The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

this is a really good read

its remain but from a man who was undecided

sure not too many will read it but its a good one

"I was on the fence, now I'm for Remain. Brexit: a long, expensive, unhappy divorce & the children will suffer most"

http://barristerblogger.com/2016/06/13/must-remain-eu-peace-prosperity/

[TightEnd]

this is good too

again, would be amazed if anyone listened to this podcast but here it is

what would the first 100 days after a vote to brexit look like....

(would be a dramatic time)

https://soundcloud.com/the-spectator-podcast/brexit-strategy-what-would-the?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=twitter

[david3103]

this is a really good read

its remain but from a man who was undecided

sure not too many will read it but its a good one

"I was on the fence, now I'm for Remain. Brexit: a long, expensive, unhappy divorce & the children will suffer most"

http://barristerblogger.com/2016/06/13/must-remain-eu-peace-prosperity/

Interesting. Not sure I buy all his arguments but will give it a second, more considered go later.

The thing about a divorce is specious though. We're not married to 27 other countries, nor to the EU.
It's more akin to being in a boat being driven by 27 other countries and it's sinking. The question is, can we keep it afloat, or should we take to the lifeboat while there's one available.

[MANTIS01]

This is a bit of a shocker isn't it?

(they deleted the poster off social media after the outcry)

Click to see full-size image.

Don't get it. USA isn't in the EU!

[david3103]

this is a really good read

its remain but from a man who was undecided

sure not too many will read it but its a good one

"I was on the fence, now I'm for Remain. Brexit: a long, expensive, unhappy divorce & the children will suffer most"

http://barristerblogger.com/2016/06/13/must-remain-eu-peace-prosperity/

There are a number of spots where his argument fails to convince.

Since the enactment of European Communities Act 1972 and the decisions of the European Court3 and the House of Lords4 in the well-known case (or strictly cases) of Factortame, it has indeed been established that in normal circumstances, if Parliament enacts a law that is incompatible with EU law, it is EU law that will prevail. Does this mean that Parliament has lost the capacity to make any such law, and thus its sovereignty?

On the contrary, it means no such thing. Rather, the effect of the European Communities Act was for Parliament to delegate some of its power to the EU. Just as any number of Acts of Parliament delegate the power to make regulations to ministers or local authorities, so the 1972 Act has delegated powers to make law to EU institutions.

Delegating power to minsters or to local authorities is so far removed from delegating power to the EU that it brings into question his other points.
Citing the Factortame case, where the UK Government was prevented from protecting our fishing fleet by the supremacy of the EU is no way to win this argument.

Telling us that the UK is also undemocratic because some Mnisters are appointed via The House of Lords, and because, well, The House of Lords doesn't make the EU any more democratic. It just points out that the EU has the weaker bits of our own democracy, but on a significantly larger scale.

The figures for GNI that he suggests show the UK having done 'significantly better' than the US over the past three decades reveals that the French, an enthusiastic member of the EU have done significantly worse. By the way, a 5% difference over that timescale doesn't seem that significant to me.

Overall, not convinced.

[DMorgan]

Telling us that the UK is also undemocratic because some Mnisters are appointed via The House of Lords, and because, well, The House of Lords doesn't make the EU any more democratic. It just points out that the EU has the weaker bits of our own democracy, but on a significantly larger scale.

The figures for GNI that he suggests show the UK having done 'significantly better' than the US over the past three decades reveals that the French, an enthusiastic member of the EU have done significantly worse. By the way, a 5% difference over that timescale doesn't seem that significant to me.

Overall, not convinced.

The main thing that I took from the article was that the EU really isn't this huge behemoth of an organisation that it has been made out to be. As far as the UK is concerned, the scope of EU power and decision making is actually fairly narrow since we already had opt outs on 'freedom, security, justice' which seems very broad and sounds about right to me. Cameron also secured opt-outs on 'ever closer political union' which is again nice and broad, hard to sneak anything past that. Outers say that the more recently negotiated stuff isn't set in stone yet and the EU could turn around and say no thanks if we vote to remain, but why would they take such an action that will hugely fan the flames of nationalism and anti-EU sentiment? I haven't seen any suggestions that if the UK votes to remain its off to the races in Brussels.

Even if it was, we're not locked in if we vote to remain. We're not signing up for x years whatever happens.

On the 5% difference in growth since 1973 while I'd be inclined to agree that this isn't of huge significance in most cases, but when you're talking about the #1 and #5 economies in the world, it just can't be dismissed out of hand imo.

[david3103]

Telling us that the UK is also undemocratic because some Mnisters are appointed via The House of Lords, and because, well, The House of Lords doesn't make the EU any more democratic. It just points out that the EU has the weaker bits of our own democracy, but on a significantly larger scale.

The figures for GNI that he suggests show the UK having done 'significantly better' than the US over the past three decades reveals that the French, an enthusiastic member of the EU have done significantly worse. By the way, a 5% difference over that timescale doesn't seem that significant to me.

Overall, not convinced.

The main thing that I took from the article was that the EU really isn't this huge behemoth of an organisation that it has been made out to be. As far as the UK is concerned, the scope of EU power and decision making is actually fairly narrow since we already had opt outs on 'freedom, security, justice' which seems very broad and sounds about right to me. Cameron also secured opt-outs on 'ever closer political union' which is again nice and broad, hard to sneak anything past that. Outers say that the more recently negotiated stuff isn't set in stone yet and the EU could turn around and say no thanks if we vote to remain, but why would they take such an action that will hugely fan the flames of nationalism and anti-EU sentiment? I haven't seen any suggestions that if the UK votes to remain its off to the races in Brussels.

Even if it was, we're not locked in if we vote to remain. We're not signing up for x years whatever happens.

On the 5% difference in growth since 1973 while I'd be inclined to agree that this isn't of huge significance in most cases, but when you're talking about the #1 and #5 economies in the world, it just can't be dismissed out of hand imo.

We're locked in for a generation or more.

Just had another look at that graph. It records the growth in GDP per capita. It is, therefore, a typical politician's graph, one that reveals the inference you want to show without revealing the bits that you want to hide.

[DMorgan]

We're locked in for a generation or more.

Source?

Just had another look at that graph. It records the growth in GDP per capita. It is, therefore, a typical politician's graph, one that reveals the inference you want to show without revealing the bits that you want to hide.

What is he trying to hide? Without the per capita the US' line would be streaking ahead of ours but on the list of reasons why the US economy is bigger than ours, the US not being a member of the EU is gunna be tough to find

[david3103]

We're locked in for a generation or more.

Source?

Just had another look at that graph. It records the growth in GDP per capita. It is, therefore, a typical politician's graph, one that reveals the inference you want to show without revealing the bits that you want to hide.

What is he trying to hide? Without the per capita the US' line would be streaking ahead of ours but on the list of reasons why the US economy is bigger than ours, the US not being a member of the EU is gunna be tough to find

What, you think we can have a referendum every 10yrs or so? Every five? The last one was in 1975,

Did I suggest that the US economy was bigger than ours because they aren't in the EU? I suggested that the 5% 'outperformance' wasn't such a big deal, I am naturally suspicious of all graphs, they are all too frequently engineered to show only what the proponent wishes. This one fails in part because it reveals how badly the French have done in the same period on the same criteria.

[PokerBroker]

Betfair now have leave at 37% bit of a move on. 

Gordon Brown intervention can't be a positive can it?

[redsimon]

Betfair now have leave at 37% bit of a move on. 

Gordon Brown intervention can't be a positive can it?

It was in the Scottish referendum

[dakky]

Betfair now have leave at 37% bit of a move on. 

Gordon Brown intervention can't be a positive can it?

Don't think it's anything to do with him. It's more the result of the latest guardian polling

[PokerBroker]

Betfair now have leave at 37% bit of a move on. 

Gordon Brown intervention can't be a positive can it?

It was in the Scottish referendum

And look how that worked out for Scottish Labour at the latest election.  Brown has been sent out to get the Labour message across.  A great speaker, but now shown to be totally untrustworthy and powerless. 

[PokerBroker]

SUN SAYS We urge our readers to beLEAVE in Britain and vote to quit the EU on June 23

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1277920/we-urge-our-readers-to-believe-in-britain-and-vote-to-leave-the-eu-in-referendum-on-june-23/

Hardly a surprise but this is sure to have an impact of sorts, and I wonder how long it will be before other newspapers run front news pages and editorials. 

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.