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Author Topic: Mathematics and Betting Thread  (Read 16453 times)
sonour
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« Reply #90 on: May 14, 2015, 11:45:40 PM »

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As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1

i agree with this as well but good luck trying to tell your average betting shop punter the merits of an ew double on two 2/1 shots. it seems ingrained in them that you can only bet ew if its 10/1 plus.

just to complicate matters further....
what are your views on betting the imaginary 10/1 shot ew with a split stake.
i.e 100 win at 10/1
40 place at quarter odds just to get the win stake back?

its not something i do,but if i'm backing a horse for someone else he regularly does it and it winds me up no end.

It is ingrained to them because the bookies PR men and media gurus bang on constantly about 'its a good ew bet' blah blah to sell you products that are profitable for them.  When was the last time you heard a bookie pr man say 'this 4/5 fav in this 8 runner race is a cracking ew bet as the place is 1/16 on the machine and we are offering you 1/6!  These pr guys quietly go about their business 'ingraining' this bullshit into the vast majority of punters heads because that is how they earn their salaries.

The manager at my local Corals laughs every time I bet short prices each way. He's not doing it for any clever reason, he genuinely doesn't understand. These are pretty much the only bets I can get on in this shop and they are probably my most profitable. Smiley
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doubleup
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« Reply #91 on: May 15, 2015, 09:53:42 AM »





 


@doubleup
can't seem to get your calculator to work on iphone, is there another version for when i'm in the shops?

ongoing project

I'm trying to learn php to have the calculators run on the website rather than links from onedrive which don't work well on phones.

 

formatting is a bit suspect but this should work on phones

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/eachwaycalc2.html
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #92 on: May 15, 2015, 10:06:50 PM »

I have been meaning to put a post up here about each way betting more or less since I started.

First things first, I think betting a classic dirty each way using an online account is really stupid.  By classic dirty each way race I mean one with an odds on favourite and a few rags.   

Firstly you often get mugged on the win price with the bookies, so you will find yourself taking 5/1 on an 8/1 chance on the machine.  Secondly the very fact they are offering 5/1 on an 8/1 chance means that they are very aware that people are going to try and mug them on this race.  The end result is that you will often lose your account and not even get much value on the bet that cost you it.

Where you can make money and keep an account a bit longer is betting on good each way races.  So what makes a good each way race mathematically?

I am going to put togethether a couple of examples to show the difference between betting each way in a bad each way race and a good one.

Race 1 is a good each way race, we have 17 runners and get quarter the first 4.

We manage to find a runner that is 16/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 17 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 16/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 16/1 to finsh 5th, 12th or 17th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.

As we know he has a 1/17 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 4 places as 4/17.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 13/4 or just over 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 4/1.  That is a near 18% uplift on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 16/1 chances in races like this that were 16/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd make 9% return on my money each time I make an each way bet like this in the long run.

Race 2 is a bad each way race, we have 11 runners and get a fifth the first 3.

Like race 1, we manage to find a runner that is 10/1 and bang on that price on Betfair.  That means it has a 1 in 11 chance of winning.  Just thinking about this situation for a bit you can realise that this horse is probably about 10/1 to finish in any position you choose in the race.  So he is going to be 10/1 to finsh 3rd, 6th or 11th as well as first.  It is never going to be exactly this but close enough for me to be happy I am making a decent asumption.  This should all be very familiar.

As we know he has a 1/11 chance of coming in any position, we can estimate the odds he finishes in the first 3 places as 3/11.  So if I was to offer you correct odds on the place as 8/3 or just under 3/1.  Your average bookie will pay you 2/1.  That is just over an 18% haircut on the place terms from what they should offer you. 

If I could spend my life finding 10/1 chances in races like this that were 10/1 on the machine and had no horse picking skills at all I'd lose 9% of money each time I make an each way bet in the long run.
 
This is really crucial information to know if you are going to be putting a lot of each way bets on in the future.  If you do find that 10/1 chance in that 11 runner race, you just have to stop backing it each way.  Backing 10/1 chances each way is such an ingrained habit with punters that it might be hard to lose, but you should always look at the number of runners in the race before backing it each way.

Each time that horse finishes 2nd and 3rd in that 11 runner race, 95% of punters will be kicking themselves saying they should have backed it each way.   Many of your friends will happily point this out to you.  You need to be one of the 5% who knows you absolutely shouldn't have and usually it isn't even close.

Awesome post esp the bit about always backing 10/1 or 16/1 shots ew.  It is the biggest leak of all amongst rec punters.  Even if they have an edge on the win part of the bet because they are a good judge they literally set fire to that edge (and more on top usually) by betting it ew and taking on maths which you just can't beat long term.

As i have said before probably the best 100 ew bets i have ever had in my life i would say the vast majority of them have been shorter than 4/1 and 50% of them shorter than 6/4 and many decent odds on.  Just think of Doob's bolded statement everytime you want to back that 16/1 shot ew because you always have or 'it is a good ew bet' blah blah.

agreed,awesome post.
i tend to look for non handicaps where the horse i'm backing at 10/1 will win that percentage of the time, but as the race is uncompetitive the place part is better,i.e under 2/1.
the 5.30 at Tipp would be a good example betting All About Alfie at 9/1 (if i could) getting 9/5 on the place portion of the bet where the true odds are probably 6/4.





@doubleup
can't seem to get your calculator to work on iphone, is there another version for when i'm in the shops?
Just as a follow up to this Alfie was second at 14/1 while illustrates how good the BOG concession is. And it's available in lads/bald shops for those who can't bet online. Use all the ammo available to beat em
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #93 on: December 30, 2020, 11:03:16 AM »

Took a little finding this thread, time flies.....

Anyway, things getting tougher on the High St, Baldy removing treble odds from L15s from 1/1/21. No rule change in my local Paddyshack yet but I'd be surprised if they carry on.

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