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Author Topic: Darts Betting and discussion  (Read 170480 times)
Killerkilsby
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« Reply #3060 on: May 10, 2018, 09:16:08 PM »

 
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Karabiner
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« Reply #3061 on: May 10, 2018, 09:21:58 PM »



+1 
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"These are my principles if you don't like them I have others"

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arbboy
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« Reply #3062 on: May 10, 2018, 09:53:48 PM »

Can't happen.  Never in doubt!  only went evens in running the 600/1 acca.  Still to be done.  Will it ever be done?
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Ledders
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« Reply #3063 on: May 10, 2018, 10:24:08 PM »

for fucks sake the treble would have done nicely
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arbboy
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« Reply #3064 on: July 08, 2018, 12:00:38 AM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-matchplay/world-matchplay/winner

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_World_Matchplay_(darts)

One of the most lopsided draws ever form wise in the world matchplay.  Draw just been made this week.

Rob Cross is an incredible price ew in the bottom half.  7/1 1/2 1,2 at 365/victor is incredible ew value.  Most firms are 1/3 1,2 so beware. 7/1 1/2 1,2 probably better than 8/1 1/3 1,2 at betfair sportsbook.   

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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3065 on: July 12, 2018, 03:10:28 PM »

Yeh. Top half is absolute carnage.
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arbboy
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« Reply #3066 on: July 12, 2018, 03:49:23 PM »

Was in a Yates bar last night watching the football (see how the other half live!) and there was an advert in the toilets for sky sports darts and Jackpot was the poster boy for it!  Maybe he isn't totally gone at the game after all!
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3067 on: July 12, 2018, 04:20:30 PM »

Halfway point! Rankings update!!

After the World Champs, the rankings had gone through a bit of turmoil, the three biggest points were Rob Cross' remarkable rise to world #3, Adrian Lewis' remarkable fall to world #20 and of course Phil Taylor giving nearly everyone a leg up by exiting the rankings ranked world #5.

Life right at the top is barely even worth discussing, MVG sits over £1m clear and his relentless hoovering up of majors and ranking events (already with 12 ranking victories this yr already, in the "quiet time" with a relatively low particpation rate (for him) he was always going to be somewhat un-moveable. However, 2016 was a real champagne year for the green machine, he won every major (bar the inaugural champions league) including the worlds, so whereas he's the one man you can always trust to defend ranking money, it's actually very difficult for him to add to his ranking tally this year (bar the inflated prize money) and he'd need a clean sweep of the majors. Rob Cross, who started the year with £1.2m to make up on mighty mike was the only man with a shot given he is defending £0. We're at the halfway stage and Cross, who despite convincingly demonstrating that he is in fact world class and almost certainly here to stay has actually been relatively lacklustre. His floor form (which was imperious in 2017) has been fairly sketchy and he's actually been very poor on the Euro tour, and wasn't able to capitalise on MVG early exit from the bizarre UK open this year. He's only added £70k to his tally so far and MVG has very impressively managed to increase his by £3000! Sounds like nothing but when you're basically defending top prize every week that is some feat! The guy is just different league.

One man, who was potentially getting himself in a bit of bother this year Gary Anderson. Thanks to Rob Cross he finds himself #4 which puts him on course to MVG at the semi's of the majors, and with Gary playing a much lighter schedule than his fellow top 6 sub-standard performance in the majors could end up seeing Gary slip down to the back end of the top 16, and with his commitment to the tour fairly limited at best I have serious doubts if he'd ever be back to the top of the rankings. I don't know if this has motivated him or not but he's certainly started the year with a lot of bite, he was able to capitalise on the bizzare goings on at minehead and canter through a pretty weak draw to pick up the opening major of the year, along with 5 pro tour wins and he's stuck £90k onto his tally. Gurney has added about £15k to his total so far this year and isn't really looking too dangerous , Mensur looks the more likely to challenge him but he is defending a fair whack this year and realistically it looks like the top 4 is staying where it is.

The biggest bit of bother facing anyone was Adrian Lewis, down to world #20 and starting to really drift away from the world top 16, and right at the head of a VERY competitive bunch right behind him, combined with lots of doubts over his work ethic and rumours of him still nursing a bit of a back problem which lead him to need to change his throw slightly, things were looking extremely ropey for Jackpot. His first contribution of the year of any note was his (seemingly random) outburst on Jose Justica in a UK open qualifier, like many I had my head in my hands and felt like his head was just rolling. Since then howeverthings have been pretty much consistently promising for him, he got very unlucky @ the UK open when the draw really opened up for him, ran into Dirk Van Duijvenbode in inspired form and did pretty much nothing wrong there, played 4/6 UK open qual, all 16 pro tours, making 2 finals and 3 semi's (which is actually no mean feat with his ranking) and featured in 5/8 of the euro tours, making a final and a semi. He's put £21k onto his rankings and JUST crept back into the world top 16, unfortunately that gives him the pleasure of an MVG 2nd round meeting at the matchplay which is the first really big money spot of the year. All in all, I would say the future looks fairly good for Jackpot.

1 man who deserves huge credit thus year is James Wade, 12 months ago I was backing him to lose in nearly every game, despite some tiny improvements in the back end of last year, the future was looking very grim for Wadey, who was sliding dangerously out of the top 16 and I genuinely thought this was going to be the start of fairly swift death. 2018 though has seen him totally re-born, and he's been putting in some great performances and result (whilst not being particularly notable) have been solid enough to see him back into the top 10. Just like Lewis his work ethic has been extremely good, barely missing anything and now he's back seeded for the Euros with the way he's playing I think he's got a solid, solid chance of building on his top 10 spot this year.

Few people making some good moves so far this year are; Darren Webster, who's shot himself into the top 16 now and is proving himself to be a real nasty draw for anyone, Ian White who remains one of the most consistent guys on the floor but falling short in the majors which is what stops him from progressing into the top 10, there is no doubt he is good enough. Gerwyn Price (despite his total headloss fro the PL) has started to re-find some form and moved himself to #12, Johny Clayton won a euro tour and is now challenging the pack just behind the top 16, and Jermaine Wattimena is putting a string of good performances together and he is making a move.

Benito van de Pas has really fallen away, his new darts which he said would eliminate bounceouts are just not working at all, Barney has basically just not played participating in only 8 ranking events so far this year and not qualifying for any of the four euro tours he attempted, Dimitri van den Bergh promised great things at the back end of last year but has been extremely poor on the floor so far, he was outstanding at the world cup, nearly won the german masters and continues to put in 105+ perofrmances on stage, unfortunately his floor form isn't there and as a result he's a million miles from a matchplay slot, even though he'd start as a favrouite vs the vast majority of the field. Darts these days is so competitive.

Guys to watch coming into the "business" half of the year;

1. Jermaine Wattimena
2. James Wade
3. Max Hopp
4. Ian White
5. Darren Webster


Guys to worry for;

1. Chizzy
2. Barney
3. Jelle Klaasen
4. Benito van de Pas
5. Robert Thornton

Guys who are ranked way below their ability and need a push from;

1. Dimitri van den Bergh - #37
2. Chris Dobey - #33
3. Steve Lennon - #48
4. Joe Cullen - #18
5. Steve West - #25

With Matchplay coming along, great spot for anyone, especially in the bottom half of the to make some moves!
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« Reply #3068 on: July 12, 2018, 04:54:29 PM »

Sick write up as per Dave, ty!
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #3069 on: July 12, 2018, 05:55:10 PM »

Matchplay!

The top half of the draw is absolute mayhem, MVG is a justified favourite, his draw is horrid but he won't care, he cannot be odds on for this tournament with the draw he has so "The Field" vs MVG @ 2.0 on Bet365 looks automatically good value to me, even though the market is 1.72/2.0 and opposing MVG typically never ends well for any of us Cheesy Gary has an even worse draw and a terrible record here, not for me at 11/2, the top half horrors also rule out Barney/Smith/Lewis/Gurney for me. Gonna be some great games here!

By contrast, the bottom half is full of great EW shouts, the third quarter looks to be the weakest by a long way, Jelle and Big Hendo @ 200/1 and 250/1 are clear swerves, Jelle cannot hack it in the long formats following his wrist injury, and a first round tie against Wright isn't gonna get him going much. Hendo is capable of beating anyone but he's notoriously poor in hot conditions and the winter gardens tends to be incredibly hot, loads of spots for outside pokes on big John, but blackpool defo not the place! Richard North is a guy with a lot of potential, and an opener vs an inconsistent Whitlock might give him some momentum alongside a pleasant draw, however it's too early for him, big questions over his bottle and he runs out of steam too early. Wouldn't be surprised to see him cause some problems but even at 200s im staying well away.

Kim @ 125s looks pretty good when he has a good opener vs Hendo (even though being in the evening should be a little cooler for JH) and he's in some OK form, just not got the consistency for me even at 3figure price. When I first saw the draw I thought we'd have a great price on Wadey, but 33s just too skinny, Whitlock has the easier opener and is 80s so I cant really see any reason to back Wade at more than half the price. Jermaine Wattimena is a man on a mission right now and proving very hard to beat, in this quarter, even with a very tough opener 300/1 looks very attractive. No doubting that Peter Wright has the easiest draw in the competition, however all the confusion surrounding which darts he uses and his wobbly mental game just makes me so nervous backing him, he knows how to get a win though even when things ain't quite going his way which is a nice skill for a tournament like this...

The bottom quarter is definately tougher than this one, the easy ones to rule out for me are Beaton and King - both have terrible records here, both do not tend to be as effective in the long formats these days and King in particular also struggles in the heat, even though his opener is @ 9pm and Cross does always feel beatable these days despite the attractive 200/1 & 150/1 prices these two not for me.

I could get persuaded for basically anyone else in this quarter, Mensur @ 28s is interesting, his draw is kinda good and he has been absolutely awesome recently, I have to imagine he was offered a spot @ Shanghai and Vegas but refused. He's not starting as a dog to anyone bar Wright or Cross in this half and he certainly isn't anywhere near 2/1 vs either of them. Not going to the World Series might give him a real edge here too.

This might just be Ian White's time, for him to have never made a major semi final is close to a disgrace for a player of his quality, his tour form has been great this year, he also has the advantage of no travelling to the WSOD events and his draw is also kinda ok. 80s a big price for an EW punt. Darren Webster has quietly turned himself into quite the dangerous player, unfortunately for him his draw isn't THAT great but he put in a great performance last year and he's so hard to beat, another very tempting big EW price @150/1.

Max Hopp and Steve Lennon are 200/1 and 300/1 respectively. Hopp this year is totally new man, shame he's just dropped his form a little and his most likely route to the semi is White/Mensur/Cross so not this time for me, although I wouldnt be surprised to see myself backing him for something this year! Lennon just made an ET final and gave MVG a good game, 300/1 is massive but again quite a tricky draw and I do worry about his nerves.

Rob Cross...... on form will walk through this half without blinking, but he's become very prone to throwing real howlers in and winning games doesn't always look as easy as it did 12 months ago for him...his path is ful of guys like Webster, King, White, etc where if you don't play well you tend to get to get beat, not to mention Mensur on riotous form and Peter Wright is very tough to beat in the long format games. Long format and 1 game/day will defo play to his strengths though so I think it's a very attractive EW bet but not without some worries, Rob Cross EW also has the advantage that should he get to the final vs MVG he is for sure the most likely to actually win that game!

So to summarise!

Hopp, Lennon both just run into too much trouble early and Hopp has just dropped off a little, 200s/300s tempting as hell but not this time. Wattimena has a much easier draw so I don't see any reason to back either of those 2 over him at the big prices... White and Whitlcok both 80s, Whte is playing better and more consistent but Whitlock has the easier draw and White major tournament voodoo might be a factor, I realllllly wanna back White but common sense just tells me that Whitlock is the better bet. Peter Wright has the best draw and on paper looks the best EW bet on the card @ 10/1 even though there is the random Wright factor which has smashed into loads of bets over the years Cheesy I think by far the most likely big price to cause an upset in this half of the draw is Darren Webster, wish it was 200s but 150s is enough for me to get stuck in.

I'd reccommend;

Small bet Field vs MVG 2.0
Reasonably big bet winning quarter 4th quarter 5/1

Medium Peter Wright 10/1 EW
Medium Mensur Suljovic 28/1 EW
Small Darren Webster 150/1 EW
Small Jermaine Wattimena 300/1 EW

I genuinely cannot explain why I'm going White 80/1 over Whitlock 80/1 but I am....perhaps I just don't like Whitlock that much because i lose every bet he's involved in !!!!
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 05:59:07 PM by SuuPRlim » Logged

arbboy
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« Reply #3070 on: July 12, 2018, 09:20:55 PM »

great write ups as ever Dave.  Thanks for posting.  The extreme summer heat def put me off Hendo at a huge price.
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« Reply #3071 on: July 13, 2018, 12:29:02 PM »

Really like two bets today on the darts;

Siego Asada / Peter Wright O8.5 legs Evens (b365) and Roydon Lam / Gary Anderson O7.5 legs 5/6

Both guys can suffer from tiredness and Gary is notorious for never practising during heavy travel schedules. Both these players are accomplished in asian darts, and both have competed on the world cup and have experience playing on stage and vs big PDC guys.

I also have had a small bit of Cross 6-0 @ 9/4 from brief clip of this guy he looks to play quite quick and usually it's the slow qualifiers that upset the big guys.
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« Reply #3072 on: July 13, 2018, 03:02:48 PM »

Really like two bets today on the darts;

Siego Asada / Peter Wright O8.5 legs Evens (b365) and Roydon Lam / Gary Anderson O7.5 legs 5/6

Both guys can suffer from tiredness and Gary is notorious for never practising during heavy travel schedules. Both these players are accomplished in asian darts, and both have competed on the world cup and have experience playing on stage and vs big PDC guys.

I also have had a small bit of Cross 6-0 @ 9/4 from brief clip of this guy he looks to play quite quick and usually it's the slow qualifiers that upset the big guys.


Good darts thumbs up
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arbboy
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« Reply #3073 on: July 22, 2018, 01:11:25 PM »

Nice start MVG busto'd the first night.  What a chance for Jackpot to luck box his way into a result with him dodging the dreaded '16 seed' spot in the second round.  He really really needs to get his head down this week.
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« Reply #3074 on: July 22, 2018, 10:00:57 PM »

Such a bizarre game, the highest average of the first round so far, seemed to have the game under control but then out of nowhere just didn't. Darts is tough, you give people darts to win legs consistently then you'l get beat. Blackpool such a tough venue, Gary averaged under 97 but it looked like a 100+.

One of the biggestthings that I was considering before this was how the WSOD gys would be in this early round after some intense travelling over the past 2 weeks, MVG didn't look great in Vegas, Shanghai or here and I think the travelling toko its tole a bit, combined with a young family, heavy schedule etc, no surprise he's struggled - more of a surprise it doesn't affect more.  Micheal Smith and Gary Anderson have exactly the same situation (maybe a little less intense) each won a WSOD event, and put in two of the best performances of the round.

Price looked really struggling, he's been nursing his injury for a while but i think he was mostly just knackered, tough to know exactly how Gurney was affected - he hasn't been in great form but got the job done here and there, he played poorly but won, so fair play.

Think it's all going to give Wade and Wright a nice advantage them having 2 extra days to chill out will be nice, Wade must realllllly realllllllly fancy this, in good form at one of his favourite venues.... can't wait to see how he plays. The age old question too, what darts will Peter Wright use??
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