Racing Thread

[typhoon13]

Ecconomic Crisis is better in the mud, never got home over 6f at Hamilton recently. 

re the draw is this a recent bias?  Didn't all tracks change the way the draw was done, sure I read that somewhere a while back. 

The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:

Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)

Hence the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw.

These figs have to be reversed since the numberings for right hand tracks have been switched from March 31st 2011

Hope that helps

The result doesn't lie, finished order stall 1,2,7   Expensive 4th for Economic Crisis - thought I was nailed on for place money. I can see that she was forced to use a lot of energy from the off to get to a decent position. Hopefully I'll get my money back another day.

Yeah the other 5 furlong race finished stall 4,1,9  with stall 2 a N/R

Economic seemed to go slightly left on the break which would not help

[simonnatur]

Stilla Afton  9/1    Salisbury 16:30            Small e/w bet, would have to improve significantly for step up in trip, but not impossible on breeding, some support in market

Pretty weak rationale for a bet and correspondingly poor result - at least I kept the stakes small

[Kmac84]

Very unlucky Simon.  Nealry the world.   

[simonnatur]

Thanks just seen result, Bugger, official - as Tikay would say.

[simonnatur]

Thought it worth pointing out that I'm just posting these to keep track of my thought processes, hopefully get some feedback and monitor how they pan out. If I learn something along the way and it makes me a bit more disciplined, that's all to the good.

4.45 Beverley  Think the form of Grand Proposal's third to Grigolo who won again yesterday, reads pretty well in the context of this race. I've had a decent bet at 9/2 and hope to lay some off later in the day if the price shortens.(currently beats Betfair in thin market) Also had a saver on Abbey Angel as she has the better draw.

[simonnatur]

4.00 Salisbury   Master Carpenter 10/1 small e/w bet.  Consistent, decent level of form and bonus of being versatile ground-wise in case we get heavy rain

[Marky147]

I backed Grand Proposal last night, too. Optimistic after Grigolo winning under again, under a penalty.

Had Anjaal in my tracker after the Lennox Stakes last month, which was a group 2, and he was a close 3rd to Es Que Love.

Will have to chuck a saver on the Carpenter too now.

Chucked them both in a trixie with Spiritual Star, who is running in the 315 @ Newmarket.

Looks like they have cut one of its legs off this morning though, if you go by Oddschecker

[simonnatur]

So much for laying some off on Grand Proposal - massive drifter, not happy

at least the saver bet did it's job

[Marky147]

The writing was on the wall for us early doors...
.
I didn't see Anjaal's race, but the Spiritual Star ran  a strange race, and I only caught the end of Grand Proposal's race.

[simonnatur]

6.00 Newmarket   Regal Parade   would have been much happier with the 12-1 available last night and just missed the 7-1 today, still felt he's worth a small win bet at 6-1 , with doubts in my mind about so many of the others in this race. Should be happy on the ground, proven form at much higher level and should be happily staying on at the finish if in the mood. Just a shame this feels quite marginal at 6-1.

7.00 Nmkt  Tullia 9/2  Mainly decent form this year and with few others likely to relish the conditions, this looked an easy bet. Hot Mustard looks a very vulnerable fav to me at 11/4

[horseplayer]

Like INGENTI at 16's 7.45 Catterick tonight

14 runner heat so just a small win bet but has the track, class, going and handicap mark (almost to win)

Lots of pace on here and a good draw in Class 6 handicaps on turf recent record reads 1524125. Last run at Hamilton is why such a big price but for some reason was restrained at the start so easily forgiven. Kevin Stott is on but thats fine as he usual is and has won/ran well for him before.

[simonnatur]

7.35 Nmkt    Probably not a good sign when you don't even want to own up to the bet, but 888 were best priced 11-1 and I didn't have an account there and it's bet £10 get a free £10 bet. Robin Hood has dropped an awful long way down the weights and his better (which isn't saying much) runs have been on ground with a bit of cut.

[simonnatur]

2.30 Newcastle Escape To Glory 9/1 generally or 8/1 PaddyPower with money back 2nd or 3rd.  Cara's Request 14/1 have to forgive last poor run but like the Chester form with My Single Malt and should be fine on Gd to soft, high draw helpful.

[simonnatur]

2.30 Newcastle Escape To Glory 9/1 generally or 8/1 PaddyPower with money back 2nd or 3rd.  Cara's Request 14/1 have to forgive last poor run but like the Chester form with My Single Malt and should be fine on Gd to soft, high draw helpful.

Belated doubts about Cara's Request making all on this track, so have added Talent Scout 8-1 PP

[simonnatur]

suzi's connoisseur