The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[4KSuited]

Whilst I admire Farage's "I won't blink first" bravado, I must say that his intentionally provocative, insulting statement this morning was an embarrassment to our country and seriously compromises the possibility of achieving what he says he wants to achieve.

Therefore I'm increasingly of the opinion that all his posturing is nothing other than self-serving. I hope to God that neither he nor the incompetent Boris Johnson achieve no more than side-event roles in any of our governments going forward.

[RED-DOG]

Whilst I admire Farage's "I won't blink first" bravado, I must say that his intentionally provocative, insulting statement this morning was an embarrassment to our country and seriously compromises the possibility of achieving what he says he wants to achieve.

Therefore I'm increasingly of the opinion that all his posturing is nothing other than self-serving. I hope to God that neither he nor the incompetent Boris Johnson achieve no more than side-event roles in any of our governments going forward.

This.

Absolutely no excuse for addressing anyone in those tones.

[TightEnd]

the Corbyn no confidence motion passed 172-40, with 17 abstentions/no shows

if he decides to stay (unprecedented, but unprecedented times) he needs 35 nominations to get on the ballot next time

so the question becomes how many of those 40 nominate him?

that is assuming he's not automatically on the ballot (different legal interpretations, NEC needs to choose one)

if he is on the ballot it is widely assumed he wins again. (membership)

in which case where does the PLP go?

The tories are funking hard for Corbyn to stay.

[4KSuited]

I've been mulling over the issue of how the pollsters got it so badly wrong - again.

Whilst they all had %'s for Leave, Remain and Undecided, none of them showed any representation of "Not Going to Vote". Surely during the polling process they would encounter a representative proportion of these people. Using usual techniques, they'd be able to profile the "NGV" group.

Perhaps someone with better/inside knowledge of polling techniques & rationale could elaborate?

Meanwhile, voter idiocy is not limited to the Leave side: this morning on 5Live I listened whilst an 18-24 from Walsall said something like this: "I voted remain because, you know - was it the Greeks? - everyone lends a hand and helps you out when you get into trouble. I mean, when we get into that spot, who's going to chip in and help US out?"

i think they all had not going to vote representation, it ran at 4-5% through the polling. very understated particularly among younger people...but its typically much tougher to poll younger people as a) they are not politically engaged as much b) no landlines for telephone polling

4-5% seems pretty low don't you think? This suggests 95% turnout assuming the Undecideds actually make up their minds and vote. Or 85% turnout if they can't make a decision. Actual t/out at 73% means that something in the model wasn't quite right...

Or am I missing something here?

I'm pushing the point, since perhaps there were a lot of people who believed the bookmakers, the City boys' read, the pollsters etc etc and thought "well, since Remain's a virtual certainty, it won't make any difference if I just put a big fat X in the Leave box - so at least my heart can feel good about it".

[The Camel]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

[TightEnd]

I've been mulling over the issue of how the pollsters got it so badly wrong - again.

Whilst they all had %'s for Leave, Remain and Undecided, none of them showed any representation of "Not Going to Vote". Surely during the polling process they would encounter a representative proportion of these people. Using usual techniques, they'd be able to profile the "NGV" group.

Perhaps someone with better/inside knowledge of polling techniques & rationale could elaborate?

Meanwhile, voter idiocy is not limited to the Leave side: this morning on 5Live I listened whilst an 18-24 from Walsall said something like this: "I voted remain because, you know - was it the Greeks? - everyone lends a hand and helps you out when you get into trouble. I mean, when we get into that spot, who's going to chip in and help US out?"

i think they all had not going to vote representation, it ran at 4-5% through the polling. very understated particularly among younger people...but its typically much tougher to poll younger people as a) they are not politically engaged as much b) no landlines for telephone polling

4-5% seems pretty low don't you think? This suggests 95% turnout assuming the Undecideds actually make up their minds and vote. Or 85% turnout if they can't make a decision. Actual t/out at 73% means that something in the model wasn't quite right...

Or am I missing something here?

I'm pushing the point, since perhaps there were a lot of people who believed the bookmakers, the City boys' read, the pollsters etc etc and thought "well, since Remain's a virtual certainty, it won't make any difference if I just put a big fat X in the Leave box - so at least my heart can feel good about it".

roughly, i haven't checked back

45 remain
42 leave
8 undecided
5 won't vote

was a fairly routine poll before the day wasn't it?

overall turnout was 73%. its easier to say something to a pollster (you can say anything, whether you mean it or not?) than it is to physically bother to vote?

[TightEnd]

this was the image david3103 was referring to earlier

a classic

[PokerBroker]

Has anyone actually read the BNP manifesto?  They aren't actually that bad, it's more bravado and the idiots that run around with them.  Nick Griffiths despite being a clown actually had some relatively decent policies that the left found palatable.  

[BigAdz]

Whilst I admire Farage's "I won't blink first" bravado, I must say that his intentionally provocative, insulting statement this morning was an embarrassment to our country and seriously compromises the possibility of achieving what he says he wants to achieve.

Therefore I'm increasingly of the opinion that all his posturing is nothing other than self-serving. I hope to God that neither he nor the incompetent Boris Johnson achieve no more than side-event roles in any of our governments going forward.

I like to approach these things with an open mind, and whilst I am very much a Leaver, and I enjoyed the Farage Barage, there was something uncomfortable about it, as if he was the wimpy/bullied kid at school, who had gone away, learnt martial arts and had come back to wreak havoc with the bullies that undermined him.

That said, having seen first hand what they are like in Brussels, it was also much deserved. But i hope it was a one off, clear the air and get on with it speech.

Time will tell.

[TightEnd]

Has anyone actually read the BNP manifesto?  They aren't actually that bad, it's more bravado and the idiots that run around with them.  Nick Griffiths despite being a clown actually had some relatively decent policies that the left found palatable. 

Nick Griffin. not Griffiths

[BigAdz]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

Probably the fact we fund them enough to get by each week to pay for fags/booze and sky TV, and still dont have to work for it...

[DaveShoelace]

Has anyone actually read the BNP manifesto?  They aren't actually that bad, it's more bravado and the idiots that run around with them.  Nick Griffiths despite being a clown actually had some relatively decent policies that the left found palatable.  

[TightEnd]

a unique moment in british politics

he is staying. No leader has ever persisted in face of so much opposition from their MPs.

Click to see full-size image.

[nirvana]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

It's pretty desperate and you see the same in some southern coastal towns. The thing is I don't blame those people for thinking like they do and I don't blame a politician like Farage for wanting to tap that discontent. I do blame our  me first 'society' and politicians..Most definitely to include the Blairite element. That's the root cause and we should attack those people for creating this environment..not Farage for exploiting it. If we do that..nothing ever changes..except we become more polarised.

You can see it now..The most socially inclined of all the politicians, the most in touch with the disaffected  (not on the extreme right) is having everything laid at his door. It's fkn mental from where I sit and enables the.same politicians who caused the issue to blame someone else, move on and change nothing.

[The Camel]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

It's pretty desperate and you see the same in some southern coastal towns. The thing is I don't blame those people for thinking like they do and I don't blame a politician like Farage for wanting to tap that discontent. I do blame our  me first 'society' and politicians..Most definitely to include the Blairite element. That's the root cause and we should attack those people for creating this environment..not Farage for exploiting it. If we do that..nothing ever changes..except we become more polarised.

You can see it now..The most socially inclined of all the politicians, the most in touch with the disaffected  (not on the extreme right) is having everything laid at his door. It's fkn mental from where I sit and enables the.same politicians who caused the issue to blame someone else, move on and change nothing.

It duplicitous in the extreme for Farage to appeal to these voters.

His policies will not create jobs, cause investment into the run down areas, increase benefits, invest in schools, hospitals or community projects. Which are the policies the people in Redcar need.

They are about cutting tax for the rich. Start and end of story.