The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Brexit 'most important moment since Berlin Wall': Le Pen

interview is on newsnight tonight

text here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36653381

[Doobs]

a unique moment in british politics

he is staying. No leader has ever persisted in face of so much opposition from their MPs.

Click to see full-size image.

60% of Labour members and recent infiltrators.  It was definitely not 60% of labour supporters.  It isn't his party, it is the party of the voters who will still support them at each election.   Corbyn and his supporters need to remember that pretty soon.

[david3103]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

It's pretty desperate and you see the same in some southern coastal towns. The thing is I don't blame those people for thinking like they do and I don't blame a politician like Farage for wanting to tap that discontent. I do blame our  me first 'society' and politicians..Most definitely to include the Blairite element. That's the root cause and we should attack those people for creating this environment..not Farage for exploiting it. If we do that..nothing ever changes..except we become more polarised.

You can see it now..The most socially inclined of all the politicians, the most in touch with the disaffected  (not on the extreme right) is having everything laid at his door. It's fkn mental from where I sit and enables the.same politicians who caused the issue to blame someone else, move on and change nothing.

It duplicitous in the extreme for Farage to appeal to these voters.

His policies will not create jobs, cause investment into the run down areas, increase benefits, invest in schools, hospitals or community projects. Which are the policies the people in Redcar need.

They are about cutting tax for the rich. Start and end of story.

Keith, you might want to read this before you assume that Redcar voted Out because they are all ignorant racists...

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-16-118_en.htm

Cliffs: EU rules limit state aid and indeed prevent it being used in rescue situations.

For those who think poverty is a choice made by the poor, Redcar was a true Steel Town and has been all but abandoned by successive governments

[AndrewT]

the Corbyn no confidence motion passed 172-40, with 17 abstentions/no shows

if he decides to stay (unprecedented, but unprecedented times) he needs 35 nominations to get on the ballot next time

so the question becomes how many of those 40 nominate him?

that is assuming he's not automatically on the ballot (different legal interpretations, NEC needs to choose one)

if he is on the ballot it is widely assumed he wins again. (membership)

in which case where does the PLP go?

The tories are funking hard for Corbyn to stay.

I would have thought that if Corbyn wins the leadership election then the anti-Corbyn MPs have no choice but to resign from the party and form an SDP-type party and Labour would officially split.

[PokerBroker]

Has anyone actually read the BNP manifesto?  They aren't actually that bad, it's more bravado and the idiots that run around with them.  Nick Griffiths despite being a clown actually had some relatively decent policies that the left found palatable. 

Nick Griffin. not Griffiths

Yep him.  Multi-tasking not my strong point!

[EvilPie]

Whilst I admire Farage's "I won't blink first" bravado, I must say that his intentionally provocative, insulting statement this morning was an embarrassment to our country and seriously compromises the possibility of achieving what he says he wants to achieve.

Therefore I'm increasingly of the opinion that all his posturing is nothing other than self-serving. I hope to God that neither he nor the incompetent Boris Johnson achieve no more than side-event roles in any of our governments going forward.

This.

Absolutely no excuse for addressing anyone in those tones.

Even if it's true? I'm not saying it is by the way as I don't have a clue.

[PokerBroker]

Has anyone actually read the BNP manifesto?  They aren't actually that bad, it's more bravado and the idiots that run around with them.  Nick Griffiths despite being a clown actually had some relatively decent policies that the left found palatable.  

Chapeau!    

[RED-DOG]

Whilst I admire Farage's "I won't blink first" bravado, I must say that his intentionally provocative, insulting statement this morning was an embarrassment to our country and seriously compromises the possibility of achieving what he says he wants to achieve.

Therefore I'm increasingly of the opinion that all his posturing is nothing other than self-serving. I hope to God that neither he nor the incompetent Boris Johnson achieve no more than side-event roles in any of our governments going forward.

This.

Absolutely no excuse for addressing anyone in those tones.

Even if it's true? I'm not saying it is by the way as I don't have a clue.

Yes, even if it's true. (IMO of course) Civility costs nothing.

[EvilPie]

At last, the BBC showed a business that was happy to state that as a steel company producing 80% exports, now they can ditch the 30 pages of EU paperwork that accompanies every order, they can now actually concentrate on manufacturing, and get back to growing the company, which they now expect to expand.

Shame we only hear about the shit stuff.



PS. I saw the Farge Barage in the Euro parliament. Brilliant stuff.

Nice to finally see a positive story especially one which might create some jobs.

I was thinking about all the negative stories involving job losses earlier. Is it possible that a lot of these losses were inevitable no matter what the outcome of the vote and the Companies were just hanging on to announce given that they might get an incredible chance to blame it all on someone else?

If I was a big corporation and I was thinking of canning a chunk of staff what an amazing opportunity to do it on the cheap. All those redundancies and a gift wrapped reason to justify them. What a saving that would be.

[TightEnd]

Why is it on the cheap? Employment contracts and redundancy terms haven't changed

[nirvana]

Having just seen Farage's performance in Brussels this morning you have to hand it to him. The fella isn't afraid to get stuck in and tell it how he see's it.

I've thought this for a while and even more so now, if Nigel Farage was the leader of either the Tory or Labour parties and was fighting their ideals and manifesto's both of those parties would be more popular. If you take away the unsavoury past and the racism does the actual way he fights for his party/Brexit endear him to his supporters in a way that the main party leaders don't?

I saw something yesterday that said the increase in value to the Brexit argument from Boris Johnson's involvement was about a 2% swing.

If you listed Farage's involvement in Brexit simply as politician A. Then listed a 22 year fight to get from a vote of under 1,000 in his first by-election to over 17 million voters agreeing with his view for the leave campaign last week isn't that an incredible political achievement from a man/Party with very little actual political clout?

Could he be seen as a big achieving politician that is Leader of a Party that has too many unappealing views to take them much further. If he was available to the Tory's or Labour to fight their principals for a football type transfer fee would he fetch a huge fee or be avoided at all costs?

** Just to make it clear, I didn't vote last week and have only ever voted Tory in any election so have no UKIP/Leave leanings here.

Just like Hitler in the 1930s he has tapped into the basest fears and prejudices of the population at a time of deep recession.

Yr becoming a bit of a drama queen my old son. Even at the height of 2008s economic issues you can't compare the situation with 1930s Germany.  Not even close. Greece comes closer but all are issues are pretty first world to use a cliché, compared with then. Of course there are faint echoes. In addition, the shift in people's perceptions and actual votes as well as he increase in support for a Ukip thang comes at a time when we were far from in recession. The issue is much more complex and is about first world inequality. It's not base at all or connected specifically to prejudice. It's totally how it should be and it's a shame the mainstream parties don't address this..like, not ever

Glenn, I had an epiphany on Sunday.

My boy was playing a football tournament in Redcar. I live near Darlington, which isn't exactly booming, but there are some nice enough parts and there is broad class spectrum living here.

But while I was in Redcar, I left the tournament for an hour while Jake didn't have a game to find a petrol station.

I drove around some terribly deprived and run down areas. I doubt these houses are worth any more than 45k.

Litter everywhere, dogs running around the streets, broken down cars sitting seemingly every other front yard, shops with boarded up windows and kids sitting out on the curbs like it was bloody 1930. It was anyone's definition of a shithole.

There were union jacks, flags of st george and vote leave posters/placards everywhere.

I just wanted to ask some of the residents "So what is so bloody great about this country?"

It's pretty desperate and you see the same in some southern coastal towns. The thing is I don't blame those people for thinking like they do and I don't blame a politician like Farage for wanting to tap that discontent. I do blame our  me first 'society' and politicians..Most definitely to include the Blairite element. That's the root cause and we should attack those people for creating this environment..not Farage for exploiting it. If we do that..nothing ever changes..except we become more polarised.

You can see it now..The most socially inclined of all the politicians, the most in touch with the disaffected  (not on the extreme right) is having everything laid at his door. It's fkn mental from where I sit and enables the.same politicians who caused the issue to blame someone else, move on and change nothing.

It duplicitous in the extreme for Farage to appeal to these voters.

His policies will not create jobs, cause investment into the run down areas, increase benefits, invest in schools, hospitals or community projects. Which are the policies the people in Redcar need.

They are about cutting tax for the rich. Start and end of story.

I don't doubt it - though I have no truck with Farage and his ilk, I can't see that agenda as any different to the Labour party for 13 years and the Tories most of the time either side of it.

With those 2 parties the arguments are petty over one more hospital or school here or there, over a few pence on tax here and there or a few £ on benefits - no-one actually tries to structurally address the inequity.

In the meantime, the home owning, in work population has a barely masked contempt for the under privileged 'chavs' - it's not surprising that they then might rally around a voice, any voice - so I kind of take your ticket but the answer isn't to fear Farage or demonise the lefter leaning parts of the labour party - it's to actually change something and that means more taxes, more spending - any brain drain slack can be taken up by immigration as far as I'm concerned

[EvilPie]

Why is it on the cheap? Employment contracts and redundancy terms haven't changed

You can't just make somebody redundant unless their job no longer exists. Brexit gives a reason for redundancy that nobody's going to question. Great opportunity to trim the fat a bit and get rid of some dead wood.

[nirvana]

Why is it on the cheap? Employment contracts and redundancy terms haven't changed

Redundancy in the UK is dirt cheap anyway versus our European neighbours with most major companies paying statutory minimum these days

[Doobs]

Why is it on the cheap? Employment contracts and redundancy terms haven't changed

And steel man will still have to do his 30 page* document because we are still in the EU right now and even if we weren't it is going to take some time to rewrite all these things that are now part of EU law.  Then even if we repeal some of the rules if he wants to export, and the importing country wants a 30 page document with his steel consignment...

* I have no idea what is in the 30 page document.  

[DMorgan]

Its been a very interesting 80-odd page catch up to say the least. This needed more love though.

I think we're missing the biggest question to come out of all this.

What curry did Arbboy order?

his insides bias?

Is it that much of a given that Corbyn would win another leadership election? There were a lot of people signing up to vote him in and they were making all of the noise but this was against a backdrop of electoral defeat with Milliband. With a probable GE this year and huge losses expected under Corbyn I think that a lot of the traditional Labour vote that hasn't gone UKIP/Con already could be really galvanized to sign up to vote for another candidate that has the opportunity to do well in the GE and implement some of the populist policies that were previously off the table. The Leave result is the electorate putting a gun to the head of MPs everywhere. People want change that is what will win the next GE, the electorate won't stand for the percieved red or blue tinkering around the edges any more.

As far as I know, registering to vote in a party leadership elections was never really talked about widely before but it caught fire on social media as this new, edgy thing and the Corbyn supporters were just the first through the door since they have the highest engagement on social media. Now the cat is out of the bag and it could be the new normal to sign up and vote in party leadership elections and if that what happens then Corbyns majority could fade fast. I have only ever voted Labour and I didn't register to vote for Corbyn as leader but I definitely will register to vote against him because I don't see any outcome other than electoral oblivion if he stays. Prospects are still bleak with a new leader but they can't get much worse than that are right now.

imo if Labour/Cons don't step up and offer radical change then it won't matter who is leader, UKIP will do very well in a snap GE and won't be far off Camels numbers.