The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Also they are on the verge, if Stormont isn't recalled for next week, of legalising abortion AND gay marriage in Northern Ireland. So pretty much everything the DUP stands against. Would be a spectacular double.

[tikay]

"It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. A similar arrangement was rejected by Theresa May after the DUP blocked it." 

If this is correct the DUP have now managed to turn a spell of rare influence in government into a hard border between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland 😁caving or being discarded by the government to break the famous Brexit trilemna Venn diagram

Can Mr Johnson get this through Parliament?

[TightEnd]

No idea. I think it will get the ERG. It needs enough ex tories and Labour MPs to vote for it too. As logically no deal is a no no for HOC then I think the most likely answer is yes?

Playing that through If there's a Deal which passes I'd expect a trampoline-like bounce for the Tories + the worst environment for the Left to have an Election. Clear cut through of doing Brexit, and a pivot to the left on economics with expansionary policies proclaiming no more austerity will be an Exocet missile at Labour's Midlands and Northern voters.

[StuartHopkin]

Broken through the 1.275 barrier....

[StuartHopkin]

a million?
Selling off much of the council housing stock has pretty disastrous consequences?
Thatcher's first few years were pretty bad for many. 
Austerity has had some bad outcomes and lead to the narrow win in the Brexit vote?  You can start your timeline whever your political persuasion decides it should go?
The troubles could have been resolved sooner?
Devolution and the possibility of Scottish independence?
Selling off so many public services cheaply?
HS2 is an ongoing shambles?

I just hate him so much Doobs. So yeah, all those things you have listed combined times a million still arent as bad as Tony Blair. (Imo)

[Karabiner]

If Mark Francois is a close confidant of any deal I wouldn't want any part of it.

[Archer]

If Mark Francois is a close confidant of any deal I wouldn't want any part of it.

Mark Francois looking rattled. You can bet if it had gone the way he wanted he would have not stopped talking about it

https://twitter.com/Johnmfitzp/status/1184181315299622914

[aaron1867]

Does anyone remember voting for Brexit three and a half years ago? You ticked the box to leave the European Union.

This deal is absolutely hilarious. It's looking at your ballot paper and basically tearing it up. Your vote to leave the European Union isn't a real one. e are never going to really leave the European Union. It's a bit like leaving your house but leaving all your belongings there.

17.4m voted for what they thought was the best sandwich in town, but instead got the same old sandwich.

We've now got a deal that just might get through. But it's not really us leaving. I love it.

Three and a half years of Brexit voters telling remainers how we lost, but here we are. We haven't lost. We actually won the game in extra time.

[TightEnd]

So the night passed without a deal and the news full of a succession of glum ERG's and DUP's trotting out of Downing street

TND reported as follows

"Excl: Big split opens up among Tory Eurosceptics over whether to back Boris’s Brexit deal, as Owen Paterson brands it “absurd” and “unacceptable”. Iain Duncan-Smith also said to have “exploded” at No10 officials."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10143970/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-causes-major-split/

[TightEnd]

He further wrote


Tom Newton Dunn

Having spoken to Cabinet ministers and No10 figures, it's clear now that the intense fear of a Benn Act extension is what is driving Johnson to get a Brexit deal in place this week. So will the Rebel 21 have been the key to an Oct 31 deal or just a worse one? We will see soon.

[TightEnd]

an irony, amongst several ironies is if we end up with an NI-only backstop in all but name, we have essentially managed a triumphant last minute negotiation that’s secured……the EU’s opening offer

[TightEnd]

i thought this was cogent, and sums up the DUP's headache

"Ability to negotiate our own trade deals requires UK to leave Customs Union. Therefore a hard border is required In Ireland. This violates the Good Friday agreement. Therefore Brexit is impossible without breaking up the UK."

[TightEnd]

of course it is probably worth revisiting what Boris Johnson said about precisely the deal (border in the irish sea) he seems to be edging towards now, only one year ago:

He described it as "the greatest national humiliation since Suez."

but electorally its far tougher if he has to delay again, i think, so its the powerful driver to compromise heavily now

[TightEnd]

an irony, amongst several ironies is if we end up with an NI-only backstop in all but name, we have essentially managed a triumphant last minute negotiation that’s secured……the EU’s opening offer

or put another way by Eaton

"If Boris Johnson has accepted a Northern Ireland-only backstop, the UK will have wasted almost two years opposing the solution offered by the EU in February 2018."

[tikay]

So the night passed without a deal and the news full of a succession of glum ERG's and DUP's trotting out of Downing street

TND reported as follows

"Excl: Big split opens up among Tory Eurosceptics over whether to back Boris’s Brexit deal, as Owen Paterson brands it “absurd” and “unacceptable”. Iain Duncan-Smith also said to have “exploded” at No10 officials."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10143970/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-causes-major-split/

IDS has since denied this, according to the BBC.


He denied reports in the Sun newspaper that he "exploded" at Downing Street officials during Tuesday's meeting, saying he was in fact rushing to get on the London Underground to get back to his constituency.