The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

front of the FT today

Click to see full-size image.

the strategy is interesting.plenty of red meat to attract the kippers over on the one hand, and plenty of centre/centre-left stuff (eg intervention in energy market which was an ed miliband policy) to take the ground vacated by labour in appealing to marginal voters

[TightEnd]

'Brexit is settled' - or is it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39864140

[TightEnd]

Telegraph reporting that 100 moderate LAB MPs to form breakaway group if Corbyn stays on after CON landslide

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

[Woodsey]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

[Woodsey]

 

[DaveShoelace]

When do the manifestos typically come out during an election cycle? I know a snap election probably makes it harder to say.

[nirvana]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

I nearly subscribe to the N'S but never quite do it. Are you on commish

[TightEnd]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

I nearly subscribe to the N'S but never quite do it. Are you on commish

i'm sad, really enjoy the NS and the spectator.

subscribe to both but don't to the times or the FT which are behind paywalls. find i can get all that from the indy, guardian or telegraph

you can get all of these NS articles by following them on twitter

[TightEnd]

When do the manifestos typically come out during an election cycle? I know a snap election probably makes it harder to say.

typicaly earlier than this

con and lab due out this week, obviously not much notice compared to the standard cycle so later than normal

[TightEnd]

someone asked about London the other day

this out just now

London Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (+4)
CON: 36% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-)
UKIP: 6% (-3)
GRN 3 (-2)

(via @YouGov / 27 Apr - 02 May)

fewer UKIP voters for Con to squeeze, so Lab holds up ok

[Doobs]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

[Woodsey]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

I didn't have you down as one of the bitter ones looking for any justification as to why we should stay in 

[Doobs]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

I didn't have you down as one of the bitter ones looking for any justification as to why we should stay in 

I had you down as a respecter of the "will of the people".  Get respecting it and stop filling this board with all this leaving nonsense.

Will of the people is all that matters.  I am sure Farage agrees here.

[Woodsey]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

I didn't have you down as one of the bitter ones looking for any justification as to why we should stay in 

I had you down as a respecter of the "will of the people".  Get respecting it and stop filling this board with all this leaving nonsense.

Will of the people is all that matters.  I am sure Farage agrees here.

I respect the vote so yes, there is no nonsense we are leaving and taking the whiners with us. 

Besides there is a huge assumption you have made that nullifies your point. You have assumed that voter intention does not change as people get older, you correctly point out that older people are more likely to vote out, so it's very possible their vote might change with age, there is a general swing across the population from left to right with age, so it could very well happen with the in/out vote too.

[TightEnd]

I have added a poll, how will you vote on june 8th.

top of the page,one vote per person

will do one now and one in a few weeks.

see how the blonde electorate thinks....