The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

If your friends have the exact same opinions and values as you do, you are probably in a cult.

Of course they don't have the same opinions.

Some support Corbyn, some don't.

Some would like to privatise railways some wouldn't.

Etc etc. Difference of opinions are great.

But all would support an equal age of consent for straight and gay kids, all would support equal rights at work for women, all would be against the death penalty etc etc

What percentage of Tory voters do you think don't support equal rights for women?  Or are anti-death penalty?  Or support equal gay rights?  You are indulging in some heavy stereotyping here.  Many Tories just support small government.  (although the current batch seem spectacularly useless in that endeavour)

I would guess less than 10% of Tories believe in all 3 of those values.

And they were plucked out of thin air, far more than that. Trade Union rights. civil liberties, anti war, yada yada yada

Looks like you have a "red team good/blue team bad" view of politics.  Fair enough but it's a shame you pick your friends on such a binary basis!

I have great friends who have a whole range of political views.

There are of course good and bad people on both sides of the political divide.

Being right of centre doesn't mean you have no morals or social conscience. That argument is frankly just daft!

[TightEnd]

But all would support an equal age of consent for straight and gay kids, all would support equal rights at work for women, all would be against the death penalty etc etc

Most (or at least many) conservatives I know also support all three of those things.

i have voted conservative all my adult life and believe in all three things above

won't be voting conservative this time though

[TightEnd]

"there is a sense that people are coming together and uniting behind the opportunities that lie ahead"

fucks sake, look at this front cover...

saboteurs?! really?

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

and this is pretty low rent too

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[TightEnd]

Bookies give Labour a 5% chance of victory; Tories a 79% chance.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/theresa-may-heading-general-election-landslide/

[TightEnd]

i must have heard half a dozen "why now" post hoc justifications

pre-brexit,election expenses etc then this

George Eaton‏Verified account @georgeeaton

Increasing speculation that Corbyn could step down before 2020 was important factor in election decision, say Tories.

[DaveShoelace]

I suspect Keith has confused conservatism, which for me is just small government and less barriers for business (in the classic sense not necessarily the current government), with theocratic US style Republican Christians. There is a real tendency on the left to create their own dragons to slay and make ascribe nefarious motives to people that don't have them, hence all the screaming of racist and nazi after recent US and UK elections.

[TightEnd]

ICM turned this round in 3 hours post announcement

ICM/Guardian:

CON 46 (+2)
LAB 25 (-1)
LD 11 (+1)
UKIP 8 (-3)
GRN 4 (=)
SNP 4

18th Apr (post-announcement) N=1,000 https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf …

[TightEnd]

which would mean (assumes uniform swing,which it wouldn't because i think there will be a lot of tactical voting this time)

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

ICM also asked

ICM/Guardian (Re early election):

SUPPORT 55
OPPOSE 15

https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf …

which i think is again interesting.

[TightEnd]

and it as pretty popular across party lines....

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

another reason!

May's real reason for calling election? To show EU that Brexit really means Brexit | Patrick Wintour

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/mays-real-reason-for-calling-election-to-show-eu-that-brexit-really-means-brexit?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

YouGov(Election Right/Wrong): also asked the question...

RIGHT 49
WRONG 17

18th April N=3,508
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/ac4f13f0-241b-11e7-939c-aada186fb1ac/question/105547e0-241f-11e7-939c-aada186fb1ac/politics …

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

guido had something interesting about labour

[DaveShoelace]

guido had something interesting about labour

In a way this might long term be good for British politics, in that it might strengthen the Lib Dems and it would get rid of Corbyn thus potentially making Labour more centrist in the future. Maybe even making Lab/Lib a potential future coalition? Never understood why they couldn't work together.