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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1329223 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #16965 on: March 28, 2019, 04:38:06 PM »

This is the easiest visual I've found so far of the breakdown of the indicative votes.


Thanks for this. I thought my MP was relatively sensible but he voted against everything except the No Deal exit.

It’s likely this is a common misconception. I reckon lots of people who think their MP is “relatively sensible” would be disappointed and shocked by their voting records. imo, ithe best way to assess whether to continue a support an incumbent MP is to look through their voting record at the HoC.

My constituency MP, Alex Sobel, is pretty good on this as he generally publishes info in advance of how he's planning to vote and why (certainly on the Brexit issues).  I think there are plenty of pro-active MPs like this, but no doubt significantly more who give no indication.  I've also seen several MPs today clarifying why they've voted certain ways (Lisa Nandy and Dan Jarvis on Twitter, for example).

Although I didn't vote for him at the general election, I've been impressed with Sobel as a constituency MP.  I've also pointed out to him via Twitter the fact that, despite this, I'd be unable to vote for him, as to do so would imply support of the Labour Party in its current state.  At the moment, a spoiled ballot paper would be my best option in a General Election, which is why it feels like a totally unsuitable vehicle to try and 'fix' the Brexit matter.  A 2nd Referendum is the only way to do that, as there'll be numerous issues wrapped up in how people choose to vote in a GE, which will continue to muddy the waters.

Given Barry Gardiner's comment's yesterday that "Labour are not a Remain Party" this would particularly apply to someone for whom Brexit is their biggest issue when it comes to voting, and who wants to support Remain in whatever form (2nd Ref, Revoke, whatever).  How do they do that in a meaningful way given that the GE decision will ultimately determine whether we get a Brexit supporting Tory government or a Brexit supporting Labour government under Corbyn?  It's literally do you want Hard Brexit or "Undefined Brexit + Communism"?  Not the most inspiring options.

Personally, I feel the Corbynista's have disregarded how much of their upturn in support at GE17 were votes from Remainers trying to do something to stop a hard Brexit coming from the increased majority that May asked people to give her, and are instead attributing it far too heavily towards them supporting Corbyn's manifesto.  If they fight any impending election on essentially the same manifesto alongside 'we will deliver a Labour Brexit' then they risk losing a huge rump of these voters, whether via (ultimately ineffective) votes to smaller parties or people simply not bothering.  Either way, it ultimately puts the Tories back into some form of Government with whomever is leading them at the time as PM, and inadvertently gives us a likely hard Brexit as the outcome alongside a PM from the right-wing of the Tory party.

Interesting stuff. I agree about the GE 17 motivation (and most of the rest, although I’m not sure about “communist”) I think another factor from GE17 that might be underrated (particularly by the Corbynista’s) is how many ‘protest’ votes Corbyn attracted, I don’t think he’ll attract nearly as many of those votes a second time. I’m less sure about how a GE now would go though and I’m sure leaving the EU under Labour would be better for the vast majority of people than leaving under the Conservatives. 
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #16966 on: March 28, 2019, 04:58:16 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead
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« Reply #16967 on: March 28, 2019, 05:02:23 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead

You are massively overrating MP’s. What would make them knowledgeable on these subjects?
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #16968 on: March 28, 2019, 05:17:21 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead

You are massively overrating MP’s. What would make them knowledgeable on these subjects?

It’s their job.

You aren’t suggesting regular people are more qualified to decide are you?

because you don’t agree with referendum as governance and you think people are too ill-informed to grasp complex issues

So your stance is you don’t think people or MPs are qualified to decide.

Good one.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #16969 on: March 28, 2019, 05:36:02 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead

You are massively overrating MP’s. What would make them knowledgeable on these subjects?

It’s their job.

You aren’t suggesting regular people are more qualified to decide are you?

because you don’t agree with referendum as governance and you think people are too ill-informed to grasp complex issues

So your stance is you don’t think people or MPs are qualified to decide.

Good one.

MP’s are (well) placed to decide, because they are elected, not because they have great insight or knowledge. That’s how democracy works and while it is the best system we have, it’s clearly deeply flawed. MP’s have much less to do with running the country than you’d think.

Nice easy example: Gove knows close to nothing about Environment Regulation and he’s genuinely bright.
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Longines
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« Reply #16970 on: March 28, 2019, 05:41:44 PM »

Thought this was a good read: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/27/the-obscene-moral-spectacle-of-theresa-may-s-resignation
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #16971 on: March 28, 2019, 05:50:44 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead

You are massively overrating MP’s. What would make them knowledgeable on these subjects?

It’s their job.

You aren’t suggesting regular people are more qualified to decide are you?

because you don’t agree with referendum as governance and you think people are too ill-informed to grasp complex issues

So your stance is you don’t think people or MPs are qualified to decide.

Good one.

MP’s are (well) placed to decide, because they are elected, not because they have great insight or knowledge. That’s how democracy works and while it is the best system we have, it’s clearly deeply flawed. MP’s have much less to do with running the country than you’d think.

Nice easy example: Gove knows close to nothing about Environment Regulation and he’s genuinely bright.

Nice easy example for you bro

Most MPs have probably read some or all of Theresa May’s proposal

Most average joes haven’t

Thus most MPs do indeed have greater insight/knowledge regarding the deal than most average joes
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« Reply #16972 on: March 28, 2019, 05:56:58 PM »

Since the negotiations to leave were framed as Divorce, then discussion about the future, there was always going to be a blind brexit to an extent.

Short of no deal or revoke I think it's quite smart of the Government to present the WA for a vote in isolation - it will probably lose of course but it does force non 'unionist' MPs to vote against Brexit in a more or less conceptual way.
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« Reply #16973 on: March 28, 2019, 05:58:41 PM »

Last nights news but this is a great graphic IMO.

 Click to see full-size image.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #16974 on: March 28, 2019, 06:16:47 PM »

I guess most MPs have a better understanding of Brexit than the majority of regular joes

When the experts fail to find a solution we figure the right move is ask the average joes to cast their knowing eyes over the issue in another referendum instead?

It’s like when a mechanic can’t find the problem with your car driving it to the church so a gaggle of my nuns can look under the bonnet instead

You are massively overrating MP’s. What would make them knowledgeable on these subjects?

It’s their job.

You aren’t suggesting regular people are more qualified to decide are you?

because you don’t agree with referendum as governance and you think people are too ill-informed to grasp complex issues

So your stance is you don’t think people or MPs are qualified to decide.

Good one.

MP’s are (well) placed to decide, because they are elected, not because they have great insight or knowledge. That’s how democracy works and while it is the best system we have, it’s clearly deeply flawed. MP’s have much less to do with running the country than you’d think.

Nice easy example: Gove knows close to nothing about Environment Regulation and he’s genuinely bright.

Nice easy example for you bro

Most MPs have probably read some or all of Theresa May’s proposal

Most average joes haven’t

Thus most MPs do indeed have greater insight/knowledge regarding the deal than most average joes

Yeah that’s fair, you have me on that. Also we’ve identified why representative democracy is a good idea. If they’re better informed than average Joe’s it seems sensible to leave the big calls to them. Like for example if they called off Brexit.

Far fewer MP’s will have read the WA than you’d think though.
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Longines
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« Reply #16975 on: March 28, 2019, 06:19:21 PM »

Now that must have been an interesting discussion with the whips this morning.

"I was pissed and went through the wrong door?"

EDIT: Ken Clarke.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2019, 06:21:46 PM by Longines » Logged
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #16976 on: March 28, 2019, 07:30:12 PM »

Since the negotiations to leave were framed as Divorce, then discussion about the future, there was always going to be a blind brexit to an extent.

Short of no deal or revoke I think it's quite smart of the Government to present the WA for a vote in isolation - it will probably lose of course but it does force non 'unionist' MPs to vote against Brexit in a more or less conceptual way.

If you believe the logic of this, then it really does need to fail (for anyone not supporting her deal).  Passing it potentially leads to a tricky legal limbo, not envisaged in the agreement to extend A50.

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111323277107044352
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« Reply #16977 on: March 28, 2019, 08:01:16 PM »

Since the negotiations to leave were framed as Divorce, then discussion about the future, there was always going to be a blind brexit to an extent.

Short of no deal or revoke I think it's quite smart of the Government to present the WA for a vote in isolation - it will probably lose of course but it does force non 'unionist' MPs to vote against Brexit in a more or less conceptual way.

If you believe the logic of this, then it really does need to fail (for anyone not supporting her deal).  Passing it potentially leads to a tricky legal limbo, not envisaged in the agreement to extend A50.

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111323277107044352

That's why I think the plan is quite smart, depending on your starting point of course.

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« Reply #16978 on: March 28, 2019, 09:45:49 PM »

It isn't far off even money a general election happening before Brexit.   What price the Tories bunging the DUP another billion or so to guarantee their suppport?   
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« Reply #16979 on: March 28, 2019, 09:53:23 PM »

It isn't far off even money a general election happening before Brexit.   What price the Tories bunging the DUP another billion or so to guarantee their suppport?   

Rich people usually win life........

Damn should have waited for Friday before posting that to make sure we had a pissed up fully riled kuku....   
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