Racing Thread

[typhoon13]

3.35 Bev   I really quite like Economic Crisis @ 12/1. On a winning mark, will like ground, not beaten far on Good ground on recent run. Mulrennan flying at the moment, yard not so much. Have also had a smaller bet on Cadeaux Pearl & 6-1.  
Welcome feedback as always.

Only problem i see here is the first two in the betting have trap 1 and 3

Along with the 5 furlongs at Chester, the 5 furlongs at Beverley is probably the biggest and best known draw bias in the country. Quite simply *low drawn runners at Beverley over 5 furlongs have a massive advantage. The only problem with this is that everybody knows it, and therefore this fact will already be built into the price of a specific horse and so its very hard for knowledge of this particular draw bias to make you any money. The bias is not just due to being drawn on the inside of a tight turn, but also the nature of the 5 furlong course at Beverley means that due to the undulations of the course, the wider drawn runners are actually starting lower down the hill than the inside runners. Which is obviously a disadvantage.

Saying that, if its good enough it will win

Good luck

[simonnatur]

Thanks very much, didn't know the draw bias was so pronounced - Oddschecker not very helpful there. Did read this, maybe he's just a born optimist lol (talking about Mey Blossom in same race):

"Simon Whitaker, the Scarcroft trainer's son and assistant, said

"She's in at Beverley on Thursday, too, so we'll look at the track and make a decision tomorrow."

Although the home-bred daughter of Captain Rio has seemingly been impinged by an outside draw in stall nine, Whitaker Jnr is not convinced that is as big an issue as it once was at Beverley.

He said: "With this false rail they've got at Beverley this season, they've been ducking across to the other side, so maybe it might not be a bad thing to be in stall nine."

[simonnatur]

By the by, seems a huge disparity to me in the prices of Mey Blossom who's done all her winning on good or better and Economic crisis. I'ld feel a lot happier with EC at the prices.
Have also read though that they've used an aerator on the course to help it drain, so a few showers wouldn't hurt - would hate it to dry out much more

[typhoon13]

14/1 in three places 15s on the machine

Money coming for Ambitious icarus

[simonnatur]

I discarded this one for being a bit awkward coming out of stalls a couple of times (cue it pinging and bolting up)

[simonnatur]

5.20 Newton Abbot  Fav's form over distance doesn't look very inspiring and pretty short at 5/2 in reasonable e/w race. I had a small e/w bet on Bathwick Man @ 14/1 should be ok on ground and trip, has gone well at course in past and would have needed the last run after a break.

2.50 Salisbury Likewise thought Darshini is pretty short considering he hasn't beaten much so far, thought I'ld take When Will It End 6-1 and Grigolo 7-1 against him , both of whom have proven form in much better races

[Kmac84]

Ecconomic Crisis is better in the mud, never got home over 6f at Hamilton recently. 

re the draw is this a recent bias?  Didn't all tracks change the way the draw was done, sure I read that somewhere a while back. 

[typhoon13]

Ecconomic Crisis is better in the mud, never got home over 6f at Hamilton recently. 

re the draw is this a recent bias?  Didn't all tracks change the way the draw was done, sure I read that somewhere a while back. 

The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:

Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)

Hence the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw.

These figs have to be reversed since the numberings for right hand tracks have been switched from March 31st 2011

Hope that helps

[simonnatur]

Stilla Afton  9/1    Salisbury 16:30            Small e/w bet, would have to improve significantly for step up in trip, but not impossible on breeding, some support in market
Rogue Wave 50/1 Salisbury 15:25            What can I say?, love a 50-1 shot, getting a tiny bit of value on the place part versus betfair prices, even in a "bad" e/w race?

[Rubbish2407]

5.20 Newton Abbot  Fav's form over distance doesn't look very inspiring and pretty short at 5/2 in reasonable e/w race. I had a small e/w bet on Bathwick Man @ 14/1 should be ok on ground and trip, has gone well at course in past and would have needed the last run after a break.

2.50 Salisbury Likewise thought Darshini is pretty short considering he hasn't beaten much so far, thought I'ld take When Will It End 6-1 and Grigolo 7-1 against him , both of whom have proven form in much better races

I layed the Fav thanks to this, great 1-2. Man on fire!

[BorntoBubble]

WHEN WILL IT END?!?!

and when will i be on one!

[Kmac84]

Cheers Trev, took onboard what you said about the low draw and dug myself out a whole there by getting on that winner at 6's. 

[typhoon13]

Cheers Trev, took onboard what you said about the low draw and dug myself out a whole there by getting on that winner at 6's. 

Sweet

wdwdwd

[simonnatur]

Ecconomic Crisis is better in the mud, never got home over 6f at Hamilton recently.  

re the draw is this a recent bias?  Didn't all tracks change the way the draw was done, sure I read that somewhere a while back.  

The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:

Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)

Hence the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw.

These figs have to be reversed since the numberings for right hand tracks have been switched from March 31st 2011

Hope that helps

The result doesn't lie, finishing order stall 1,2,7   Expensive 4th for Economic Crisis - thought I was nailed on for place money. I can see that she was forced to use a lot of energy from the off to get to a decent position. Hopefully I'll get my money back another day.

[simonnatur]

Rogue Wave 50/1 Salisbury 15:25            What can I say?, love a 50-1 shot, getting a tiny bit of value on the place part versus betfair prices, even in a "bad" e/w race?

Finished 7th, went off 25-1 and had fair bit of trouble in running - don't know if it really cost a place though