The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Just watched the BBC Obama interview.

Good old BBC send Huw Edwards, that hard hitting, well known political interviewer to conduct it.

Huw was clearly happy to be there, laughing, smiling and nodding. What a joke.

They could have sent someone to press him on the issues, but he got a nice, gentle interview. No need to upset our friends eh?

Haha, he was a little too deferential I thought.

Pretty sure he (or his team) would get to select interviewers as part of the deal for the scoop of getting an interview with him. US presidents aren't in the habit of being put in the position of being ruffed up by interviewers....

[TightEnd]

REMAIN now a 75% chance on Betfair's £7.23m #EURef market. Before Obama's visit it was a 63% one

[TightEnd]

"I'm no fan of Obama. But on Brexit, he does speak for America" http://specc.ie/1SxS6vQ

[neeko]

I think the BHS administration is going to force politicians to be more careful about their words when talking about Tata steel.

It will be interesting to see how they can call for the nationalisation of one but not the other. Both sets of owners have taken huge dividends of of the companies.

Is it wrong for Nissan to buy cheaper steel from France/ Germany/ China but not for consumers to buy cheaper clothes from Primark / TKMax / Asda.

[PokerBroker]

Seen Obama on the news again today giving it big about Europe going backwards with Brexit and now just seen this http://bit.ly/1ruzPE2

I take it this will be used to win over some of the lower classes who may be swayed with the likes of UKIP. 

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[neeko]

Click to see full-size image.

What this does not show is the reason, presumably it is a combination of:

Lower interest rates, meaning much more expensive annuities
Retirees living longer than expected

Neither of which BHS has any power over.

[TightEnd]

The Leave campaign will struggle to win by playing the immigration card, writes george eaton http://bit.ly/1SF7Tpu

[Doobs]

Click to see full-size image.

What this does not show is the reason, presumably it is a combination of:

Lower interest rates, meaning much more expensive annuities
Retirees living longer than expected

Neither of which BHS has any power over.

Pretty much this, low long term interest rates have been the death knell of many a final salary scheme.  If you want guanteed long term investments you are looking at feeble investment returns.  This graphic doesn't capture any of this or show what it thinks it shows.  I stongly suspect the earlier figures are on a funding basis and not a buy out basis.  That would likely swing it by a few hundred million.

23 yeard for a recovery plan is very much at the high end.  That decision has made the deficit bigger than it should have been, and with hindsight, less dividends should have been paid to the capitalist scumbag.  But no matter, even if BHS had paid bigger sums in, BHS would still be facing a pretty huge scheme deficit right now.

[Doobs]

Click to see full-size image.

What this does not show is the reason, presumably it is a combination of:

Lower interest rates, meaning much more expensive annuities
Retirees living longer than expected

Neither of which BHS has any power over.

Pretty much this, low long term interest rates have been the death knell of many a final salary scheme.  If you want guanteed long term investments you are looking at feeble investment returns.  This graphic doesn't capture any of this or show what it thinks it shows.  I stongly suspect the earlier figures are on a funding basis and not a buy out basis.  That would likely swing it by a few hundred million.

23 yeard for a recovery plan is very much at the high end.  That decision has made the deficit bigger than it should have been, and with hindsight, less dividends should have been paid to the capitalist scumbag.  But no matter, even if BHS had paid bigger sums in, BHS would still be facing a pretty huge scheme deficit right now.

Philip Green

"If I give you my plane, right, and you tell me you’re a great driver and you crash it into the first fucking mountain, is that my fault?”

Given he removed the engines before he sold the plane, then maybe he is at least partly to blame.

[OverTheBorder]

2001 and 2015 have completely separate actuarial requirements and therefore a surplus in 2001 has little relevance. Seems odd they were so exposed to interest rate and inflation risks plus 2015-2016 was not that bad a period, bad but not that bad. My guess is that the 2015 quote is the technical provisions basis, the 2016 is buyout I.e. How much it would cost to secure with an insurer. Pensions reporting in mainstream press is usually farcical sensationalism. Although clearly an awful situation

[redsimon]

Re: BHS , did financial reporting requirements change in 2008/09 or was the scheme just very badly managed?

[OverTheBorder]

Re: BHS , did financial reporting requirements change in 2008/09 or was the scheme just very badly managed?

Scheme Specific funding replaced MFR on 31 December 2015. Far more stringent.

The number also needs to be relevant to the Scheme size. I mean a £10 million scheme with £5 million deficit doesn't really make headlines but is proportionality funded to the same degree as a billion Scheme with a £500 million deficit.

[Doobs]

Re: BHS , did financial reporting requirements change in 2008/09 or was the scheme just very badly managed?

Scheme Specific funding replaced MFR on 31 December 2015. Far more stringent.

The number also needs to be relevant to the Scheme size. I mean a £10 million scheme with £5 million deficit doesn't really make headlines but is proportionality funded to the same degree as a billion Scheme with a £500 million deficit.

This isn't relevant I don't think.

I think the difference is between a funding basis earlier and a buy out basis now.

Long term  interest rates have collapsed since the earlier numbers, so liabilities now have a much higher value now.  To that you can add in 5 years of flat equity returns, so asset values won't have gone up to compensate.

All in all it is mainly external events, but a 23 year recovery plan was ambitiously long and the company could have tackled that earlier if it was able to pay out all those dividends.

But as I said earlier, the end result would still have been a big deficit on scheme wind up, just a bit smaller big deficit.

[MintTrav]

Albania’s Prime Minister is incredulous that Britain would want to leave the EU when all the East European countries have been scrambling to get in.

“it is odder still that he (Gove) wants voluntarily to leave a union that seems to have given Britain so much.”

“Most countries on the edges of Europe want in, because we know the remarkable benefits there have been to EU countries.”

“While we work hard in taking the many further steps towards EU membership, we enjoy none of the benefits that Britain has, benefits Britain would lose if it came out.”

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3559400/Albania-mention-Brexit-supporters-surprises-PM-Rama.html



He has also been interviewed by the BBC, and said that Gove is talking "nonsense".

"I don't see how the hell British people and the United Kingdom would get out of the EU and would accept to lose so many benefits of being in".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03s97qk