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Author Topic: Darts Betting and discussion  (Read 484630 times)
SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3090 on: July 29, 2018, 07:48:03 PM »

for sure, Gary might have historically struggled vs Mensur but Mensur a different guy now and he and GAry have played plenty so I don't think too much of that nowadays.  Mensur is a very sticky customer and hard to shake off, GAry usually gives you 1-2 chances a game and Mensur a legit winner these days.  Mensur's biggest strength is his clutch doubles, if Gary turns on the scoring jets then Mensur will not be able to keep up and will have to take out the 121's, 136's etc to stay in it, but he;s no slouch on the scoring either this yr (one of the most improved 180 hitters on tour) if he can cling on and not get totally battered when Gary goes on his hot streak (which seems inevitable) and pick up a few more of the scrappy legs.... then I think Mensur has a real chance.

In reality,  I think Mensur will cling on tight for the first 20-24 legs, potentially even be 13-11 ~ up, but then Gary will have one big spell deep that will kill it off, I think Gary will find that little extra when it matters and that will likely be what wins this.

Mensur can win this game though, absolutely no doubting that - and Gary Anderson will be well aware.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3091 on: July 30, 2018, 10:05:36 AM »

Wow what a tournament, absolutely loved it, amazing final.

Gary a legitimately deserving winner, pretty sure he played the best darts, show the most bottle, rode his luck and contributed to the best games. Barney game, Cullen game, de Zwaan game and the final vs Mensur were all incredible games!

I think in the fall out of the Matchplay there will be a few people highly disappointed, I think most upset with his showing will be Micheal Smith - fresh of a win in the WSOD, PL final and what was shaping up to be a real stand-out year, the draw opened right up in front of him and he's got his eye firmly set on Chizzy and Whitlock #8 and #7 ahead of him, to ultimately go out to Chizzy in a game he for sure thinks he should have won, if he's pushing a a top 6 spot he's gonna have to take advantage of opportunities like this.

Another person who will be fuming is Adrian Lewis, he had the toughest draw but again it opened up for him, having just crept back into the top 16 and showing some good form he's let Webster and Cullen leap frog him and now he's outside the top 16 again, back to the floor grind for Jackpot but he's gonna need to put in a major run at some point, I still have faith though, I think we'll see him back towards the top 10 after the worlds.

Rob Cross... A tournament that pretty much summed up his year, brilliant in round 1 and then couldn't hold it together vs a tough opponent in the 2nd - this is darts in 2018, the top 16 (24 to 40 too) is littered with players who can turn over anyone if they dont play at least a solid B+ game and Cross' inconsistency is his downfall this year. He' still on his freeroll year of no ranking money losses and his hunt for world #2 seems somewhat inevitable but he keeps letting chances to over-take PW slip him by. He really wants to consolidate on last years success as he has £600,000 to defend in 2019.

Obviously most delighted will be Mensur and Gary - Mensur, who is defending a fair bit of money this year, is putting some great showings in and improving, Gurney, who is still above him @ #5 is on the decline for prize money and Mensur after his final is now £14k off Gurney, I think we'll see Mensur as world #5 pretty soon and I think he's probably the 5th best player on the world on merit. Gary, who after a below par worlds for him, with back injury worries, looked like he was potentially facing a slip down the top 10, after his dusted a 5-1 lead to lose 7-5 to Smith on night 1 of the premier league (a match which might have been a very significant match for the course of the year!) things didn't look too rosy for Gary's rankings future. 4 Ranking wins, a WSOD win and both Majors later, Gary's looking very good and a near £200k buffer over Daryl and Mensur in #5 #4 should be plenty to keep himself @ #4 for the rest of the year bar any disastrous major results. £65k behind Cross is too big of a bridge with Voltage defending nothing, and the £105k lead Wright has over him, given Wright plays a much bigger schedule and Gary is defending final money at the worlds mean I think Gary will have to settle for world #4 for the time being.

I'm particularly happy for Joe Cullen, finally in the world top 16 after touching it for years, his floor form has always kept him in the top 24 but his lack of composure in the majors has halted his climb up the rankings, after a strong year on the euro tour and a quarter final here, he has a great platform now to build and try look to a top 10 - it's a very tough field he is in though so a month of bad form and you're probably out of there. Darren Websters great year and solid tournament has him with a decent buffer (~£38k) in the top 16, and he's another one with his sights on the top 10, and rightly so.

One of the big, if not biggest stories of the tournament was Jeffrey de Zwaan, MVG, Lewis, Chisnall, and then rampant Gary Anderson finally stopped him, a good showing at the GSOD last yr, beaton MVG in rnd 1 of BOTH majors this year (incredible) certainly looks like a man to replace Barney on the World cup team eventually....that being said, he's still world #50, and as we say so many times the floors and the euros in how you move up the rankings, he's fairly locked for a Grand Prix spot and seems to love the big stage... £180k off the top 16 is a big gap.

Month of from rankings darts now, the WSOD tours down under, never quite the drama of a ranking major, but usually some cracking little tournaments. We also get to see what sort of nick Corey Cadby is in following his return to AUS over last 3-4 months... 
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arbboy
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« Reply #3092 on: July 30, 2018, 10:42:38 AM »

The OOM is in real danger of just being about turning up at the world's and getting a result.  The prize money is so weighed to the world's its crazy.  The Matchplay should legit be a £200k ftw and £100k for 2nd and £50k for semis imo.   It is crazy it isn't far off prize money wise the other 'sky majors'.  It should be head and shoulders in 2nd place.  This would in turn make the overall rankings less subject to variance imo.

Great summary of the week Dave.  Always enjoy reading your thoughts as they are usually pretty similar to mine.  #rankingsnerds
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arbboy
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« Reply #3093 on: July 30, 2018, 10:54:53 AM »

when does Gurney's money start falling off?  I think he is due a big correction.  Don't think having a kid will help him much either.  His missus always looks really intense/needy in the crowd during the walk ons.  You know my views on him generally are that he is over rated.
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Horneris
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« Reply #3094 on: July 30, 2018, 10:58:16 AM »

Cheers for the tips and the write up lil Dave, great stuff.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3095 on: July 30, 2018, 10:49:14 PM »

when does Gurney's money start falling off?  I think he is due a big correction.  Don't think having a kid will help him much either.  His missus always looks really intense/needy in the crowd during the walk ons.  You know my views on him generally are that he is over rated.

world this year he's defending 1/4 final money, then last year was his breakout year, if he doesn't add some money to it this year, and fails to reclaim the form of last year he's in realy danger of the blunt end of the top 16, it's so competitive 24-10 that you can't really have a year off, unless you follow it up with a big major result or happen to be MVG with a £1m buffer Smiley

Agree Arb r.e the prize money, this year, the world champion for £0 would go to world #5, should be more money available for the others (I know easier said than done) but a bad showing at the worlds can ruin years, and vica versa.

LOVVVVVVVVEE the darts though, what a sport!
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #3096 on: July 31, 2018, 08:39:12 PM »

Yeah the Worlds is far too top heavy and it’s only going to get worse. Barry is obsessed with the big number for winning the Worlds rather than redistributing the money across the other major tournaments.
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arbboy
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« Reply #3097 on: July 31, 2018, 09:54:27 PM »

Yeah the Worlds is far too top heavy and it’s only going to get worse. Barry is obsessed with the big number for winning the Worlds rather than redistributing the money across the other major tournaments.

Matchplay is tougher to win for me with the heat and leg format than the worlds. 
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3098 on: August 05, 2018, 08:51:32 PM »

yeah, infinately harder just to qualify for the matchplay than the worlds too. Its a completely brutal format, 10 years ago when there wasnt a lot of competition outside the top 10 i think was a different story, nowadays with the outrageous competitiveness from 8-40 and how greulling the pro tour is there really are no easy games, certainly no gimme games for the seeds.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3099 on: August 19, 2018, 03:27:38 PM »

Business End of Year Begins Now!!

This is the league table for who is defending what between now and the end of the worlds;

1   Michael van Gerwen          Netherlands   £821,000
2   Gary Anderson                  Scotland           £243,500
3   Peter Wright                  Scotland           £177,250
4   Raymond van Barneveld   Netherlands   £144,250
5   James Wade                  England   £131,750
6   Mensur Suljovic                  Austria   £125,000
7   Dave Chisnall                  England   £124,000
8   Alan Norris                          England   £109,000
9   Kim Huybrechts                  Belgium   £85,750
10   Benito van de Pas          Netherlands    £82,000
11   Simon Whitlock                  Australia   £80,500
12   Jelle Klaasen                  Netherlands    £77,500
13   Phil Taylor                          England   £75,500
14   Daryl Gurney                  Northern Ireland          £74,000
15   Darren Webster                  England   £62,000
16   James Wilson                  England   £59,000
17   Ian White                          England   £58,750
18   Brendan Dolan                  Northern Ireland          £54,500
19   Joe Cullen                          England   £54,000
20   Chris Dobey                  England   £52,750
21   Gerwyn Price                  Wales           £51,500
22   Adrian Lewis                  England   £49,750
23   Michael Smith                  England   £49,000
24   Stephen Bunting                  England   £48,500

If you deducted the defending money from the players, the PDC OOM would look like this

1 - 1       Michael van Gerwen   Netherlands   £872,750
2 - 3       Rob Cross           England   £700,000
3 - 2       Peter Wright        Scotland        £569,500
4 - 4       Gary Anderson   Scotland   £379,500
5 - 5       Daryl Gurney   Northern Ireland    £364,750
6 - 6       Mensur Suljovic   Austria   £301,500
7 - 9       Michael Smith   England   £256,000
8 - 7       Simon Whitlock   Australia   £241,500
9 -12       Gerwyn Price   Wales   £216,000
10 - 13   Ian White   England   £204,250
11 - 14   Darren Webster   England   £197,250
12 - 8   Dave Chisnall   England   £184,750
13 - 16   Joe Cullen   England   £176,000
14 - 23   Johnny Clayton   Wales   £168,750
15 - 18   Adrian Lewis   England   £165,000
16 - 10   James Wade   England   £164,250
17 - 21   Mervyn King   England   £153,750
18 - 20   Stephen Bunting   England   £147,000
19 - 27   John Henderson   Scotland   £146,000
20 - 15   Kim Huybrechts   Belgium   £145,000
21 - 25   Steve Beaton     England   £136,000
22 - 26   Kyle Anderson   Australia   £134,750
23 - 11   Raymond van Barneveld   Netherlands   £131,750
24 - 24   Steve West   England   £131,000


A few others to mention are;

Chris Dobey, who's defending £56k out of £136k, Dimitri van den Bergh, defending £26k out of £113k Brendan Dolan defending £54k to of £11k, James Wilson defending £59k out of £156k, Cristo Reyes & Robert Thornton both defending £46k out of £146k.


The Rankings Majors we have coming up with prize pools are;

Grand Prix 30th September

Winner                      £100,000
Runner-up                      £45,000
Semi-finalist              £23,500
Quarter-finalist              £15,000
Second round losers      £8,500
First round losers      £5,000

European Championship 25th October

Winner          £100,000
Final                  £40,000
Semi Final          £20,000
Quarter Final    £15,000
Last 16         £10,000
Last 32         £5,000

Grand Slam of Darts 11th Novemeber

Winner                   £110,000
Final                           £55,000
Semi Final                   £28,500
Quarter Final           £16,000
Last 16                   £10,000
Last 32 Group 3rd   £5,000
Last 32 Group 4th   £3,000
Group Winner Bonus   £2,500

Players Championships 23rd Novemeber

Winner           £100,000
Final                   £40,000
Semi Final           £23,000
Quarter Final   £12,500
Last 16           £8,000
Last 32           £5,000
Last 64           £2,500


As well as 6 more Player Championship Tournaments, and 4 more Euro Tour events.

As you would expect, most of the top players are gtd to be in all the majors, however a few worrying ommissions;

The Grand Prix: Currently Kyle Anderson, Jelle Klaasen, Benito van de Pas, and Dimitri van den Bergh are all some way off qualifying, Jamie Lewis and Vincent van der Voort are both under £1000 off sneaking in, Dimitri would need £10k minimum to get himself in.

The European Championships: The two biggest names that don't look likely to be turning up are Gary Anderson and Raymond van Barnevald. Gary makes a conscious decision not to play on the Euro Tour and you could argue it wouldn't take a schedule or more than 2-3 tournaments a yr to get himself there, RVB on the otherhand has failed at the qualification stage a few times and having nicked his way into 1 petered out early. Unlike Gary who's stronghold in the world top 10 is under little to no threat this year, Barney's place in the top 16 is at huge risk and not being in this tournament (especially having tried to qualify) is close to a disaster for him. Others who really should be there but aren't are; Jamie Lewis, Dimitri van den Bergh, Josh Payne and Krystof Ratajski. Jamie Lewis and Dimitri are both players who enjoy stage darts more than the floor, are young, motivated to travel and extremely talented, guys like Chris Dobey, Willie O'Connor, Luke Humphries are in the same boat and have managed to build secure themselves a place.

Grand Slam of Darts: One of the tougher ones to get yourself in, Barney is in on the grace of his World Cup win, Ian White, Mervyn King, Jeffrey de Zwaan and even old boy Mickey Mansell are in there, Corey Cadby is in there if he can get his visa issues fixed, Dimitri's world youth title gets him a gtd spot too. People currently missing though are; James Wade, Simon Whitlock, Dave Chisnall and Daryl Gurney - thats 4 of the top 10 in the world currently not in there, which is kinda crazy. Euro Tour, PPC win, or a Final in the Champs League, Grand Prix, World Series or Euros and some qualifers are the remaining chances, so wouldn't be surprised to see at least 2 of them sneak in. Others not in are; Adrian Lewis, Darren Webster, Kim Huybrechts and Joe Cullen.

Players Championships: Barney is the only high profile missing man from this, and he's miles off too, currently 117th on the Pro Tour OOM with £5500 in prize money, he'll need to add £28-30k at least to get himself in and that really takes a bit of doing, yet another ranking tournament he wont be in during a very tough period for him.

Then we have the yearly get out of jail card for someone....

World Championships 13th December.

Winner                   (1)   £500,000
Runner-up                   (1)   £200,000
Semi-finalist           (2)   £100,000
Quarter-finalist           (4)   £50,000
Fourth round losers   (Cool   £35,000
Third round losers   (16)   £25,000
Second round losers   (32)   £15,000
First round losers   (32)   £7,500

Everyone is in it, everyone gunning for it, and this is going to be the biggest ever, you need to reach the semis of the Grand Slam and Grand Prix combined to make as much as a 1/4 final here. Like Arbboy said, crazy weight on the worlds, but it can shoot guys in and out of the top 16, and the draw is crucial, with dangerous players all over the place no-one gtd an easy quarter final run any more!

This is my predicted post WC rankings;

1. MVG
2. Rob Cross
3. Peter Wright
4. Gary Anderson
5. Mensur Suljovic
6. Micheal Smith
7. Daryl Gurney
8. Simon Whitlock
9. Darren Webster
10. Ian White
11. Adrian Lewis
12. James Wade
13. Dave Chisnall
14. Gerwyn Price
15. Joe Cullen
16. Johny Clayton

Anyone else wanna post some guesses Smiley
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #3100 on: August 20, 2018, 12:34:37 PM »

Too good!

Barney is in a world of hurt. He’s almost certain to be drinking in the last chance saloon at the Worlds where he’s going to need a deep run. An early exit and he’s outside the top 16 and pretty much screwed given his schedule and struggles on the floor. At his age I can’t see him grinding on the tour to get back in the top 16. I suspect if he goes out early in wolrds we won’t see too much more of him on TV. Chuck, VDP and Klaasen in real bother too given their current form.

Euro Tour back soon. I’ve been starting to get withdrawal symptoms.
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« Reply #3101 on: August 20, 2018, 12:55:21 PM »

Fantastic read, Lil'D. Thanks.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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« Reply #3102 on: August 20, 2018, 05:30:49 PM »

The detail in these write ups is something else, great stuff.
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Horneris
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« Reply #3103 on: August 21, 2018, 01:31:10 PM »

https://www.live-darts.com/category/off-the-oche/twelve-year-old-prodigy-wins-cambridgeshire-open-20180820/

A 12 year old beating "Rapid" Ricky Evans must've been amusing to watch. He will be able to buy a lot of strawberry bonbons with £1,000!
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3104 on: August 22, 2018, 03:55:49 PM »

Too good!

Barney is in a world of hurt. He’s almost certain to be drinking in the last chance saloon at the Worlds where he’s going to need a deep run. An early exit and he’s outside the top 16 and pretty much screwed given his schedule and struggles on the floor. At his age I can’t see him grinding on the tour to get back in the top 16. I suspect if he goes out early in wolrds we won’t see too much more of him on TV. Chuck, VDP and Klaasen in real bother too given their current form.

Euro Tour back soon. I’ve been starting to get withdrawal symptoms.

Yes Barney in a world of hurt.

I dont see him having a deep run in any major, its strange how if you had to pick 5 guys to take on MVG in a stage semi final, Barney would probably be in there... if you had to pick 20 people to beat Dave Pallet in round 1 of the UK Open, I dont think Barney would make the list.
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