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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180607 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #22485 on: December 10, 2019, 09:39:09 PM »

The remain parties and tactical voting seems not to be great. So many different opinions on who to vote for, but yet 1 in 5 say they will vote tactical. I just hope that tactical voting is being marketed on the doorstep, as it seems online there are so many alternatives

Another YouGov MRP poll out at 10pm I think, suggesting it’s BXP are squeezing the Tory vote
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TightEnd
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« Reply #22486 on: December 10, 2019, 10:07:52 PM »

NEW:

Final YouGov MRP

Projects a Conservative majority of 28 BUT a hung Parliament is now within the margin of error

Seats:

Con 339
Lab 231
SNP 41
Lib Dem 15
BXP 0

65 constituencies are 5% or less lead Con over Lab

Nov 27th MRP was con majority 68

YouGov spoke to 105,612 voters Dec 4-10
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« Reply #22487 on: December 10, 2019, 10:14:08 PM »

All seats analysed https://t.co/ONKnA8bxsO?amp=1

Going to be some weird ones, with red wall and tactical voting raising the prospect of Sedgefield etc going tory and Surrey seats going lib dem
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« Reply #22488 on: December 10, 2019, 10:17:39 PM »

The latest figures indicate Dominic Raab has just a 2 point lead in Esher

Theresa Villers poised to lose her seat

Eurosceptics Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Philip Davies all at risk

Portillo moments may be incoming
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« Reply #22489 on: December 10, 2019, 10:21:04 PM »

Graphically
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« Reply #22490 on: December 11, 2019, 01:10:31 AM »

You can see the predicted results here if you aren't registered with the Telegraph

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
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« Reply #22491 on: December 11, 2019, 02:01:24 AM »

Interested in people’s thoughts

What will make or break this election?

Will it be a hung parliament?

Can Tories still govern with 320-325?

Who’ll be the biggest name MP to lose seat?

Will there be a second referendum?
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aaron1867
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« Reply #22492 on: December 11, 2019, 02:39:03 AM »

This new MRP poll could mean it's all over the Tories, it highlights the fight for seats in so many areas, with a bigger sample

Look at Kensington for example

Before the MRP poll:

CON: 39%
LAB: 29%
LDEM: 27%

MRP Poll:

LAB: 38%
CON: 36%
LDEM: 21%

It's a game changer in that seat, because you'd still struggle to know which party to vote for, now you do

If the LD's support Labour in Chingford (IDS seat), then they gain

In Raab's seat it's the same

And of course there is plenty more

If folk are switched on enough in where to put their vote, they'll stop Boris. If it goes even better you can see where Boris is well under 326.
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« Reply #22493 on: December 11, 2019, 10:19:18 AM »

I don't think its a game changer

lots of tactical voting in the south (possibly, though probably overstated on social where people are switched on to it) could get wiped out by losses in current Labour leave-voting heartland seats

Anything from Tory landslide to hung parliament is in the realm of possibility

Getting out the vote key, weather tomorrow could be a swing factor etc etc
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« Reply #22494 on: December 11, 2019, 10:20:29 AM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins



Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....
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« Reply #22495 on: December 11, 2019, 10:34:26 AM »

some of his videos and posts have been genuinely funny/good this campaign

doesn't look like he will win but this stuff is good

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1203724772632408074?s=20

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« Reply #22496 on: December 11, 2019, 10:36:04 AM »

If the State owns all the rental property.

What do you do if someone doesn't pay their rent?

I had been thinking that you reclaim the money in a a similar way to how it is reclaimed now. There must be ways to compel people to meet their rent/debt obligations?

Before she retired my mum was a Revenue Protection Officer for a housing association, most of her job was making sure that everyone claimed all the benefits they were entitled to but she also had to deal with the people who just didn't bother paying rent.

It was very difficult to evict people and took multiple court visits and multiple broken agreements from them but eventually a judge would agree when people could get kicked out.

The cost of all of these events is going to eat up a lot of the affordable rent profit from the 'good' tenants; but without the ultimate sanction of eviction then I would suspect the problem would be a growing one under a single monolithic government rental giant scheme.

i.e. even if it starts out making a profit; it's going to get less and less over time and eventually will definitely be loss making.

It’s certainly a good point that having nowhere else to go would be a complicating factor. Rent that never gets paid must be an incredible inefficiency in the current system.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #22497 on: December 11, 2019, 10:39:12 AM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins



Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

Has Tory majority of 9 been guessed yet? I'll go for 9.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #22498 on: December 11, 2019, 10:56:50 AM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins



Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

7 short, I’ll match the donation. Thanks for doing this Rich.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #22499 on: December 11, 2019, 11:37:54 AM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins



Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

I said at start of campaign 25-35 majority.

I'll go for 26 majority.
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