The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[aaron1867]

This debate is the worst debate I’ve ever seen

[StuartHopkin]

This debate is the worst debate I’ve ever seen

Looks like deals done Aaron

Probs slips through on Saturday

No winners really

Just a big mess

How do you feel Aaron from your hypocritical racist point of view?

[StuartHopkin]

Deal agreed

Up past 1.29

Should be interesting on Saturday

[Sheriff Fatman]

So BoJo announces a deal is agreed, which is essentially the first one offered by the EU, which Theresa May rejected.

The DUP have announced they can't support it, which is where many of the ERG 'spartans' will presumably take their lead.

No doubt BoJo will spin this as some sort of huge achievement, when it's quite the opposite, and represents a massive climbdown for him.

If there's to be any hope of moving the whole thing forward, surely the logical thing for MPs to now do is make it subject to a confirmatory referendum with Remain as the other option and ratify it on that basis.  Given that a GE appears imminent, then they could time it to hold both the GE and the referendum at the same time.

[aaron1867]

So BoJo announces a deal is agreed, which is essentially the first one offered by the EU, which Theresa May rejected.

The DUP have announced they can't support it, which is where many of the ERG 'spartans' will presumably take their lead.

No doubt BoJo will spin this as some sort of huge achievement, when it's quite the opposite, and represents a massive climbdown for him.

If there's to be any hope of moving the whole thing forward, surely the logical thing for MPs to now do is make it subject to a confirmatory referendum with Remain as the other option and ratify it on that basis.  Given that a GE appears imminent, then they could time it to hold both the GE and the referendum at the same time.

The referendum can’t happen until March at the earliest & this government needs a GE sharpish.

[Sheriff Fatman]

So BoJo announces a deal is agreed, which is essentially the first one offered by the EU, which Theresa May rejected.

The DUP have announced they can't support it, which is where many of the ERG 'spartans' will presumably take their lead.

No doubt BoJo will spin this as some sort of huge achievement, when it's quite the opposite, and represents a massive climbdown for him.

If there's to be any hope of moving the whole thing forward, surely the logical thing for MPs to now do is make it subject to a confirmatory referendum with Remain as the other option and ratify it on that basis.  Given that a GE appears imminent, then they could time it to hold both the GE and the referendum at the same time.

The referendum can’t happen until March at the earliest & this government needs a GE sharpish.

It needs one for it's own selfish purposes, not in the national interest as to what's best for the UK.

Provided that the confirmatory referendum is locked in statute I don't really care if a GE takes place beforehand, but the most logical solution is to have them at the same time.

Out of intrigue, have you resigned your Tory party membership yet?

[BigAdz]

So BoJo announces a deal is agreed, which is essentially the first one offered by the EU, which Theresa May rejected.

The DUP have announced they can't support it, which is where many of the ERG 'spartans' will presumably take their lead.

No doubt BoJo will spin this as some sort of huge achievement, when it's quite the opposite, and represents a massive climbdown for him.

If there's to be any hope of moving the whole thing forward, surely the logical thing for MPs to now do is make it subject to a confirmatory referendum with Remain as the other option and ratify it on that basis.  Given that a GE appears imminent, then they could time it to hold both the GE and the referendum at the same time.

The referendum can’t happen until March at the earliest & this government needs a GE sharpish.

It needs one for it's own selfish purposes, not in the national interest as to what's best for the UK.

Provided that the confirmatory referendum is locked in statute I don't really care if a GE takes place beforehand, but the most logical solution is to have them at the same time.

Out of intrigue, have you resigned your Tory party membership yet?

Why is another Referendum "best for the UK"?

Surely you are inviting so many people with zero knowledge or real interest to be involved in the process which makes no sense?

[Jon MW]

...

Surely you are inviting so many people with zero knowledge or real interest to be involved in the process which makes no sense?

If the government were going to care about that we wouldn't have had the first referendum

[Sheriff Fatman]

Surely you are inviting so many people with zero knowledge or real interest to be involved in the process which makes no sense?

Well that's pretty much how we got here in the first place.

But what else moves this forward from here?  Parliament won't vote for this deal, the fact that we have a deal at all is BoJo's admission that any deal is better than No Deal, so that would be a disaster if it were to happen, although I think there'd be an extension ahead of it actually being allowed to happen.

Whether you choose this deals, Theresa May's deal or (unicorns) a Labour-negotiated deal, nothing is likely to get through Parliament without a confirmatory referendum on existing numbers.

The alternative would be to throw it open to the electorate in the form of a GE, but no-one really knows the outcome from that, as it's mixed in with all sorts of other factors.  Someone might win a majority, but you could equally end up with another hung Parliament and the same sort of issues, probably with a few more Lib Dem, SNP, Brexit Party MPs and a lower number of Tory/Labour ones.

[TightEnd]

The $69bn question now: has Johnson got enough ERG and Labour Brexiteer votes to get the deal through the Commons without the DUP? Lets hope so

Both sides have compromised (Customs, VAT, border in Irish sea), its harder than May's deal but better than no deal.   

Almost as important: what do the EU27 decide to say about an extension tonight?

Will they agree to Boris’s plea to categorically rule another out so its a binary Commons wedge of deal or no deal?

That could force Labour to abstain, if an extension is still on the agenda then they can vote against far more readily.

[BigAdz]

I refuse to believe that even someone as egotistical as Boris is that stupid he thinks any old deal ticks the box.

He will be a hero for the ten minutes until everyone realises he has sold everyone down the river to then become a national figure of hate for the rest of his years.

Surely not?!

[TightEnd]

It's not a great deal,but its better than no deal. Not a fan but he's compromised heavily, and got the EU to do so in other areas so fair enough

There are years of EU negotiations ahead on trade deals, shape of relationship etc, and years with all other trading partners too

but it fulfils the democratic mandate, and that is important as many on here have argued

[TightEnd]

So where is your money?

3 different General Elections.

1) Johnson puts deal: it falls short by 10 votes.
= Pre-Brexit election.

Cons: get Brexit done (this now means *pass this deal*)

Others as now
Brexit: clean Break
Labour: referendum on Soft Brexit vs Remain
LibDems: Remain by revoke/referendum

Another hung parliament? Con majority?

2) Brexit deal in Oct passes in Parliament, ratified in November

Post-Brexit GE (Spring 2020?)

Johnson: Brexit = FTA + global trade. ££££ up on police, NHS, infrastructure. end to austerity

LD: 2020 referendum to Return

Labour: Tories out. Jobs = single market Brexit. Don't let Boris sell NHS to Trump.

Bxp: anti-deal, WTO?

Con thumping majority

3 (obviously more unlikely as of today)

deal falls apart via DUP, ERG

Pre-Brexit election soon. This seems hardest scenario for gvt now.

Cons: ??
Deal or No Deal? (What deal?)
No Deal? (Split)

Brexit: clean break

Labour: referendum, soft Brexit v Remain

LibDems: remain (revoke/ref)

Hung?

[BigAdz]

It's not a great deal,but its better than no deal. Not a fan but he's compromised heavily, and got the EU to do so in other areas so fair enough

There are years of EU negotiations ahead on trade deals, shape of relationship etc, and years with all other trading partners too

but it fulfils the democratic mandate, and that is important as many on here have argued

I would rather we have a blank piece of paper to negotiate than a bit of paper with a load of rules already written and our hands tied behind our back.

[TightEnd]

One known unknown is the life expectancy of a politicised Remain identity. If Brexit deal passes will Remain ID fizzle & with it Lib Dems (and Labour under a post Corbyn leader recovers?) Or will it stay politicised a-la independence in Scotland?