The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

i thought this was interesting. support for far right and far left policies (far = how they are described)

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

this is how Scottish council votes would look on Westminster boundaries (NOT a GE2017 prediction!)

http://app.ft.com/content/e86a4bae-34db-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e?sectionid=uk

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

“Forwards to a better Milibandism and refighting the last war.” a view of Labour's draft manifesto

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-manifesto-leaked-jeremy-corbyn-policies-general-election-what-we-know-about-civil-war-a7729496.html

[TightEnd]

Labour's manifesto policies are popular but they won't determine who wins the election

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labours-manifesto-policies-are-popular-they-wont-determine-who-wins

(more on this in a bit)

[TightEnd]

[TightEnd]

a really good read

Heroic attempt to explain internal Labour politics to an American audience by Professor Tim Bale

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/10/britains-labour-party-is-seeing-a-flood-of-new-members-thats-why-its-in-such-trouble/?utm_term=.9968d4385490

[TightEnd]

The leaked Labour manifesto: three guardian writers on how the policies stack up

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/11/leaked-labour-manifesto-policies-clause-v?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[DaveShoelace]

i thought this was interesting. support for far right and far left policies (far = how they are described)

Click to see full-size image.

Not of the left ones seem especially radical. When I think of 'radical far left' I am thinking of stuff like 100% tax over certain thresholds and insisting on everything being gender neutral.

Right ones seem pretty radical

[TightEnd]

Labour’s manifesto reveals one thing: the Left has run out of ideas, says Stephen Daisley

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/labours-manifesto-reveals-one-thing-left-run-ideas/

[TightEnd]

Latest Spreadex Commons spreads

CON 398-404
LAB 154-160
LD 16-19
UKIP 0.1-1
GRN 0.75-1.75
SNP 44-47

https://spreadex.com?tid=356758spreadex.com/?tid=356758spreadex.com/?tid=356758spr

[DaveShoelace]

Click to see full-size image.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/populist-personalities-the-big-five-personality-traits-and-party-choice-in-the-2015-uk-general-election/

The Big Five Personality Traits and party choice in the 2015 UK general election

This pretty much conforms to every stereotype you have about the main political parties, absolutely fascinating.

If you even remotely find this interesting, this book is a must read btw

The fact that, "This pretty much conforms to every stereotype you have about the main political parties..." is pretty suspicious but not necessarily wrong, but after a quick look it doesn't seem to say anywhere what the sample size is. Is it in one of the links? (for example)

No idea, I didn't question any of that in this case because I have seen it almost exactly replicated in a large study of American political leanings and personality traits, and also in the book mentioned.

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn’s misguided bid to turn the clock back - FT View on Labour's draft manifesto

https://www.ft.com/content/c42c2e72-364f-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

 We Tried To See If The Sums For Labour's Draft Manifesto Promises Add Up

TL;DR: There's a lot more spending than ways to fund it, but the party has yet to spell out its detailed plans.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/we-tried-to-see-if-the-sums-for-labours-draft-manifesto?utm_term=.jqYLnVM9R#.phbQ4wJl9

[TightEnd]

"Bregret" across class, generation and geography Source: YouGov May 9-10

[TightEnd]

you might have picked up that UKIP is skint. yesterday was the deadline for nominations and they are only standing in 400 of 652 seats

this has big implications for some constituencies

no UKIP, majority go Con?

some egs

No UKIP candidate in Leeds NW where alex sobel is up against LD's Greg Mulholland again. UKIP got 3,000 votes in 2015, majority is 3,000

No UKIP candidate in Ben Bradshaw's Exeter seat. UKIP got 5,000 votes in 2015; majority is 7,183 votes for Labour over Tories

No UKIP candidate in Wrexham. UKIP got 5,072 votes in 2015; majority is 1,831 for Labour over Conservatives.


@election_data have masses of these. no time to go through them and double check the constituency betting markets

however the big right wing shift ukip to Con is going to turn plenty of seats conservative and not standing in 250 seats exacerbates this