The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[aaron1867]

7 days of checking the odds on a second vote and it’s clear to see the bookies have no idea

Wednesday (day before election): no (2/7) yes (11/4)

Sunday (after results): no (1/6) yes (7/2)

Today: no (3/10) yes (7/2)

What really are the true odds of a second vote?

[Jon MW]

Let's put it another way, so that hopefully Kush understands.

Whilst I happy acknowledged that Wenger had to go, and told anyone who cared to listen that Arsenal were going the wrong way, you would still hear me cheer them on every Saturday.

To hear me cheer for Liverpool, Spurs etc in the pub would be totally unacceptable to all other Arsenal fans regardless of the point I was trying to make.

This is why democracy is desperately flawed. You can’t actually think it is in anyway on any level like supporting a football team......Can you?

This is very, very much the problem with democracy - people make decisions based on loyalty and emotion when what is needed is analysis and rationality.

[MANTIS01]

Disagree and ‘‘tis why democracy works so well. Who gave the logical people superiority over the emotional ones? An emotional vote is equally valid and it’s the leaders who capture hearts and minds that excel. Every one of us chooses to offer our whole life to a partner we love not one who is logically correct.

Anyway considering this Hezza stuff can Labour fanboys tell me how trade unions work? When they decide to go on strike everybody who ‘feels strongly’ about working is high-fived across the picket line? That how it works?

[Jon MW]

Disagree and ‘‘tis why democracy works so well. Who gave the logical people superiority over the emotional ones? An emotional vote is equally valid and it’s the leaders who capture hearts and minds that excel. Every one of us chooses to offer our whole life to a partner we love not one who is logically correct.
...

Yes - leaders who capture hearts and minds do excel.

That's precisely the point - the leaders who are good at technical details and knowledge and strategy concerning diplomacy, the law and economics should be the ones who excel.

It's the job of the Government - to govern.

You don't need warm, fuzzy feelings for that. You need facts, analysis and expertise.

That's part of the central problem with democracy - illustrated perfectly by every metaphor and analogy to relationships and families and anything where emotion is meant to play a part.

[MANTIS01]

Disagree and ‘‘tis why democracy works so well. Who gave the logical people superiority over the emotional ones? An emotional vote is equally valid and it’s the leaders who capture hearts and minds that excel. Every one of us chooses to offer our whole life to a partner we love not one who is logically correct.
...

Yes - leaders who capture hearts and minds do excel.

That's precisely the point - the leaders who are good at technical details and knowledge and strategy concerning diplomacy, the law and economics should be the ones who excel.

It's the job of the Government - to govern.

You don't need warm, fuzzy feelings for that. You need facts, analysis and expertise.

That's part of the central problem with democracy - illustrated perfectly by every metaphor and analogy to relationships and families and anything where emotion is meant to play a part.

But those wise logical leaders better not implement policy that is merely logical to them and their sagely nodding friends.

They better implement policy that makes the people happy. Cos a happy workforce is a more productive one that grows the economy.

They did some research in Newcastle where productivity rose by 30% the week after the magpies won. Funny how the economic performance of the region rested upon emotion. Probably because the world is full of people like.

[kukushkin88]

Disagree and ‘‘tis why democracy works so well. Who gave the logical people superiority over the emotional ones? An emotional vote is equally valid and it’s the leaders who capture hearts and minds that excel. Every one of us chooses to offer our whole life to a partner we love not one who is logically correct.

Anyway considering this Hezza stuff can Labour fanboys tell me how trade unions work? When they decide to go on strike everybody who ‘feels strongly’ about working is high-fived across the picket line? That how it works?

What you describe is exactly how the system shouldn’t work. Emotional people, not in possession of the necessary information are vulnerable to being exploited. That is why people vote against their own interests and against the interests of the majority of the country.

The second part: Voting against your party, in what you believe to be the best interests of the country, isn’t comparable to crossing a picket line. I don’t think it makes sense to be a member of a union if you intend to ignore a ballot in favour of a strike but individual circumstances are always respected in my experience.

[MANTIS01]

What’s the point in being in any team if you aren’t going to respect a team decision?

[TightEnd]

What’s the point in being in any team if you aren’t going to respect a team decision?

party politics is breaking down, individuals voting leave/remain rather than sticking to older tribal loyalties. It follows that voting patterns are more fluid.

we are in a transition stage to a more European style multi party coalition government being the norm

[TightEnd]

A fun read

The new Conservative PM cannot hold an election until they deliver Brexit, and they cannot deliver Brexit without holding an election. And even if there were an election, they probably still couldn’t deliver Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/european-election-results-tories-brexit-party-farage-no-deal-eu-a8931561.html

[TightEnd]

Charles Clarke, former Labour home secretary and chairman

note that neither of Campbell and Clarke spilled the beans until after the vote closed

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile

Bercow gives big green light for MPs to block no-deal.

“The idea that Parliament is going to be evacuated for the centre stage of debate on Brexit is simply unimaginable...The idea the House won't have its say is for the birds."

[TightEnd]

Peston

"In decades covering politics, I have never known anyone as obsessively tribally Labour as ⁦campbell⁩. Expelling him so rapidly for voting LibDem, even though he did not promote what he was doing, while taking ages to expel alleged antisemites, sends out the oddest of messages. Parties that are so intolerant of political dissent rarely prosper in our first-past-post system, where the coalition is the party itself"

[TightEnd]

Tory leadership candidates so far fall into two camps on Brexit:

those advocating the catastrophic (No Deal Brexit) & those advocating the impossible (renegotiation).

especially once you listen to this

"I was crystal clear. There will be no renegotiation"

Outgoing EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker says Brexit talks will not be reopened

http://bbc.in/2EDso65

[Pokerpops]

What’s the point in being in any team if you aren’t going to respect a team decision?

There isn’t a point. But to suggest that a political party is a team is wrong.

[TightEnd]

well even most remainers would want reform, if by some slim chance we stayed in

Maybe that would be part of a "revoke" negotiation with the EU "we'll revoke if you do a, b c" under a future leftish coalition government

so i don't think remain no reform is realistic

and leave no deal is not feasible (big economic damage, we are not ready) no matter what the WTO Brexit idealists at any cost would like.

so we go round in circles again

This seems so blindingly obvious but how would you make it happen? Cameron tried and failed to get change pre-referendum it feels too late to start to do it now.
Tbf even if we could start now with BoJo or whoever at the helm what changes would be acceptable to the ERG and their like.

so back to this point, how do you make it happen?

Boris tries to renegotiate, fails

Pivots to default no deal

Remain parliament votes it down in no confidence vote (One nation tories vote with opposition. none want election but none can countenance no deal)

Voters in a 2019 GE vote on remain leave lines and not traditional party lines

Produces a nasty hung parliament where the only workable solution is a leftish/government of national unity type coalition that has to have a remain bent

Maybe corbyn goes during that process

New government says to EU "We are prepared to make the case for revoke v no deal in a 2nd ref, but to do that you really have to make it sweet, opt us out of x, rebates on y, out of z"

EU has its feet held to the fire for a change, gives some ground

2nd ref. the softer end of leavers prepared to accpet the bribe

the harder end, no deal is what we voted for, leave now and get on with it, are then into the realms of civil disobedience

We revoke.

What if Boris, or whoever, cuts straight to the making a case for revoke if you agree to x, y, z ?
Is that political suicide for him? Or just Tory Politics suicide?

well he would have been elected PM by members so safe from them unless a fresh leadership challenge emerges, 50 signatories needed. It might do, hard line ERG "No deal at any cost" is 28-30 MPs. Probably would do if (say a remainer like) Jeremy Hunt did it but if a leaver did it?

certainly high risk, not sure its political suicide just yet. Heaven knows what the electorate would do at the next GE. Tories would win a load of remainers back but lose leavers? haven't really got that far!

What would be on the shopping list though?
Some measure of control over ‘free movement’ but beyond that, what?
The EU needs substantial reforms and the UK isn’t the only country to see this. So what do we ask for to make membership palatable whilst we attempt to turn the super-tanker round?
If revoke could be sold on the basis of some concessions now and the commitment to using our membership to create change from within would that be enough?

Cameron tried all this, and only got so far.

I doubt further "would be enough" to change leaver sentiment, but it might be the way it (negotiation, future under a new PM) has to go.