'd hope the rest of UK told us beat it.  We have to stand on our own 2 feet. 

Regards Overtheborders point, we are definitely winning the vast majority of undecideds, we have won over quite a few soft no's and we are making ground on many Labour voters who would have been hard no's but have become totally disillusioned with the party as each passing day goes by.

Are you backing your opinion with hard readies because betfair suggests its 72% likely it ends in a no.  Looks like a cast iron best bet of the year spot for yourself if you views are correct.

With regards to you winning over voters, how many voters who are indifferent do you think just agree with you and tell you what you want to hear to get rid of you when you are knocking on their door?  In reality you don't really know what they are going to do.  Very few people would actually care enough to stand up to you and disagree with the tone of your voice on this thread being an indication of your campaigning style.

I have enough on the outcome that I feel comfortable with.  I backed at prices as big as 14/1.  

Re 2nd point, no I don't most people are quite willing to discuss the referendum with you.  And my way of canvassing is to let them come to their own colcusion.  The majority of people we speak to though in working class areas are looking for honest answers, they don't want things sugar coated and they aren't much interested in the bullshit politicians speak.  They want to know how this event will effect their day to day lives.

So you have told them different things than you have told us here?  

too good woodsey!

[DungBeetle]

I can't see this turning into one of those EU votes where they keep re-running it till the "correct" answer is reached.  Surely if the vote is "no" then that's it for 20 years (unless UK votes to leave EU in which case circumstances have changed enough to justify another vote)?  Why should the majority (the no voters) have to bother with another referendum to appease the vocal minority?

[Rod Paradise]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

[arbboy]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

I am looking at the most liquid market with £4m in real cash bet on it on betfair.  It's easily the best guide of any out there to the likelihood of the yes/not outcome imo as anyone can bet unlimited amounts of money into it at the prices (no restrictions unlike most bookies if you win).  If the prices were 'wrong' they would soon correct believe me.  People who are emotionally attached to the outcome via their campaigning might disagree but in the cold light of day this is the best poll of any out there.  Hard money talks over people telling people in polls who they will vote for but might not every day of the week.  Yes can obviously still win but, currently its 28% likely in the strongest market guide out there.

Using the number of bets placed on each outcome is a pointless stat as one pro punter having a lump on no counts as one bet but 10000 mugs having £5/£10 'interest' bets on yes because its a two horse race blah blah blah and yes is value etc etc shows a 1/10000 bet ratio

[OverTheBorder]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

That is just wrong, by that logic then Scotland should have beaten Germany last night as patriotic money is placed regardless of "value" I can guess more was bet on Scotland than Germany last night. Doesn't mean it's more likely.

[Rod Paradise]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

I am looking at the most liquid market with £4m in real cash bet on it on betfair.  It's easily the best guide of any out there to the likelihood of the yes/not outcome imo as anyone can bet unlimited amounts of money into it at the prices (no restrictions unlike most bookies if you win).  If the prices were 'wrong' they would soon correct believe me.  People who are emotionally attached to the outcome via their campaigning might disagree but in the cold light of day this is the best poll of any out there.  Hard money talks over people telling people in polls who they will vote for but might not every day of the week.  Yes can obviously still win but, currently its 28% likely in the strongest market guide out there.

Using the number of bets placed on each outcome is a pointless stat as one pro punter having a lump on no counts as one bet but 10000 mugs having £5/£10 'interest' bets on yes because its a two horse race blah blah blah and yes is value etc etc shows a 1/10000 bet ratio

If that's the way you want to look at it go ahead. Since the only people with an actual influence are those in Scotland I'd have thought that was something to take into consideration, unless you think lots of people bet against what they believe, and do so while in the firm belief (as No were at the time) that they'd win the vote...

I answered your question anyway.

Over the Border - none of the players were betting though. Daft comparison (unless you take German bets into consideration). Or do you honestly believe the people putting on the patriotic money aren't voting Yes? And if the patriotic market is skewing the betting in Scotland, while the anglo market is skewing the odds in the UK then I know which one I reckon to pay attention to, since they actually have a vote.

[OverTheBorder]

assuming the no vote wins, which in all probability it will, what is the course of action for the yes movement given you will have been beaten?  Do you honestly think you will try to get a 2nd vote in a few years?  What is the bigger picture plan?  Don't say 'it's not necessary' because its highly likely this is going to be the case.

It's only 'likely' because you're looking at the betting odds made up from all bets in the UK. Given the standard of the coverage I've seen from outside Scotland I can totally understand the feeling that No is highly likely to win, but Hills published their bets taken in Scotland.... 79% of bets by 11th Aug were for Yes at which points their odds were 1/8 no and 9/2 yes. The weighting of the 75% f bets on No from England is having an effect, as well as hte one punter who put £800,000 on No, an inspired idea which got more column inches than the bet would have paid for.

But if it does happen I can't see the SNP not winning the next election (Labour have murdered the party in Scotland IMO) & if they are elected the mandate is there again. I personally think they'd give it a few years to see what happens with the promises, then attack again when we're let down.

I am looking at the most liquid market with £4m in real cash bet on it on betfair.  It's easily the best guide of any out there to the likelihood of the yes/not outcome imo as anyone can bet unlimited amounts of money into it at the prices (no restrictions unlike most bookies if you win).  If the prices were 'wrong' they would soon correct believe me.  People who are emotionally attached to the outcome via their campaigning might disagree but in the cold light of day this is the best poll of any out there.  Hard money talks over people telling people in polls who they will vote for but might not every day of the week.  Yes can obviously still win but, currently its 28% likely in the strongest market guide out there.

Using the number of bets placed on each outcome is a pointless stat as one pro punter having a lump on no counts as one bet but 10000 mugs having £5/£10 'interest' bets on yes because its a two horse race blah blah blah and yes is value etc etc shows a 1/10000 bet ratio

If that's the way you want to look at it go ahead. Since the only people with an actual influence are those in Scotland I'd have thought that was something to take into consideration, unless you think lots of people bet against what they believe, and do so while in the firm belief (as No were at the time) that they'd win the vote...

I answered your question anyway.

Over the Border - none of the players were betting though. Daft comparison (unless you take German bets into consideration). Or do you honestly believe the people putting on the patriotic money aren't voting Yes? And if the patriotic market is skewing the betting in Scotland, while the anglo market is skewing the odds in the UK then I know which one I reckon to pay attention to, since they actually have a vote.

What percentage of the electorate bet. Why would people lump on no at odds on. People will bet yes for a bit of fun and as they support it. Punters like arrboy may lump on as a value spot but most of the money is just novelty tenners I would guess. Nobody is going to have a novelty bet on no as it is not worth it.

To say betfair is not the best judge of the price is just wrong. It is nationwide and fully liquid, if there is more chance yes than no then lump on as you are getting 2/1 about an odds on shot