The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

meanwhile before the "was it or was it not a cock up" discussion

Labour is creeping closer again

YouGov/Times:

CON 46 (-2)
LAB 30 (+1)
LD 11 (+1)
UKIP 5 (=)
OTH 8 (=)
9th-10th May
N=1,651

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

snap analysis of it, who the big winners and losers of the labour manifesto would be:

http://www.newstatesman.com/leaked-labour-manifesto-corbyn-vision-labour-election …

[TightEnd]

Theresa May's post-Thatcherite approach to politics is baffling those on both the left and right

http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2017/05/leader-post-liberal-pm

[TightEnd]

with apologies to doobs again

We're mapping out what we can tell from where this election's air war is going. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39874420

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Labour’s approach to Brexit? The greatest upset of the greatest number of people according to....

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/labours-approach-to-brexit-the-greatest-upset-of-the-greatest-number/

[AndrewT]

Love how both the Mail and the Telegraph criticise Labour for wanting to take Britain back to the 1970s.

They do this because that's not far enough - the Mail want to return to the 1950s and the Telegraph would rather turn the clock back to about 1870.

[nirvana]

Between the Dianne Abbott balls up and the Tories saying 'coalition of chaos' every 30 seconds, I don't see how JC leaked it because it plays write into the whole 'he cant even lead his own team' narrative.

Someone thought it was time that it was for the many, not the few

[TightEnd]

Is Corbyn's manifesto 'Miliband without the Balls'? (both critics and supporters cd claim it)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2017/05/11/the-waugh-zone-may-11-201_0_n_16555432.html

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

with apologies to doobs again

We're mapping out what we can tell from where this election's air war is going. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39874420

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

You don't have to apologise if the graph is clear.  This one is much clearer than the one which confused me.  

I don't think there is much evidence that Corbyn is choosing his campaigning seats much differently to May.    There are only two "wasted" visits to big labour majority seats and there are a couple of "wasted" visits by May over there too.  There are similar numbers of red circles and blue circles in the marginals too.  

This whole, Corbyn isn't campaigning in the right places, narrative doesn't seem to have much evidence to back it up.

Please point out where I am wrong.

[Doobs]

Between the Dianne Abbott balls up and the Tories saying 'coalition of chaos' every 30 seconds, I don't see how JC leaked it because it plays write into the whole 'he cant even lead his own team' narrative.

I don't see how anyone gains from the other side either.  Undermining Corbyn right in the middle of the election isn't just going to costs seats on the left wing of the party.

And fwiw just because an action appears to be really stupid after 5 seconds thought, doesn't seems to be a barrier to the actions of either side of the labour party right now. 

[Sheriff Fatman]

with apologies to doobs again

We're mapping out what we can tell from where this election's air war is going. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39874420

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

You don't have to apologise if the graph is clear.  This one is much clearer than the one which confused me.  

I don't think there is much evidence that Corbyn is choosing his campaigning seats much differently to May.    There are only two "wasted" visits to big labour majority seats and there are a couple of "wasted" visits by May over there too.  There are similar numbers of red circles and blue circles in the marginals too.  

This whole, Corbyn isn't campaigning in the right places, narrative doesn't seem to have much evidence to back it up.

Please point out where I am wrong.

Not sure what the 'official' take on this is but it feels wrong to me that he's concentrating on Tory-held seats of varying majorities, which is a strategy you'd anticipate if you were expecting to gain seats and win an election, but which every piece of polling data tells you is not the case.  The safe Labour constituencies are also wasted efforts.

Logically, the best place for a party leader in a declining party to operate would be those marginally-held Labour seats in an attempt to defend them (which is precisely where May's visits appear to be concentrated).

Effectively the analysis looks like there's no effort being placed in these 'defend' seats, or (if you believe the reasoning) that Corbyn's name is so poisonous on the doorsteps that he's been deliberately kept away from them.

May's campaigning, in comparison, is exactly where you'd expect it to be - Labour-held seats, mostly marginals.

[TightEnd]

the suggestion is he is campaigning in seats with high labour membership, and high momentum membership...the aim being to shore his vote up for the next labour leadership election. not so much 8th june focussed as his re-election that he hopes follows

[TightEnd]

Starmer's recent pledge - that EU freedom of movement would 'end' - is not in the draft manifesto. It is being said that labour'sstance in imigration is not strong enough on the doorstep

on the upside, the leak has given Labour a 18 hour and counting uninterrupted news cycle. as many of the policies poll well, that is probably an (intended or unintended, we don't know who leaked it) nice bonus for them 

[Woodsey]

the suggestion is he is campaigning in seats with high labour membership, and high momentum membership...the aim being to shore his vote up for the next labour leadership election. not so much 8th june focussed as his re-election that he hopes follows

Unbelievable he's serious about it. His policies no matter how good intentioned they are will simply never get voted in, he is better off letting a centre left person in, at least they would have a shot and he at least gets a few more policies he likes compared to the Tories.

[AndrewT]

with apologies to doobs again

We're mapping out what we can tell from where this election's air war is going. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39874420

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

You don't have to apologise if the graph is clear.  This one is much clearer than the one which confused me. 

I don't think there is much evidence that Corbyn is choosing his campaigning seats much differently to May.    There are only two "wasted" visits to big labour majority seats and there are a couple of "wasted" visits by May over there too.  There are similar numbers of red circles and blue circles in the marginals too. 

This whole, Corbyn isn't campaigning in the right places, narrative doesn't seem to have much evidence to back it up.

Please point out where I am wrong.

Not sure what the 'official' take on this is but it feels wrong to me that he's concentrating on Tory-held seats of varying majorities, which is a strategy you'd anticipate if you were expecting to gain seats and win an election, but which every piece of polling data tells you is not the case.  The safe Labour constituencies are also wasted efforts.

Logically, the best place for a party leader in a declining party to operate would be those marginally-held Labour seats in an attempt to defend them (which is precisely where May's visits appear to be concentrated).

Effectively the analysis looks like there's no effort being placed in these 'defend' seats, or (if you believe the reasoning) that Corbyn's name is so poisonous on the doorsteps that he's been deliberately kept away from them.

May's campaigning, in comparison, is exactly where you'd expect it to be - Labour-held seats, mostly marginals.

Yes, (and this was a point Nate Silver made in the US election) - if you take the current polls as being the current state of play, then you use that to guide where you go.

So, on current polling, every marginal Lab/Con seat from the previous election turns blue and the 'true' marginals are current Labour seats with a decent majority which are at risk if current polls hold up on election day.