2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread

[bergeroo]

Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

Just looked at the squad and none of them have more than 9 international goals. Hazard takes the pens though I think, so....

[TightEnd]

Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H

[TightEnd]

Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

Just looked at the squad and none of them have more than 9 international goals. Hazard takes the pens though I think, so....

its an interesting market

5/2 lukaku, 6/1 hazard 8/1 bar

side typically plays 4-2-3-1 so Lukaku up with Hazard central in behind probably

http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2014/03/05/world/friendlies/belgium/cote-divoire/1617993/

Hazard on pens, you would think

not too easy to see a springer at a price (mirrllas, mertens etc) getting more than the top two in the market so looks a very solid bet i think

[bergeroo]

I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.

I would agree and I have no idea how group C is the hot favourite for this. Because of Greece? Surely Cote D'Ivoire and Columbia will play at least somewhat open?

[millidonk]

Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.

[Doobs]

Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H

Think you have made a really big assumption on your teams that should qualify Rich.

Chile evens to qualify on Betfair.
Colombia 1/3

Those 2 alone get you nearly to 19/10 (~16.5/10).  Add in Brazil and Argentina's odds, you get just over 2/1.

[TightEnd]

Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.

Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 

[TightEnd]

Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H

Think you have made a really big assumption on your teams that should qualify Rich.

Chile evens to qualify on Betfair.
Colombia 1/3

Those 2 alone get you nearly to 19/10 (~16.5/10).  Add in Brazil and Argentina's odds, you get just over 2/1.

thank you.

[millidonk]

Fair points. I must admit the only things I know about Algeria are: Their nickname is the Fennec Foxes, they have not won a game in the world cup since 1982 and something like if they don't score in their first game they will break the record for most games in the world cup without scoring a single goal (although I am struggling to find the evidence to back up this fact), In 2010 their results were: Algeria 0 - 1 Slovenia, Algeria 0 - 0 England and Algeria 0 - USA 1 so guessing it could be true.

Fingers crossed this Feghouli can turn things around for them, they certainly don't concede many I will give them that!

[horseplayer]

Feghouli is pretty well known to be fair

Been at Valencia since 2010

Not been great this season good player no superstar imo

[KitKeeper]

Marco Reus to be Germany's top goalscorer - 7/1...

Loew absolutely loves him and he scores a hell of a lot of goals as a midfielder... When you look at what's ahead of him, Klose really is getting on now and Reus's ratio is just as good as Muller's.

[maldini32]

Another one for the top scorer collection Hulk @ 50's with

12's top Brazil scorer is huuuge

[maldini32]

Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.

Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 

I can see the angle you're coming from, I thought about them but they do have a goal threat. The thing is if they need to win a game and they probably will even going to last game they will be a threat, as showcased in euro 2012. Japan/Ivory Coast defensively not great.

I tried to look at the opposition defences and the teams attacks. Can't see the top 2 in the market having too much of the ball v england/italy/uruguay/holland/spain/chile.

But again its all about opinions.

[maldini32]

Srna top Croatia scorer. Loves a free kick and still takes pens if i'm not mistaken. Plays full back (very attacking) or right wing. 16's with PP.

[maldini32]

Think some of these top scorer/player bets should wait til after 2nd of June once squads are confirmed. Can't imagine prices crashing too much