The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[BigAdz]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

[TightEnd]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

[Mark_Porter]

It’s obvious the number that voted for him would have been significantly highly if the campaign could have reached the 1.2 million people that liked his fb page. If the fb page was irrelevant why was it shut? And please don’t spout the hate speech and racism bollocks because he treaded very carefully to avoid breaking any rules for a long time. Robinson tried to raise awareness of the rape gangs operating across the country a long time ago but as usual he was just labelled a racist for doing so.

Anyway, arguing about Robinson is pointless but one thing you can’t deny is that while Islam grows so does the number of so called ‘racist’ people! Have you ever wondered why this is? It amazes me how people can be so obtuse.

We agree, it's pointless. :-)

There has certainly been a growth in Islamophobia. There have been a number of terrorist attacks that have clearly influenced this i.e. London and Manchester. You get the backlash to that with people attacking mosques etc.

I guess also the press coverage and general exposure that extreme views receive also helps this. Brexit/Trump have also led some to believe that these views are acceptable to voice. Not sure of the point though, why do you think growth in Islam = more racist people? Is there something I am missing?
 

[aaron1867]

This Tory leadership race is going to be something, for sure. I don’t see Boris as the odds on favourite that he currently is, I see him struggling to get enough support from his MP’s, but if he does somehow get that support & ends up in the last two, he wins by landslide. He’s avoiding the TV debates at present too, I think he knows he’s gaffe prone. Essentially a clever move.

But tighty mentions a process with Boris, but I can see one with Hunt or perhaps Javid. Let’s say you put May’s deal in front of either as these as PM, I think you’re reaching a peak it was once at when May brought it a second time. Then perhaps they go to EU and just ask for a little more and eventually I can see a deal getting over the line, just. Simply because it’s not May.

But I’m reality, for the Tory party, they probably need Boris to be their PM to save the party, he’s probably the only one who could stop Farage’s success.

But on another note, why is it going to take so long for the leadership race to complete? Why not have two weeks of campaigning & then 10 days of voting, a new PM by end of June. Instead it’ll be August when we’re back trying to negotiate Brexit.

[BigAdz]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

Blimey, those neighbours are bad. They managed to take ALL the proceeds from our sale, leaving us just with a cardboard box......nice people.....

[TightEnd]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

Blimey, those neighbours are bad. They managed to take ALL the proceeds from our sale, leaving us just with a cardboard box......nice people.....

It's self inflicted!

We had no strategy when we decided to move, appointed several estate agents in a row then took several half baked strategies to the table none of which could ever be acceptable

By the time we found a compromise of sorts,  the solicitors wouldn't let us complete

Now either need to decide to stay put and build that lean to we were putting off or still move downsizing to something that we don't really like but at least its ours, right?

In the meantime we need to find furniture movers, packers and the like just in case and we've hardly started looking.
 

[Pokerpops]

well even most remainers would want reform, if by some slim chance we stayed in

Maybe that would be part of a "revoke" negotiation with the EU "we'll revoke if you do a, b c" under a future leftish coalition government

so i don't think remain no reform is realistic

and leave no deal is not feasible (big economic damage, we are not ready) no matter what the WTO Brexit idealists at any cost would like.

so we go round in circles again

This seems so blindingly obvious but how would you make it happen? Cameron tried and failed to get change pre-referendum it feels too late to start to do it now.
Tbf even if we could start now with BoJo or whoever at the helm what changes would be acceptable to the ERG and their like.

so back to this point, how do you make it happen?

Boris tries to renegotiate, fails

Pivots to default no deal

Remain parliament votes it down in no confidence vote (One nation tories vote with opposition. none want election but none can countenance no deal)

Voters in a 2019 GE vote on remain leave lines and not traditional party lines

Produces a nasty hung parliament where the only workable solution is a leftish/government of national unity type coalition that has to have a remain bent

Maybe corbyn goes during that process

New government says to EU "We are prepared to make the case for revoke v no deal in a 2nd ref, but to do that you really have to make it sweet, opt us out of x, rebates on y, out of z"

EU has its feet held to the fire for a change, gives some ground

2nd ref. the softer end of leavers prepared to accpet the bribe

the harder end, no deal is what we voted for, leave now and get on with it, are then into the realms of civil disobedience

We revoke.

What if Boris, or whoever, cuts straight to the making a case for revoke if you agree to x, y, z ?
Is that political suicide for him? Or just Tory Politics suicide?

[TightEnd]

well even most remainers would want reform, if by some slim chance we stayed in

Maybe that would be part of a "revoke" negotiation with the EU "we'll revoke if you do a, b c" under a future leftish coalition government

so i don't think remain no reform is realistic

and leave no deal is not feasible (big economic damage, we are not ready) no matter what the WTO Brexit idealists at any cost would like.

so we go round in circles again

This seems so blindingly obvious but how would you make it happen? Cameron tried and failed to get change pre-referendum it feels too late to start to do it now.
Tbf even if we could start now with BoJo or whoever at the helm what changes would be acceptable to the ERG and their like.

so back to this point, how do you make it happen?

Boris tries to renegotiate, fails

Pivots to default no deal

Remain parliament votes it down in no confidence vote (One nation tories vote with opposition. none want election but none can countenance no deal)

Voters in a 2019 GE vote on remain leave lines and not traditional party lines

Produces a nasty hung parliament where the only workable solution is a leftish/government of national unity type coalition that has to have a remain bent

Maybe corbyn goes during that process

New government says to EU "We are prepared to make the case for revoke v no deal in a 2nd ref, but to do that you really have to make it sweet, opt us out of x, rebates on y, out of z"

EU has its feet held to the fire for a change, gives some ground

2nd ref. the softer end of leavers prepared to accpet the bribe

the harder end, no deal is what we voted for, leave now and get on with it, are then into the realms of civil disobedience

We revoke.

What if Boris, or whoever, cuts straight to the making a case for revoke if you agree to x, y, z ?
Is that political suicide for him? Or just Tory Politics suicide?

well he would have been elected PM by members so safe from them unless a fresh leadership challenge emerges, 50 signatories needed. It might do, hard line ERG "No deal at any cost" is 28-30 MPs. Probably would do if (say a remainer like) Jeremy Hunt did it but if a leaver did it?

certainly high risk, not sure its political suicide just yet. Heaven knows what the electorate would do at the next GE. Tories would win a load of remainers back but lose leavers? haven't really got that far!

[RickBFA]

Meanwhile Jezza expels Alastair Campbell from the Labour Party.

Seems to be uproar as it took a couple of days to do it yet members accused of threatening to kill MP’s and anti semitic stuff are at worst suspended for months on end.

God help us if that delusional clown ever gets to be PM.

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile Jezza expels Alastair Campbell from the Labour Party.

Seems to be uproar as it took a couple of days to do it yet members accused of threatening to kill MP’s and anti semitic stuff are at worst suspended for months on end.

God help us if that delusional clown ever gets to be PM.

Amazing

as was the Conservatives suspending Heseltine

what exactly are centrist type remainers meant to do in the face of collective madness in both front benches?

vote Lib Dem seemed sensible enough to me :-)

[Pokerpops]

well even most remainers would want reform, if by some slim chance we stayed in

Maybe that would be part of a "revoke" negotiation with the EU "we'll revoke if you do a, b c" under a future leftish coalition government

so i don't think remain no reform is realistic

and leave no deal is not feasible (big economic damage, we are not ready) no matter what the WTO Brexit idealists at any cost would like.

so we go round in circles again

This seems so blindingly obvious but how would you make it happen? Cameron tried and failed to get change pre-referendum it feels too late to start to do it now.
Tbf even if we could start now with BoJo or whoever at the helm what changes would be acceptable to the ERG and their like.

so back to this point, how do you make it happen?

Boris tries to renegotiate, fails

Pivots to default no deal

Remain parliament votes it down in no confidence vote (One nation tories vote with opposition. none want election but none can countenance no deal)

Voters in a 2019 GE vote on remain leave lines and not traditional party lines

Produces a nasty hung parliament where the only workable solution is a leftish/government of national unity type coalition that has to have a remain bent

Maybe corbyn goes during that process

New government says to EU "We are prepared to make the case for revoke v no deal in a 2nd ref, but to do that you really have to make it sweet, opt us out of x, rebates on y, out of z"

EU has its feet held to the fire for a change, gives some ground

2nd ref. the softer end of leavers prepared to accpet the bribe

the harder end, no deal is what we voted for, leave now and get on with it, are then into the realms of civil disobedience

We revoke.

What if Boris, or whoever, cuts straight to the making a case for revoke if you agree to x, y, z ?
Is that political suicide for him? Or just Tory Politics suicide?

well he would have been elected PM by members so safe from them unless a fresh leadership challenge emerges, 50 signatories needed. It might do, hard line ERG "No deal at any cost" is 28-30 MPs. Probably would do if (say a remainer like) Jeremy Hunt did it but if a leaver did it?

certainly high risk, not sure its political suicide just yet. Heaven knows what the electorate would do at the next GE. Tories would win a load of remainers back but lose leavers? haven't really got that far!

What would be on the shopping list though?
Some measure of control over ‘free movement’ but beyond that, what?
The EU needs substantial reforms and the UK isn’t the only country to see this. So what do we ask for to make membership palatable whilst we attempt to turn the super-tanker round?
If revoke could be sold on the basis of some concessions now and the commitment to using our membership to create change from within would that be enough?

[BigAdz]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

Blimey, those neighbours are bad. They managed to take ALL the proceeds from our sale, leaving us just with a cardboard box......nice people.....

It's self inflicted!

We had no strategy when we decided to move, appointed several estate agents in a row then took several half baked strategies to the table none of which could ever be acceptable

By the time we found a compromise of sorts,  the solicitors wouldn't let us complete

Now either need to decide to stay put and build that lean to we were putting off or still move downsizing to something that we don't really like but at least its ours, right?

In the meantime we need to find furniture movers, packers and the like just in case and we've hardly started looking.
 

Very good.

However, we went through all this doom and gloom soothsaying when we discussed the apocolyptic impact Voting Leave would have on the Economy. I don't recall too many(any) Remainers referring to this when they  make more world ending forecasts.....most just change the subject or take a "left" turn....

[MANTIS01]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

Blimey, those neighbours are bad. They managed to take ALL the proceeds from our sale, leaving us just with a cardboard box......nice people.....

It's self inflicted!

We had no strategy when we decided to move, appointed several estate agents in a row then took several half baked strategies to the table none of which could ever be acceptable

By the time we found a compromise of sorts,  the solicitors wouldn't let us complete

Now either need to decide to stay put and build that lean to we were putting off or still move downsizing to something that we don't really like but at least its ours, right?

In the meantime we need to find furniture movers, packers and the like just in case and we've hardly started looking.
 

That’s definitely true of recent real estate strategy...

But then again your wife and family have been telling you of their growing concern and desire to move for many years. But rather than represent their values you went down the pub every night with your pals Pierre and Fritz having a good laugh about how your wife was a bigot and your son a racist. You kept putting less housekeeping on the table so rented all the spare rooms to Pierre, Fritz and their families even though the house was too small. When you shudda really went to the landlord and negotiated a better rent deal.

In a bid to save the relationship you agreed to move and gave your wife a free choice. You readily agreed to her chosen location. Then you said it was all too expensive and tried to backtrack. You didn’t have any faith that your family could survive after moving and that kinda hurt them.

Now you realise all too late that the relationship has broken down and perhaps you shudda listened earlier and not filled the house with strangers. You can sit there lamenting recent times but the truth is you were fucking up the whole house move thing for a very long time.

[BigAdz]

We have created a fascinating situation where

(a) the country is obsessed with a particular issue;

(b) there is no majority for any proposed way of resolving this issue and

(c) we decided to up the tension by making the status quo(remain) and the default (no deal) radically different things.


Like moving house and setting a date for moving before deciding what sort of house or the location. Meanwhile getting the advisory referendum to act as a catalyst for all of this nationalistic fervour and then realising there is no safe place for it to go.

Sometime you just gotta move house. They neighbours are unbearable, the council tax is too high and things just don't look like changing.

Destination and house type are things you can work with when you get there. However, worse still, now you have announced you are moving, the poor/unaccomodating neighbours have got even worse and are treating you like shit on their shoe.....

currently the alternative is a few cardboard boxes as on 31st Oct we aren't ready. The neighbours are more ready. :-)

Blimey, those neighbours are bad. They managed to take ALL the proceeds from our sale, leaving us just with a cardboard box......nice people.....

It's self inflicted!

We had no strategy when we decided to move, appointed several estate agents in a row then took several half baked strategies to the table none of which could ever be acceptable

By the time we found a compromise of sorts,  the solicitors wouldn't let us complete

Now either need to decide to stay put and build that lean to we were putting off or still move downsizing to something that we don't really like but at least its ours, right?

In the meantime we need to find furniture movers, packers and the like just in case and we've hardly started looking.
 

That’s definitely true of recent real estate strategy...

But then again your wife and family have been telling you of their growing concern and desire to move for many years. But rather than represent their values you went down the pub every night with your pals Pierre and Fritz having a good laugh about how your wife was a bigot and your son a racist. You kept putting less housekeeping on the table so rented all the spare rooms to Pierre, Fritz and their families even though the house was too small. When you shudda really went to the landlord and negotiated a better rent deal.

In a bid to save the relationship you agreed to move and gave your wife a free choice. You readily agreed to her chosen location. Then you said it was all too expensive and tried to backtrack. You didn’t have any faith that your family could survive after moving and that kinda hurt them.

Now you realise all too late that the relationship has broken down and perhaps you shudda listened earlier and not filled the house with strangers. You can sit there lamenting recent times but the truth is you were fucking up the whole house move thing for a very long time.

Always puts it so much better.

[RickBFA]

Meanwhile Jezza expels Alastair Campbell from the Labour Party.

Seems to be uproar as it took a couple of days to do it yet members accused of threatening to kill MP’s and anti semitic stuff are at worst suspended for months on end.

God help us if that delusional clown ever gets to be PM.

Amazing

as was the Conservatives suspending Heseltine

what exactly are centrist type remainers meant to do in the face of collective madness in both front benches?

vote Lib Dem seemed sensible enough to me :-)

Makes you wonder why they did so badly at the last GE when it really matters.

Either their policies don’t really have a mass appeal or their leadership is so piss poor that they can’t communicate the policies to the general public.

Probably a combo of both.

The last 3 years has been the biggest open goal ever and they have really only prospered in these European elections as a protest party for frustrated remainers that have ignored them for years.

They will be back to polling 10-12% public support very soon.