The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Sheriff Fatman]

Given the local history, this is as astonishing an ad placement as if The Sun had put a full page ad on the cover of a Liverpool FC match programme.

[TightEnd]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-4)
LAB: 40% (+6)
LDEM: 7% (-)

(via IpsosMori)

Chgs. w/ mid May (pre manchester,dementia tax, debates)

[TightEnd]

notes

the two party share at 85% is a modern era record i think

skydata has 79% of leavers voting Con, 14% of remainers voting Lib Dem

tonight's may/corbyn Question time feels important

Ipsos Mori shows the (previously) key "most capable Prime Minister" ratings narrowing - but May still ahead of Corbyn by 50:35.

crucial is 18-24 vote and previous non voters, different pollsters bhave different methodologies here, could be the source of any polling miss, do the young and non voters turn out? social media will tell you they are coming like a horde of wildings in the direction of May holed up in kings landing

[TightEnd]

Given the local history, this is as astonishing an ad placement as if The Sun had put a full page ad on the cover of a Liverpool FC match programme.

i don't know if as we are told the corbyn/IRA stuff has no resonance with a big chunk of the voting public as they don't remember the troubles, or weren't born...same for falklands war...

why should the miners strike 35 years ago be any different as previous generations are overtaken by younger ones in voting percentages?

i know the hostility historically. i once stood on the away terrace at oakwell and was called a scab having never been farther than nottingham in my life apart from football!

[TightEnd]

YouGov 2017 election model results (2 June)

CON 42%, 279-346 seats
LAB 38%, 231-286 seats

For full results visit: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Click to see full-size image.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Given the local history, this is as astonishing an ad placement as if The Sun had put a full page ad on the cover of a Liverpool FC match programme.

i don't know if as we are told the corbyn/IRA stuff has no resonance with a big chunk of the voting public as they don't remember the troubles, or weren't born...same for falklands war...

why should the miners strike 35 years ago be any different as previous generations are overtaken by younger ones in voting percentages?

i know the hostility historically. i once stood on the away terrace at oakwell and was called a scab having never been farther than nottingham in my life apart from football!

Think back to the street parties after Thatcher's death a few years ago.  The resentment is still deep-rooted, but tends to only be visible when stirred up. Just like Game of Thrones, the north remembers!

I haven't lived in the area since the mid-90s, but I'm still offended to see it.  I doubt I'm an isolated example.

I suspect the Chronicle is being bombarded today with a string of outraged emails/tweets, although I don't blame them for printing the ad at all.  It's a commercial decision and the lifeblood of the paper to get ad revenue.


As for the scab chants, I hate them, but they're still a hugely divisive issue if ever discussed on the fan forums.  There's still a sizeable enough group who insist on the right to never forgive the Nottinghamshire miners (which in their eyes extends to the fans of any club from the East Midlands until the end of time!)  A few seasons ago I quietly buried my head in my hands at The City Ground as the bloke sitting in front of me high-fived his daughter (probably about 8 years old) for joining in his chant of "Scabs until you die."  I tend to pick and choose away games in the area as a result (this particular game was on the opening day of the season, which made it harder to miss).

[TightEnd]

UK Labour just 3-points shy of their historic 1997 victory and 1-point off their 2001 victory today. does that feel right? i don't know , but strange times

Back them lib dems were polling 18% though, so you can see the two party squeeze really happening, both left and right consolidating to the big two

[TightEnd]

no shit sherlock, part 32

For the first time in her leadership Maybot gets negative satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI.

Satisfied 43%
Dissatisfied 50%

[TightEnd]

key point klaxon

from the times

* Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
* People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
* There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
* So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.

non voters in 2015
young voters

and we are guessing on both

[TightEnd]

Matt Singh‏ Verified account (pollster, FT, called '15 right etc etc)

1/ A couple of observations on the latest data. The Ipsos MORI poll is horrendous for the Conservatives, both topline and supplementaries

2/ May is only 4 points ahead of Corbyn on gross satisfaction ratings, which don't look at all out of line with the topline voting intention

3/ But, most of these tightening polls are compared with a week ago. Looking at the daily YouGov popular votes, they show CON+4, +3, +4, +4

4/ That implies that a big move has happened, but there isn't much sign of it continuing this week. Labour surge out of steam? Keep watching

[kukushkin88]

Theresa will be asked questions on TV soon, on all known form that will end concerns about running out of steam.

[Cf]

Yeah I'm looking forward to QT.

Will this  be the first time in the election she's forced to speak to Corbyn?

[kukushkin88]

Yeah I'm looking forward to QT.

Will this  be the first time in the election she's forced to speak to Corbyn?

No they are being interviewed separately, after tonight they will hide her completely. Really funny that they thought they'd landslide it on the strength of the Theresa May brand, she is a laughing stock. Even I might feel slightly sorry for her if it weren't for the cowardice of ducking the leaders debate when Amber Rudd's dad had just died.

[PokerBroker]

Given the local history, this is as astonishing an ad placement as if The Sun had put a full page ad on the cover of a Liverpool FC match programme.

i don't know if as we are told the corbyn/IRA stuff has no resonance with a big chunk of the voting public as they don't remember the troubles, or weren't born...same for falklands war...

why should the miners strike 35 years ago be any different as previous generations are overtaken by younger ones in voting percentages?

i know the hostility historically. i once stood on the away terrace at oakwell and was called a scab having never been farther than nottingham in my life apart from football!

Ravenscraig voted in a Tory councillor.  I was out that neck of the woods 2 weeks ago and there were many angry people.  There were many who never bothered turning out for the council elections but they have chapped every door since. 

[TightEnd]

is she ill do we think? might explain a lot of things (and come out afterwards)

i saw notes that (even allowing for it being bookie puff) that two bets had been taken:

£200 at 100-1 Boris PM on 1st July, £1k at 25-1 Amber Rudd at 25-1. both from London accounts, they said