The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

Good to hear brexit is providing opportunities!  

[Pokerpops]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
...

Isn't there a realist possibility that the narrative could be:

- we crash out of the EU with no deal at the end of October
- we have an early election
- all the Brexit party votes go to the Conservatives because Brexit has been delivered
- that gives the Conservatives a majority(?)

Each bullet point of that could come with a lengthy piece of analysis; but it definitely doesn't seem like something that could be entirely out of the question.

Absolutely that Jon

The only caveat would be if EU blink and Boris presents improved deal which gets voted down. Then Boris gets even bigger majority.

Liked JRM on bbc today, highly composed with thorough knowledge. Nice turn of phrase with ”crying constitutional wolf” and “if we suggested celebrating Christmas Day on December 25th Nicola Sturgeon would be outraged”

Remain sinking fast, increasingly desperate imo

JRM was on absolutely top top form this morning. Thoroughly prepared, and nicely controlled. But it was only Charlie Speight asking the questions. Will be interesting to see him when it’s one of the more intelligent interviewers. ( That list of more intelligent interviewers is very very long, and probably includes the last remaining Chuckle Brother)

[nirvana]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

[kukushkin88]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

Congrats and good to hear!

It’s great news, very pleased for you 😊.

[Marky147]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

Congrats, and good luck, Rich!

[Marky147]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

Good to hear brexit is providing opportunities!  

[Dewi_cool]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

Llongyfarchiadau

[Pokerpops]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

Wherever you are joining is undoubtedly lucky to have you.

[kukushkin88]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

Cheaper food, clothing and flip flops is a massive stretch. If there was anything better, I’d have expected him to mention it by now.

As a general point, we are overrating politicians and underrating ourselves, PM Dipshit doesn’t have some great plan, JRM isn’t keeping the benefits of Brexit a secret for fun. If there was a good way out, we’d be able to see it. All of the information is known to all sides.

[nirvana]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

Cheaper food, clothing and flip flops is a massive stretch. If there was anything better, I’d have expected him to mention it by now.

As a general point, we are overrating politicians and underrating ourselves, PM Dipshit doesn’t have some great plan, JRM isn’t keeping the benefits of Brexit a secret for fun. If there was a good way out, we’d be able to see it. All of the information is known to all sides.

tbf, when I say that I would like to hear something more convincing, I really mean for other people and unlikely to come from someone like Rees Mogg anyway. I think his rationale for Brexit is philosophical rather than immediately economic. I'm in the same strata of society so same goes for me really.

[Woodsey]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

Cheaper food, clothing and flip flops is a massive stretch. If there was anything better, I’d have expected him to mention it by now.

As a general point, we are overrating politicians and underrating ourselves, PM Dipshit doesn’t have some great plan, JRM isn’t keeping the benefits of Brexit a secret for fun. If there was a good way out, we’d be able to see it. All of the information is known to all sides.

Anything better? Wtf are you on about? We’d die without food. Them poor people you keep rattling on about probably wouldn’t mind to be fair....

[kukushkin88]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

Cheaper food, clothing and flip flops is a massive stretch. If there was anything better, I’d have expected him to mention it by now.

As a general point, we are overrating politicians and underrating ourselves, PM Dipshit doesn’t have some great plan, JRM isn’t keeping the benefits of Brexit a secret for fun. If there was a good way out, we’d be able to see it. All of the information is known to all sides.

tbf, when I say that I would like to hear something more convincing, I really mean for other people and unlikely to come from someone like Rees Mogg anyway. I think his rationale for Brexit is philosophical rather than immediately economic. I'm in the same strata of society so same goes for me really.

Isn’t it the most redundant and simple question to ask you to think harder? Nothing complicated here.

Lol, real life took over (in a good way).

[Woodsey]

Always like listening to him and the line about Sturgeons outrage was super fun. Always sounds very very weak when he cites that people aren't focusing on the benefits such as 'cheaper food, clothing and footwear'. Would like to hear something more convincing than that but perhaps it's the nature of several minute interviews and the newsbitey age.

Cheaper food, clothing and flip flops is a massive stretch. If there was anything better, I’d have expected him to mention it by now.

As a general point, we are overrating politicians and underrating ourselves, PM Dipshit doesn’t have some great plan, JRM isn’t keeping the benefits of Brexit a secret for fun. If there was a good way out, we’d be able to see it. All of the information is known to all sides.

tbf, when I say that I would like to hear something more convincing, I really mean for other people and unlikely to come from someone like Rees Mogg anyway. I think his rationale for Brexit is philosophical rather than immediately economic. I'm in the same strata of society so same goes for me really.

Isn’t it the most redundant and simple question to ask you to think harder? Nothing complicated here.

Lol, real life took over (in a good way).

Being able to eat is the simplest thing and most basic thing.......anything better lol you couldn’t make it up 

[MANTIS01]

And tbf I bought a pair of Havaianos recently and they were a relatively steep £29.99 so kinda pleased to hear this news

[Pokerpops]

It’s always encouraging to pop into Blonde and see that the debate is still alive and reaching new heights of logic and reason.