The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[aaron1867]

Reading some of the media reports via I, ITV & , it would seem hate crime, petty crime and poverty had gone up sharply since Brexit. Children are now more reliant on their parents going to the food bank. Leading to hunger and death, mainly because we are focusing on Brexit.

If I was stupid and hateful enough to Brexit, I don’t think I could sleep well at night knowing more children we now in poverty and leading to child’s deaths.

But hey, new laws & £350m for the NHS, let them kids die

Feel free to donate more to the appropriate causes then if you feel so strongly about it.

That’s what I’m doing at the moment. Donating to keep families going.

But hey, new laws

Just like you were at the cricket WC final  Action talks bullshit walks 

It must really hurt you about me getting tix. Fancy keep bringing up in a politics thread. You ok Hun?

[Woodsey]

Reading some of the media reports via I, ITV & , it would seem hate crime, petty crime and poverty had gone up sharply since Brexit. Children are now more reliant on their parents going to the food bank. Leading to hunger and death, mainly because we are focusing on Brexit.

If I was stupid and hateful enough to Brexit, I don’t think I could sleep well at night knowing more children we now in poverty and leading to child’s deaths.

But hey, new laws & £350m for the NHS, let them kids die

Feel free to donate more to the appropriate causes then if you feel so strongly about it.

That’s what I’m doing at the moment. Donating to keep families going.

But hey, new laws

Just like you were at the cricket WC final   Action talks bullshit walks  

It must really hurt you about me getting tix. Fancy keep bringing up in a politics thread. You ok Hun?

Why I would be hurt? I was there and you ignored my offers to meet for a beer or a quick hello, so I put it to you that you are the bullshitter. I can prove I was there and did on the WC thread, can you? If so do please or it is you that is the bullshitter that everyone knows you are...

[aaron1867]

Reading some of the media reports via I, ITV & , it would seem hate crime, petty crime and poverty had gone up sharply since Brexit. Children are now more reliant on their parents going to the food bank. Leading to hunger and death, mainly because we are focusing on Brexit.

If I was stupid and hateful enough to Brexit, I don’t think I could sleep well at night knowing more children we now in poverty and leading to child’s deaths.

But hey, new laws & £350m for the NHS, let them kids die

Feel free to donate more to the appropriate causes then if you feel so strongly about it.

That’s what I’m doing at the moment. Donating to keep families going.

But hey, new laws

Just like you were at the cricket WC final   Action talks bullshit walks  

It must really hurt you about me getting tix. Fancy keep bringing up in a politics thread. You ok Hun?

Why I would be hurt? I was there and you ignored my offers to meet for a beer or a quick hello, so I put it to you that you are the bullshitter. I can prove I was there and did on the WC thread, can you? If so do please or it is you that is the bullshitter that everyone knows you are...

You’re only posting such nonsense because I have a different opinion to you. But here you are, bring up the same cricket nonsense, because you wanted my tickets. People know the business I used to own & I don’t really care for you bringing up something unrelated to the topic.

[Woodsey]

Reading some of the media reports via I, ITV & , it would seem hate crime, petty crime and poverty had gone up sharply since Brexit. Children are now more reliant on their parents going to the food bank. Leading to hunger and death, mainly because we are focusing on Brexit.

If I was stupid and hateful enough to Brexit, I don’t think I could sleep well at night knowing more children we now in poverty and leading to child’s deaths.

But hey, new laws & £350m for the NHS, let them kids die

Feel free to donate more to the appropriate causes then if you feel so strongly about it.

That’s what I’m doing at the moment. Donating to keep families going.

But hey, new laws

Just like you were at the cricket WC final   Action talks bullshit walks  

It must really hurt you about me getting tix. Fancy keep bringing up in a politics thread. You ok Hun?

Why I would be hurt? I was there and you ignored my offers to meet for a beer or a quick hello, so I put it to you that you are the bullshitter. I can prove I was there and did on the WC thread, can you? If so do please or it is you that is the bullshitter that everyone knows you are...

You’re only posting such nonsense because I have a different opinion to you. But here you are, bring up the same cricket nonsense, because you wanted my tickets. People know the business I used to own & I don’t really care for you bringing up something unrelated to the topic.

No I’m bringing it up because I know you are full of shit!

[RickBFA]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

[kukushkin88]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

There is a large consensus outside the right wing bubble/echo chamber that basically goes:

(I’m paraphrasing but it’s not that far away from how the FT has seen/described it)
1: Dipshit becomes PM by the back door (first time a sitting PM has ever been chosen by political party members).
2: Dipshit PM outlines intent to fuck everything up.
3: Markets and currency tank every time dipshit opens his mouth.
4: Dipshit enjoys bounce in the polls.

Also the broadcasting laws around elections really don’t help the Tories.

[Jon MW]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
...

Isn't there a realist possibility that the narrative could be:

- we crash out of the EU with no deal at the end of October
- we have an early election
- all the Brexit party votes go to the Conservatives because Brexit has been delivered
- that gives the Conservatives a majority(?)

Each bullet point of that could come with a lengthy piece of analysis; but it definitely doesn't seem like something that could be entirely out of the question.

[TightEnd]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

[tikay]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

[MANTIS01]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
...

Isn't there a realist possibility that the narrative could be:

- we crash out of the EU with no deal at the end of October
- we have an early election
- all the Brexit party votes go to the Conservatives because Brexit has been delivered
- that gives the Conservatives a majority(?)

Each bullet point of that could come with a lengthy piece of analysis; but it definitely doesn't seem like something that could be entirely out of the question.

Absolutely that Jon

The only caveat would be if EU blink and Boris presents improved deal which gets voted down. Then Boris gets even bigger majority.

Liked JRM on bbc today, highly composed with thorough knowledge. Nice turn of phrase with ”crying constitutional wolf” and “if we suggested celebrating Christmas Day on December 25th Nicola Sturgeon would be outraged”

Remain sinking fast, increasingly desperate imo

[kukushkin88]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
...

Isn't there a realist possibility that the narrative could be:

- we crash out of the EU with no deal at the end of October
- we have an early election
- all the Brexit party votes go to the Conservatives because Brexit has been delivered
- that gives the Conservatives a majority(?)

Each bullet point of that could come with a lengthy piece of analysis; but it definitely doesn't seem like something that could be entirely out of the question.

I think it’s possible, crash out is a much bigger deal than people usually give it credit when suggesting this scenario though. Boris/Gove and the EU know this for sure. I think barely changed deal gets through as Parliament blinks is the current favourite. Election following vote of no confidence, with Brexit delayed is current second favourite imo. So it feels like there must be a bet but I keep getting burnt since post truth became the dominant factor, so I’ll sit back and enjoy the ride    then maybe move to France 😊.

[Tal]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

[TightEnd]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

[BigAdz]

Hello, MIA this week as in the final stages of confirming a new job. Saved you all 36 links on the ins and outs of prorogation and constitutional outrage or not notes though!

On 7/4, the resignation of Davidson is significant. She was the major driver to the Conservatives winning 12 Scottish seats last time. With Scotland being pro-remain, without Davidson and with Brexit either hard or no deal by the time the GE comes 12 this time round feels optimistic, plus there is the remain vote loss to the LDs in the south to contend with.

Set against that i would think he is on the way to taking a large chunk of the brexit party vote especially if we no deal, plus some former labour industrial heartland voted leave seats

Gut feel is largest party but not overall majority but the question is overall majority/no overall majority rather than which party will be the largest.

Of course a Boris working majority solves a lot of the mess, they can then stuff the DUP and sort out the backstop problem by putting the border in the Irish Sea. Might have had no deal before that happens though.

VBOL with getting the new job Rich.

Ruth Davidson resigns and Tighty is about to confirm a new job...?

Good luck, Tighty.

I was sinking fast, and increasingly desperate.

I start on Monday ;-)

Congrats and good to hear!

[RickBFA]

Just backed Tory majority in next election at 7/4. I’d be interested to see what Tighty thinks of that bet given the improving polling with Johnson in charge and his hardline on Brexit.

Good morning,

Interesting angle to want his opinion after placing the bet. General wisdom would suggest it should be the other way around.

I think most seats is highly likely but 7/4 a majority is not a good price imo, they will need close to no BP support and I don’t see how he achieves it.

Try some numbers:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

There is a large consensus outside the right wing bubble/echo chamber that basically goes:

(I’m paraphrasing but it’s not that far away from how the FT has seen/described it)
1: Dipshit becomes PM by the back door (first time a sitting PM has ever been chosen by political party members).
2: Dipshit PM outlines intent to fuck everything up.
3: Markets and currency tank every time dipshit opens his mouth.
4: Dipshit enjoys bounce in the polls.

Also the broadcasting laws around elections really don’t help the Tories.

I was and still am happy to put my money where my mouth is on the 7/4 bet.

I was just interested in Tighty's opinion as some one I respect.

"Dipshit" may well be playing a smarter game than we give him credit for.