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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180356 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #19560 on: August 08, 2019, 04:18:29 PM »

https://costofbrexit.netlify.com/

It’s a crudely estimated figure. On balance it’s likely to be an underestimate (as no deal likelihood has increased), I can’t testify to its accuracy though.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 04:22:00 PM by kukushkin88 » Logged
MANTIS01
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« Reply #19561 on: August 08, 2019, 04:29:49 PM »

tbf it’s very amazing how project fear started with predicted meltdown of civilised society, no medicine or food, panicked people running into sea...

...and now it’s some dairy farmers in NI might need to cull up to 15% of cows

That’s just bollocks though isn’t. The potential worst case was presented and work has been done to mitigate against it ever since, yet still they say it will be catastrophic. The NI dairy farmer’s having their industry destroyed is a tiny drop in the ocean.

How come the potential worst case was presented? The case that assumed absolutely zero work would be done to mitigate anything?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #19562 on: August 08, 2019, 04:33:37 PM »

tbf it’s very amazing how project fear started with predicted meltdown of civilised society, no medicine or food, panicked people running into sea...

...and now it’s some dairy farmers in NI might need to cull up to 15% of cows

That’s just bollocks though isn’t. The potential worst case was presented and work has been done to mitigate against it ever since, yet still they say it will be catastrophic. The NI dairy farmer’s having their industry destroyed is a tiny drop in the ocean.

How come the potential worse case was presented? The case that assumed absolutely zero work would be done to mitigate anything?


Establishing what the worst case scenario is has to be a part of every risk assessment.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #19563 on: August 08, 2019, 04:45:16 PM »

tbf it’s very amazing how project fear started with predicted meltdown of civilised society, no medicine or food, panicked people running into sea...

...and now it’s some dairy farmers in NI might need to cull up to 15% of cows

That’s just bollocks though isn’t. The potential worst case was presented and work has been done to mitigate against it ever since, yet still they say it will be catastrophic. The NI dairy farmer’s having their industry destroyed is a tiny drop in the ocean.

How come the potential worse case was presented? The case that assumed absolutely zero work would be done to mitigate anything?


Establishing what the worst case scenario is has to be a part of every risk assessment.

In case it’s not clear, you establish the worst case, before you consider the mitigation.
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #19564 on: August 08, 2019, 04:45:35 PM »

Nope, the key factor in risk assessments is Likelihood of Occurrence

How likely was absolutely zero work to mitigate going to be done?

Why present scenarios that have no credibility?

Then protest when future scenarios aren’t taken seriously?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #19565 on: August 08, 2019, 04:59:10 PM »

Nope, the key factor in risk assessments is Likelihood of Occurrence

How likely was absolutely zero work to mitigate going to be done?

Why present scenarios that have no credibility?

Then protest when future scenarios aren’t taken seriously?

You don’t understand. What actually happens is that you map all scenarios, the information you derive is what informs your decision about the mitigation that needs to be implemented.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #19566 on: August 08, 2019, 05:07:26 PM »

What repeatedly gets forgotten is that before the Referendum, project fear was in full swing. Worst case scenarios constantly quoted by Osborne, BofE, remain campaign etc and still the majority voted for leave.

People knew about the potential downsizes because it was constantly ramped down our throats.

The same people are out in force doing the same thing now - guess what - the majority thought the risks of the downside were worth it to get out of the EU.

Economic contraction in the short term was a known reality that was accepted as a price worth paying. 

Repeating and repeating the arguments about the downside are just a waste of time.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #19567 on: August 08, 2019, 05:12:01 PM »

What repeatedly gets forgotten is that before the Referendum, project fear was in full swing. Worst case scenarios constantly quoted by Osborne, BofE, remain campaign etc and still the majority voted for leave.

People knew about the potential downsizes because it was constantly ramped down our throats.

The same people are out in force doing the same thing now - guess what - the majority thought the risks of the downside were worth it to get out of the EU.

Economic contraction in the short term was a known reality that was accepted as a price worth paying. 

Repeating and repeating the arguments about the downside are just a waste of time.

but still no suggestion of any actual upside to Brexit.
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #19568 on: August 08, 2019, 05:40:12 PM »

Nope, the key factor in risk assessments is Likelihood of Occurrence

How likely was absolutely zero work to mitigate going to be done?

Why present scenarios that have no credibility?

Then protest when future scenarios aren’t taken seriously?

You don’t understand. What actually happens is that you map all scenarios, the information you derive is what informs your decision about the mitigation that needs to be implemented.

You don’t understand. Constantly posting worst case scenarios that have no possibility of occurring is a thoroughly irresponsible act. When your country is within a negotiating scenario it’s simple sabotage. Waffle all you want about mapping scenarios but the only scenario remain ever map is the most negative impossible kind. Then you wonder why people giggle. I mean demise of 15% NI moo cows and queen parachuting in rofl...
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« Reply #19569 on: August 08, 2019, 05:57:06 PM »

Nope, the key factor in risk assessments is Likelihood of Occurrence

How likely was absolutely zero work to mitigate going to be done?

Why present scenarios that have no credibility?

Then protest when future scenarios aren’t taken seriously?

You don’t understand. What actually happens is that you map all scenarios, the information you derive is what informs your decision about the mitigation that needs to be implemented.

You don’t understand. Constantly posting worst case scenarios that have no possibility of occurring is a thoroughly irresponsible act. When your country is within a negotiating scenario it’s simple sabotage. Waffle all you want about mapping scenarios but the only scenario remain ever map is the most negative impossible kind. Then you wonder why people giggle. I mean demise of 15% NI moo cows and queen parachuting in rofl...

That’s just more complete nonsense and it’s been explained to why it’s ridiculous dozens of times. I’ll leave you to it.
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« Reply #19570 on: August 08, 2019, 06:43:58 PM »

What repeatedly gets forgotten is that before the Referendum, project fear was in full swing. Worst case scenarios constantly quoted by Osborne, BofE, remain campaign etc and still the majority voted for leave.

People knew about the potential downsizes because it was constantly ramped down our throats.

The same people are out in force doing the same thing now - guess what - the majority thought the risks of the downside were worth it to get out of the EU.

Economic contraction in the short term was a known reality that was accepted as a price worth paying. 

Repeating and repeating the arguments about the downside are just a waste of time.

but still no suggestion of any actual upside to Brexit.

Always has been control of your own destiny for better or worse.

Whilst there will be pain even with a deal we will be outside a club which if history teaches us anything is going to fail in future. Euro currency will go tits up at some point first and the EU project with constant expansion of member countries and power/control will fail apart in time.

The EU are still shitting themselves that UK success away from the EU will be a disaster for their ideological project.
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #19571 on: August 08, 2019, 08:05:47 PM »

What repeatedly gets forgotten is that before the Referendum, project fear was in full swing. Worst case scenarios constantly quoted by Osborne, BofE, remain campaign etc and still the majority voted for leave.

People knew about the potential downsizes because it was constantly ramped down our throats.

The same people are out in force doing the same thing now - guess what - the majority thought the risks of the downside were worth it to get out of the EU.

Economic contraction in the short term was a known reality that was accepted as a price worth paying. 

Repeating and repeating the arguments about the downside are just a waste of time.

but still no suggestion of any actual upside to Brexit.

Always has been control of your own destiny for better or worse.

Whilst there will be pain even with a deal we will be outside a club which if history teaches us anything is going to fail in future. Euro currency will go tits up at some point first and the EU project with constant expansion of member countries and power/control will fail apart in time.

The EU are still shitting themselves that UK success away from the EU will be a disaster for their ideological project.


The upside is being disassociated from a clumsy, overly beauracratic, financially out of control, over-reaching, un-democratic EU.
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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« Reply #19572 on: August 08, 2019, 09:57:34 PM »

upside is extra £350m a week for NHS
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« Reply #19573 on: August 09, 2019, 06:32:30 AM »

Was reading the newly released UN climate report

Gasses produced by dairy cows cited as a major cause of global warming

So upside of Brexit and the sad loss of 15k moo cows is that we’re saving the world
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« Reply #19574 on: August 09, 2019, 06:53:46 AM »

I see that Boris did a Facebook live speech. He’s playing it very smart, getting his messages out there minus the media spin, there have been lots of things popping up on there since he took the top job on, more than I have ever seen by a politician on FB.
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