The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Jean Claude Juncker just ruled out an extension

No 10 has worked very, very hard to get him to say this

It means PM will be able to present the vote on Saturday as his deal or no deal at all

"The Chief Whip has advised him this is only chance he has to get deal through"

Puts Labour in an impossible spot. Boris has out manoeuvred Jezza/Starmer & Co.

If Labour vote against it and the deal doesn’t get through Parliament then Labour will get blamed and fall even lower in polls.

If they abstain, the deal goes through then Boris should win a majority in GE.

No, you think its an impossible spot

Labour aren't stupid, they know this will have been a request by Boris & know EU will extend

Call

+1 fortunately yes they are. Still having Jezza as leader is clear evidence of this. The fact I want him as leader as long as possible should be enough proof for anyone.

[ripple11]

An interesting read on the new agreement - https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1184908057165418496

Brexiters: We are against a backstop, that may be triggered in certain circumstances

Johnson: Why don't we make it....a frontstop! Which will apply in all circumstances!

Brexiters: Hurrah! Now we can support it!

 

[RickBFA]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/iain-dale-is-forced-to-correct-lib-dem-brexit/

Oh dear. The deputy leader of Lib Dem’s is pretty clueless. Bullshitting her way through an interview and getting pulled to pieces.

[StuartHopkin]

Interesting piece from our FX broker...

We start by asking, and trying to answer,  the question ‘even before the vote is held tomorrow, has Boris already won ?’
We frame this in macro political terms, meaning we consider things like the ‘blame game’ and the way the country feel, rather than numbers in the House. It is our view that the country now wants to get on with Brexit, a feeling backed up by a poll overnight that 65% of those questioned (from a group who were split between leave and remain) now just want this deal supported and the process progressed. This sets up the platform for the PM that, even if he loses the vote on Saturday, he will appear blameless in the process. He has delivered a deal (again, history will probably not focus on whether it was a good or bad one) that has been ratified by the EU, and he has presented that deal to the House for approval. He will be able to blame its failure on anyone who blocks it, which right now means Labour, SNP and the Lib Dems. An extension becomes likely, and a General Election seems almost certain. Either way, Boris Johnson’s chances of winning a good majority at a General Election are now very strong indeed. I have no political affiliations, and I certainly have no trust for either the Prime Minister or his strategic advisor Dominic Cummins. I do, however, have to give credit where credit is due and accept they have ‘gamed’ this situation incredibly well. Labour are now backed into a corner and as we have already said this week we think any political party blocks this deal at their peril.

[tikay]

I get the feeling, from generally perusing the Media, that Boris will get a majority in the House on Saturday.

Most of the Tories who lost the Whip are going to go with the Government, & at least 6 Labour MP's are likely to go with them too.

[RickBFA]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50088993

Meanwhile the SNP are going back to court. More tactics to avoid Brexit.

I heard a news report yesterday saying they wanted to stop the Saturday sitting of Parliament. Bit rich when they spearheaded the case to get MP's back to Parliament to debate the issues.

 

[ripple11]

I get the feeling, from generally perusing the Media, that Boris will get a majority in the House on Saturday.

Most of the Tories who lost the Whip are going to go with the Government, & at least 6 Labour MP's are likely to go with them too.

Saw odds of 5/6 of each last night ...now 8/11 deal passed and evens not passed.

26 Labour MPs wrote the other week to Junker and said they wanted a deal to be done and they would back it.  Well here it is.

[TightEnd]

Numbers from some back of the envelope stuff

- 287 Conservatives currently voting as a block
- Roughly 4 of the 21 ex Tory no deal rebels voting against, 17 in favour
- Plus 2 ex Tory independents and 4 ex Labour independents
- 3 Lab confirmed for it, plus 3 more voted for May's deal
- That's 316.....

======

Financial Times analysis of the Commons numbers ahead of Saturday's big vote.

With caveats and a lots of undecideds, they reckon 318 MPs could vote for the deal, 321 against. Without the DUP, Boris needs to win over at least 2 MPs to pass his new deal.

https://ft.com/content/c0c6298c-f0e6-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901

[tikay]

On Saturday's I normally gorge myself on Football & Horse Racing & there's the added attraction tomorrow of England in the Rugby World Cup.

Instead, I'll be glued to "Parliament Live".

Weird times these. 

[ripple11]

On Saturday's I normally gorge myself on Football & Horse Racing & there's the added attraction tomorrow of England in the Rugby World Cup.

Instead, I'll be glued to "Parliament Live".

Weird times these. 

It's all right for some....I've got to take the boys to a "drive a mini tank" birthday party   

[Doobs]

On Saturday's I normally gorge myself on Football & Horse Racing & there's the added attraction tomorrow of England in the Rugby World Cup.

Instead, I'll be glued to "Parliament Live".

Weird times these. 

It's all right for some....I've got to take the boys to a "drive a mini tank" birthday party   

I was thinking much the same; on Saturday I normally gorge myself on music lessons, singing and jazz dancing.  Thankfully there is a break in the grind due in a week's time.   I am sure my phone is more likely to be tuned into Ascot though. 

[TightEnd]

downbeat Labour MP:

"We've convinced Leavers that we're Remain and Remainers that we're Leave."

[TightEnd]

really good

latest Brexit Blog on the developing situation, including how we got here and especially the roots of this week's events in the 2017 row of the summer over sequencing, some analysis of the new agreement etc.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/time-and-motion.html

[TightEnd]

Dominic Raab has just said that Northern Ireland has a great deal because it stays close to the EU and has frictionless access to the single market.

Ergo the rest of us don’t ...

reading more of the agreement now i have a chance, the transition period is short. If at the end of it there is not a comprehensive trade deal,its very no deally for UK ex NI

I'd still hope it gets voted through, but its going to be a rough ride.

[Longines]

reading more of the agreement now i have a chance, the transition period is short. If at the end of it there is not a comprehensive trade deal,its very no deally for UK ex NI

This. Another 12 months of doing nothing and then 3 months/weeks/days of grandstanding and tiresome bollocks before the transition period runs out. In an effort to reset the global irony record it will probably end up with Boris blaming it all on the EU for not granting an extension.