UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

clever

[TightEnd]

People born on the day Tony Blair was first elected Prime Minister, 1 May 1997, today become adults and voters

[TightEnd]

Did Labour over-spend?

Robert Peston

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32549892

[RickBFA]

Clegg has a battle on his hands in Sheffield Hallam.

I went to pick my daughter up from school yesterday and Labour campaigners were handing out leaflets at the school gates.

They are trying very, very hard here to unseat him.

I'm not sure campaigning literally on the gate of a school is legal is it? I'd have thought the electoral commission would have views on that type of behaviour?

[TightEnd]

Clegg has a battle on his hands in Sheffield Hallam.

I went to pick my daughter up from school yesterday and Labour campaigners were handing out leaflets at the school gates.

They are trying very, very hard here to unseat him.

I'm not sure campaigning literally on the gate of a school is legal is it? I'd have thought the electoral commission would have views on that type of behaviour?

big picture, the labour party knows that the LD is significantly less likely to do another deal with the conservatives if clegg is not leader

of course they want to win the seat anyway locally, but the extra manpower/resources into the seat is because a parliament without clegg pushes LD more into their wheelhouse in a new parliament grouping, and probably as a weaker party so able to make less demands too

i think clegg holds as tories will tactically vote for him in the constituency, but undoubtedly its tight (Ashcroft had clegg behind less than a week ago)

[TightEnd]

For the Tories, things are (still) as bad as they look.

(its a good read despite the title!)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11575323/Make-no-mistake-a-Labour-SNP-government-would-be-a-complete-disaster.html




its a strange time, the mix of votes and electoral system will produce either of

a) Labour could be wiped out in Scotland, lose in England, not stand in N Ireland but win in Wales and Ed Miliband becomes PM

b) Tories virtually non existent in Scotland, Wales and N Ireland but win England and David Cameron becomes PM

[TightEnd]

Gove says Tories will win more seats than Labour in Scotland but was coy on the details: http://specc.ie/1EVr1fk

[TightEnd]

the guardian comes out for labour http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour

[SuuPRlim]

How can anyone form a coalition with UKIP? they are going to have like 2 seats prolly. May as well form a coalition with me

Everyone gets so wound up about UKIP, whats the fucking point, they are sort of popular across the country, yes, but they only have 1 stronghold constituency and there leader isn't even an MP. They are, in the grand scheme of things utterly irrelevant.

Soon as one of the major parties stops being shit UKIP will vanish.

[arbboy]

the guardian comes out for labour http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour

About as obvious as the daily mail pledging their support to the tories!  How is that even a story? 

[Longy]

the guardian comes out for labour http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/01/guardian-view-britain-needs-new-direction-needs-labour

About as obvious as the daily mail pledging their support to the tories!  How is that even a story? 

They backed the lib dems in 2010...

[TightEnd]

How can anyone form a coalition with UKIP? they are going to have like 2 seats prolly. May as well form a coalition with me

Everyone gets so wound up about UKIP, whats the fucking point, they are sort of popular across the country, yes, but they only have 1 stronghold constituency and there leader isn't even an MP. They are, in the grand scheme of things utterly irrelevant.

Soon as one of the major parties stops being shit UKIP will vanish.

every seat is going to count

2-3 MPs might make the difference between a majority in the house for a voting bloc or not

that may mean deals with ukip, dup or on the other side green, plaid, sdlp etc...all with sub ten seats

ukip are going to poll 10-15% and be second in a lot of seats, albeit there are signs that some are being scared back to tory by fears of lab/snp

when 3-4m votes (46.1m voters) produces 2 seats and 2m votes in scotland produces 55 seats, that is going to ramp up pressures on the electoral system

the tories can't go away from the centre, labour can't go any more to the centre (pressures to go less blairite from 2007 on) so there is now two party politics is fragmented always going to be a big rump of the electorate on the right of con or the left of lab....hence the 15-20% of the vote in ukip and snp hands

(i am not a ukip supporter, just putting the opposite case)

[Teacake]

Gove says Tories will win more seats than Labour in Scotland but was coy on the details: http://specc.ie/1EVr1fk

Hills are 7/1 on this and 8/1 the draw, I tried to get on last night and was offered 14p and 12p on a clean account, my mate was offered the same on a new account. Why do they even bother?

[TightEnd]

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

Cameron says UKIP may get no seats. The bookies are giving 12/1 for that so if you believe that don't hesitate....


Clacton/Carswell will be held

next two are farage/s thanet and akers/thurrock

I am on 2, 1 is favourite. both probably ok at 7/2 4/1. i think farage might well lose. prefer thurrock for the second seat

the ashcroft polls at 4pm showed ukip being squeezed in marginals back to conservatives (which the market has been telling you has been happening as con seat numbers have been rising ) but it shouldn't affect seats where ukip has a real chance like the three above

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes reporting taking "large amounts of cash" on CON majority at 11/2

ukip switchers winning them marginal seats, late/last week surge (is the theory)