The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

I didn't have you down as one of the bitter ones looking for any justification as to why we should stay in 

I had you down as a respecter of the "will of the people".  Get respecting it and stop filling this board with all this leaving nonsense.

Will of the people is all that matters.  I am sure Farage agrees here.

I respect the vote so yes, there is no nonsense we are leaving and taking the whiners with us. 

Besides there is a huge assumption you have made that nullifies your point. You have assumed that voter intention does not change as people get older, you correctly point out that older people are more likely to vote out, so it's very possible their vote might change with age, there is a general swing across the population from left to right with age, so it could very well happen with the in/out vote too.

That last point is very valid woodsey.

I think, irrespective of who won, the idea of re-running the EU vote is just crackers.

If people don't turn out to vote on such a critical issue, more fool them. 

[Woodsey]

an interesting read

The Remain delusion: "the 48%" do not exist - new blog

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/remain-delusion-48-cent-do-not-exist

Not really a surprise, a fair chunk of remainers accept democracy and are happy to go with the result. It is the the 25% of vocal remoaners that are left. If there was another ref tomorrow I reckon leave would get a bigger win because some of the remainers that believe in democracy would vote the other way out of principle.

People throw about this "if you believe in democracy" phrase a bit too much without stopping to think about it.

I say this because the EU referendum seems to produce a lot of evidence that we should doubt democracy, rather than believe in it. 

It was reasonably clear that on a narrow win for leave that the majority of eligible voters actually wanted remain.  You can work this back from knowing that a big proportion of the younger voters behaved like the young people they are, and just couldn't be arsed to vote.  This together with  far smaller proportion of the older voters making the same mistake, hence the vote didn't really reflect the will of the people.  Knowing that 70% of the younger voters were remainers and 70% of pensioners were leavers means that on the day democracy didn't produce the result the majority of the eligible voters wanted.

But we can take this further, and we know about 600,000 people are dying each year.  The vast majority of these people are the over 65s coffin dodgers.   So we are losing maybe 500,000 over 65s a year, so each year we lose 200,000+ people who wanted to leave over those who wanted to remain.  By contracst we have 800,000 28 year olds becoming eligible to vote each year, so we are gaining 300,000+ eligible voters who want to remain. 

So each year the vote is naturally swinging towards remain by over half a million people a year.  The EU exit is going to take us until March 2019 if everything goes smoothly, which is the best part of 3 years.  In that time the eligible voters will now be for remain by another 1.5m+.  This is on top of what looks a reasonably clear EU majority in the first place.  The referendum result was only 1.25 million more in favour of leaving than staying.

So in March 2019, or whenever it is, we are going to get a situation where a clear majority of the population doesn't think what we just did was a good idea.

And this is before we even start to consider the amount of lies fed to the populace by the remain campagin and the tabloids over the years.     

If you still believe that this is all about believing in the will of the people then you should vote remain in a second referendum.  You really should.

And if you still believe that democracy is perfect, it just isn't.  Obvioulsy better than any tried alternative, but believe in it?  No thanks.   

I didn't have you down as one of the bitter ones looking for any justification as to why we should stay in 

I had you down as a respecter of the "will of the people".  Get respecting it and stop filling this board with all this leaving nonsense.

Will of the people is all that matters.  I am sure Farage agrees here.

I respect the vote so yes, there is no nonsense we are leaving and taking the whiners with us. 

Besides there is a huge assumption you have made that nullifies your point. You have assumed that voter intention does not change as people get older, you correctly point out that older people are more likely to vote out, so it's very possible their vote might change with age, there is a general swing across the population from left to right with age, so it could very well happen with the in/out vote too.

That last point is very valid woodsey.

I think, irrespective of who won, the idea of re-running the EU vote is just crackers.

If people don't turn out to vote on such a critical issue, more fool them. 

Yup, that point was made very quickly after the vote when many of the kids were crying in their milk, fact is if they had bothered to vote they might well have swung it the other way. If only they could have got their heads out of their phones, their arses off the sofa for long enough to actually go and do it.

[TightEnd]

Last night the entire Labour manifesto,all 43 pages of it wasleakedsimultaneously to the telegraph and the mirror

The Mirror has obtained a copy of Labour's draft election manifesto. Here's what's in it

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-manifesto-leaked-jeremy-corbyn-10396298

[TightEnd]

here is the telegraph's version

Jeremy Corbyn will take Britain back to the 1970s by nationalising industries, forcing wage caps on businesses and giving huge power to the unions if he gets into power, a leaked copy of Labour's draft manifesto reveals.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/exclusive-jeremy-corbyns-left-wing-labour-manifesto-leaked/

[TightEnd]

a lot of really different stuff in it.plus some really interesting theories on why it would have leaked

Can anyone explain the chain of reasoning that would lead someone to leak an entire manifesto? Makes life harder for every part of the party

who did it?

a) avoid watering down by publishing full fat version upfront to gee up JC fans...?

or b) provoke sufficient public/media outrage to strengthen hand of moderates in watering down?

there is a clause V meeting with the unions today to agree it

[TightEnd]

The Labour manifesto on party's radical new energy policy, incl. renationalising National Grid (£38.7bn market cap)

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Labour manifesto: "We will abolish university tuition fees". Policy would cost around £11 billion, according to expert estimates.

[DaveShoelace]

Between the Dianne Abbott balls up and the Tories saying 'coalition of chaos' every 30 seconds, I don't see how JC leaked it because it plays write into the whole 'he cant even lead his own team' narrative.

[TightEnd]

Labour pledges:

- Energy, rail & Royal Mail back in public ownership
- Axe tuition fees
- Welfare cuts reversed
- Pension age stops at 66
- £6bn-a-year extra for the NHS funded by income tax hike for earners over £80k
- £8bn for social care by 2022

[TightEnd]

Notably universalist approach from Labour: no tuition fees, free school meals, state pension triple lock.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/labour-will-pledge-abolish-tuition-fees-will-policy-help-them

[TightEnd]

“It’s not about 8 June now, it’s about 23 September”: Corbynite Labour candidate via Andrew Grice

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tax-rises-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-vat-david-cameron-george-osborne-chancellor-a7728076.html

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

now this is key

Current budget deficit target gives Labour £37bn of spending headroom in 2022 compared with Aut Stmt forecasts

And current budget excludes infrastructure investment.

McDonnell has said he wants £25bn a year for that.

So deficit could be £62bn higher in 2022

[TightEnd]

the conservative response

first one to shout "Bingo!" wins

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Between the Dianne Abbott balls up and the Tories saying 'coalition of chaos' every 30 seconds, I don't see how JC leaked it because it plays write into the whole 'he cant even lead his own team' narrative.

Sophy Ridge at sky agreed

"Labour's actual manifesto is due to be published next week - any changes will be immediately picked up on. Nightmare for the party. "