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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180574 times)
MANTIS01
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« Reply #17550 on: May 27, 2019, 07:07:56 PM »

Offering voters an option to choose Leave with a deal doesn’t work...

If you include a deal every voter would need to read and understand it or we’re back to square one of people not knowing what they’re voting for, ill informed etc...

...and as Remain have pointed out several times most voters are stupid so we won’t understand complicated euro deal jibber jabber and it’ll all go tits up again

It’s like a strange backwards version of satire, where he ridicules his own position. It’s a Mantis staple.

He’s right if he means that voters being well informed would be a disaster for the Leave vote.


I don't understand. 

Apologies for the epic quote fail.


I was joking too. He said they wouldn't understand, so I said I didn't understand, but then you didn't understand.....

Kuku not understanding is staple
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« Reply #17551 on: May 27, 2019, 08:39:11 PM »

Offering voters an option to choose Leave with a deal doesn’t work...

If you include a deal every voter would need to read and understand it or we’re back to square one of people not knowing what they’re voting for, ill informed etc...

...and as Remain have pointed out several times most voters are stupid so we won’t understand complicated euro deal jibber jabber and it’ll all go tits up again

It’s like a strange backwards version of satire, where he ridicules his own position. It’s a Mantis staple.

He’s right if he means that voters being well informed would be a disaster for the Leave vote.


I don't understand. 

Apologies for the epic quote fail.


I was joking too. He said they wouldn't understand, so I said I didn't understand, but then you didn't understand.....

Kuku not understanding is staple


These guys understand staples.


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« Reply #17552 on: May 27, 2019, 11:34:50 PM »

One thing that is hugely encouraging for the country - Tommy Robinson squirming away with his tail between his legs.

The public are not stupid and have heard what he has to say and categorically said "no, thank you". I think I have seen more of him and his views than almost anyone else in the press so the idea he is being hushed up is total rubbish.

We might be unsure of where we stand at the moment but, one thing we can agree on, Tommy and his far right crowd are not the answer we are looking for.

You have Farage to thank for that, without Farage Tommy would be an MEP now
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« Reply #17553 on: May 28, 2019, 09:34:36 AM »

You have Farage to thank for that, without Farage Tommy would be an MEP now


Robinson isn’t going to give up that easy. Banned from every social media platform and still gets 38000 votes, out of votes per candidate he would have come third across the whole country. Look at the journey of  Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders.

He should carry on fleecing the rabid and the racist for a living. He is never going to make a living as an elected representative
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« Reply #17554 on: May 28, 2019, 09:47:49 AM »

You have Farage to thank for that, without Farage Tommy would be an MEP now


Robinson isn’t going to give up that easy. Banned from every social media platform and still gets 38000 votes, out of votes per candidate he would have come third across the whole country. Look at the journey of  Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders.

He got more publicity than any of my local candidates in the National press, so it is beyond ridiculous to complain about a lack of publicity.   Add to that ths sites that give a platform to his followers to spread their messages of hate, and he gets enormous exposure still. 

Other parties listed 8 candidates, but people were only voting for 1 or 2 MEPs for most parties, so dividing the vote by the likes of the greens by 8 is comedy too.

Presumably you don't see Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders as racist either?  Just wondering how racist you have to be to be called racists in your World? 
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« Reply #17555 on: May 28, 2019, 10:09:24 AM »

Must admit, whilst not a follower, I have listen to some TR stuff and nodded along, and sometimes thought he got a rough ride. However saw some footage of him with the guard down last week and any sympathy I had for him went in a heartbeat.
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« Reply #17556 on: May 28, 2019, 10:44:33 AM »

You have Farage to thank for that, without Farage Tommy would be an MEP now


Robinson isn’t going to give up that easy. Banned from every social media platform and still gets 38000 votes, out of votes per candidate he would have come third across the whole country. Look at the journey of  Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders.

I don't understand why all his supporters wear "banned from every social media platform" like it is some sort of badge of honour.

Social media platforms have clear rules on hate speech. He repeatedly broke those rules and, after multiple warnings, had his accounts closed. It's a big conspiracy theory though obv.

Putting it into perspective, 1.7 million people voted in the North West Region. He managed 38k votes and UKIP got 62k. The Brexit Party got over 550k with another 800k split amongst established parties.  People want to leave Europe so we can control immigration - that doesn't mean they all anti Islam racists. If they felt that passionately then Tommy/UKIP would have seen more support.

I am sure he won't give up and the press will continue to lap it up. The public will continue to ridicule him and his views and rightly so.
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« Reply #17557 on: May 28, 2019, 11:00:47 AM »

I must say that a big advantage for mainstream parties to take border control seriously is that it squeezes the opportunity for extremist parties to grow. That’s why it’s kinda irresponsible to dismiss that Farage poster as racism because it gives extremism more mileage, more opportunity. The EU dream of free movement is growing far right politics across Europe and along with disengagement of public in voting that makes two pretty serious consequences for Remain to ponder.
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« Reply #17558 on: May 28, 2019, 11:31:41 AM »

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

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« Reply #17559 on: May 28, 2019, 11:32:47 AM »

All the Brexit Party has achieved is give us a hard figure of what % of this country wants No Deal.

It’s 36% (vote share last week) of a 37% turnout.

So that should be that.

except no deal is the default and there is no acceptable alternative to any majority
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« Reply #17560 on: May 28, 2019, 11:33:35 AM »

the big 10k sample Ashcroft poll yesterday was a good read

Cons vote was split 50/50 between Leavers and Remainers, and Lab vote was split 30/70.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/#more-15953
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« Reply #17561 on: May 28, 2019, 11:34:05 AM »

so the Tory position remarkable.

They’ve got themselves into a situation where, for electoral reasons, they will have to embrace something which many of them think would be politically and economically catastrophic.

If they do so it will likely in turn, electorally, crush them anyway.
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« Reply #17562 on: May 28, 2019, 11:35:09 AM »

-64% of 2016 Leavers voted Brexit Party

-53% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party

-67% of Brexit Party voters want No Deal

-52% say will stay with Farage at next general election

If that happens, it's game over for the Tories

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« Reply #17563 on: May 28, 2019, 11:40:17 AM »

well even most remainers would want reform, if by some slim chance we stayed in

Maybe that would be part of a "revoke" negotiation with the EU "we'll revoke if you do a, b c" under a future leftish coalition government

so i don't think remain no reform is realistic

and leave no deal is not feasible (big economic damage, we are not ready) no matter what the WTO Brexit idealists at any cost would like.

so we go round in circles again


This seems so blindingly obvious but how would you make it happen? Cameron tried and failed to get change pre-referendum it feels too late to start to do it now.
Tbf even if we could start now with BoJo or whoever at the helm what changes would be acceptable to the ERG and their like.




so back to this point, how do you make it happen?

Boris tries to renegotiate, fails

Pivots to default no deal

Remain parliament votes it down in no confidence vote (One nation tories vote with opposition. none want election but none can countenance no deal)

Voters in a 2019 GE vote on remain leave lines and not traditional party lines

Produces a nasty hung parliament where the only workable solution is a leftish/government of national unity type coalition that has to have a remain bent

Maybe corbyn goes during that process

New government says to EU "We are prepared to make the case for revoke v no deal in a 2nd ref, but to do that you really have to make it sweet, opt us out of x, rebates on y, out of z"

EU has its feet held to the fire for a change, gives some ground

2nd ref. the softer end of leavers prepared to accpet the bribe

the harder end, no deal is what we voted for, leave now and get on with it, are then into the realms of civil disobedience

We revoke.
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« Reply #17564 on: May 28, 2019, 11:42:44 AM »

more from Ashcroft

What do you think would be the best outcome from the Brexit process? (question early last week)

UK leaving EU without a deal 27%;
with a different deal 15%;
with deal negotiated by May 8%;
remaining in EU 46%


The core problem: There is one Remain, but many Brexits.
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