2014-15 NFL Discussion thread

[Evilpengwinz]

question
a RB fumbles but it goes out of play before anyone recovers where is the ball placed at the next down
same goes for a wr i suppose

I believe if the ball goes backwards, it's wherever the ball went out of bounds. If it goes forwards then it's definitely the spot where the ball was fumbled. Basically you can't gain yardage by fumbling out of bounds - Imagine 4th and short if all you had to do was stick all the receivers on the short side of the field, give it to a running back and have him run that way then fumble the ball forward across the line to gain and out of bounds to pick up the first down.

There's also a rule about fumbling forwards must be picked up by the player who fumbled the ball on 4th down, or inside the 2 minute warning, to stop a repeat of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y1SeAjv5ao

[Tal]

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/22/7432949/marshawn-lynch-run-seattle-radio-call

Holy catfish!

[Marky147]

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/22/7432949/marshawn-lynch-run-seattle-radio-call

Holy catfish!

[tikay]

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/22/7432949/marshawn-lynch-run-seattle-radio-call

Holy catfish!

Lol, "runaway dude-train".

[tikay]

question
a RB fumbles but it goes out of play before anyone recovers where is the ball placed at the next down
same goes for a wr i suppose

I believe if the ball goes backwards, it's wherever the ball went out of bounds. If it goes forwards then it's definitely the spot where the ball was fumbled. Basically you can't gain yardage by fumbling out of bounds - Imagine 4th and short if all you had to do was stick all the receivers on the short side of the field, give it to a running back and have him run that way then fumble the ball forward across the line to gain and out of bounds to pick up the first down.

There's also a rule about fumbling forwards must be picked up by the player who fumbled the ball on 4th down, or inside the 2 minute warning, to stop a repeat of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y1SeAjv5ao

Good to see you here Andy.

 

Really?

Get outa here.

[Marky147]

Want Anderson to score a couple early doors, so that Manning can just hand the ball off, and Demaryius gets minimal action!

[vegaslover]

Not a bad start to tonights game!!

[LEXUS]

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/22/7432949/marshawn-lynch-run-seattle-radio-call

Holy catfish!

Do Catfish eat Skittles?

[Marky147]

Not a bad start to tonights game!!

Loving this new Manning.

[AdamM]

About to put my weekly accumulators on, but need some advice on something.
Now Patriots have top seed sown up, should I avoid putting their home game against Bills in any bets?
I'm new to NFL betting this year, and although I understand it has some bearing, I don't know how much.

I mean, Broncos will still beat Raiders and Colts beat Titans even though it doesn't alter standings won't they?

[Tal]

About to put my weekly accumulators on, but need some advice on something.
Now Patriots have top seed sown up, should I avoid putting their home game against Bills in any bets?
I'm new to NFL betting this year, and although I understand it has some bearing, I don't know how much.

I mean, Broncos will still beat Raiders and Colts beat Titans even though it doesn't alter standings won't they?

Week 17 is a nightmare for the punters because you've got no idea who's resting, which far reaches of the playbook are going to be on display or anything else.

I would keep an eye on the news for the rest of the week and see if you can spot a trend or two in the reports to help you.

[tikay]

About to put my weekly accumulators on, but need some advice on something.
Now Patriots have top seed sown up, should I avoid putting their home game against Bills in any bets?
I'm new to NFL betting this year, and although I understand it has some bearing, I don't know how much.

I mean, Broncos will still beat Raiders and Colts beat Titans even though it doesn't alter standings won't they?

Week 17 is a nightmare for the punters because you've got no idea who's resting, which far reaches of the playbook are going to be on display or anything else.

I would keep an eye on the news for the rest of the week and see if you can spot a trend or two in the reports to help you.

Tighty mentioned another thing to factor in, if I recall correctly - even though some teams have nothing to play for, many of the players DO have an incentive to give their very best, as it affects their ratings in the draft, & thus the size of their next contract.

If I were Adam, I'd tread very warily on this.

[Tal]

About to put my weekly accumulators on, but need some advice on something.
Now Patriots have top seed sown up, should I avoid putting their home game against Bills in any bets?
I'm new to NFL betting this year, and although I understand it has some bearing, I don't know how much.

I mean, Broncos will still beat Raiders and Colts beat Titans even though it doesn't alter standings won't they?

Week 17 is a nightmare for the punters because you've got no idea who's resting, which far reaches of the playbook are going to be on display or anything else.

I would keep an eye on the news for the rest of the week and see if you can spot a trend or two in the reports to help you.

Tighty mentioned another thing to factor in, if I recall correctly - even though some teams have nothing to play for, many of the players DO have an incentive to give their very best, as it affects their ratings in the draft, & thus the size of their next contract.

If I were Adam, I'd tread very warily on this.

Yes, some players are up for free agency in the summer (say, like a couple of the big players in the Detroit defense). A couple of sacks and some highlight reel plays might add a floor to that new house they have their eye on.

[AdamM]

As I say, it's my first year betting on NFL.
I have a friend who's hosted a super bowl party for the last 20 years and I never got round to going, but am definitely going this year.

I though it would be a good way to learn what's going on fast by having accumulators every week to focus me on a lot of teams.
The plan was to get the veterans to help me pick 3-5 nailed on favourites and roll them into a bet, but by all accounts I've picked the worst year to start betting because it's been crazy, with upset after upset.

I've been keeping a form spread sheet and have managed 4 winning weeks out of 16. Of those I missed, there were some close calls, missing out by just one result. My best week was #12 where I picked a 7 game accumulator. I also picked a few upsets that confounded the veterans, including last night's Bengals win which scored me pundit points (if not money because the accumulator was already dead).

Bogey team have been Saints. "Bet on the saints at home" they said. "Hardly ever lose at home" they said.
5 home losses on the bounce.

Had a lot of success betting against dogs rather than on favourites. Anyone Vs Jets, Jags, Titans, Raiders, Bucs, Redskins has been a good tactic.

Only been betting small. Started with £25 and sadly went broke week 16, requiring a reload for the run in.
I had said any profit would be spent forst on some apparel of my team for the super bowl (who I will pick based on who's won the most games when I've backed them: currrently Patriots and Colts neck and neck), then any extra would be spent on beer for the superbowl part. Need a few wins to turn a profit now.

I also try and not mix my days/kick off times. Had a few accumulators killed Thursday night which means a re-bet to enjoy Redzone on a Sunday.

So for the final week I was planning on splitting the bets up into three.
Reasonably confident bets for sunday 6pm
longer shots/potential trap bets sunday 6pm
late kick offs

I could really have done with Broncos winning last night because they and Patriots would have been easier to back as they'd still be playing for home field advantage. Now Patriots have that tied up, I think they move into the trap bet section. I still think Broncos will be handing Raiders a shoeing but they have #2 spot sown up thanks to the win against Colts in week 1.

[AdamM]

Sunday early
Confident about
Cowboys (A) beat Redskins - AFC #1 seed still up for grabs, so expect Cowboys to throw the kitchen sink at the Reskins.
Texans (H) beat Jaguars – even when it doesn’t matter, I see the Titans being comfortable winners.
Colts (A) beat Titans – As above, don’t see any way Titans beat Colts.
Ravens (H) beat Browns – Ravens look solid favourites. As a novice, I've been watching this Johnny Football thing with interest.

Traps/longer shots
Patriots (H) beat Bills – I think I have to move this from the section above. Patriots did win the away leg by a couple of possessions, so if they needed the win I’d be confident. I still think they’ll win, but it could be a lot closer that I’d like.
Falcons (H) beat Panthers – week 11 meeting was really tight and this is a vital game for both teams. Edging towards Falcons home win, but wouldn’t want an otherwise green accumulator to hang on it.
Giants (H) beat Eagles – This is my predicted upset of the week. Eagles will probably be favourites with the bookies, but Eagles have lost 3 straight, Giants have won 3 straight and I think they’ll nail the final home win.

From the Sunday 6pms I’m skipping:
Saints @ Buccaneers – bogey team
Chargers @ Chiefs – Chargers will probably win, but one of my veterans is a Chiefs fan and I only bet against them if it’s nailed on.
Jets @ Dolphins – Close call. Jets’ Defence were brutal last week.
Bears @ Vikings – too hard to call.

Sunday late
49ers (H) beat Cardinals – Another upset. Cardinals have been collapsing since their QB woes. Only in the play off picture because of the strong opening.
Broncos (H) beat Raiders – me and my mum could give Raiders a game, so eeven if they rest players, Broncos should be fine.
Seahawks (H) beat Rams – Seahawks must be big favourites.
Steelers (H) beat Bengals – Crunch game. Steelers thumped Bengals away a few weeks ago and should do the double.

Probably a fiver each on those three bets.

Thoughts?