The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Five pollsters' predictions, all say Tory majority:

Survation 32,
YouGov 50,
Ipsos MORI 50+,
Opinium 60,
ComRes 90

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/u-k-pollsters-see-may-increasing-majority-even-as-lead-shrinks

[TightEnd]

Corbyn vows no deals, no pacts if there is a hung parliament

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/corbyn-vows-no-deals-no-pacts-if-there-is-a-hung-parliament?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[TightEnd]

Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)

Read more: http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[Sheriff Fatman]

interesting

Of the 76 seats where 18-24s outnumber over 65s, Labour already hold 57. The top two are Cambridge and Leeds NW.

Bizarrely, those are two constituencies that I've voted in previously!

Leeds NW is my current home, and it's high on the list due to it encompassing the Headingley area, which is student central for two universities in the city.  Given that, it was very surprising to see that the campaign leaflets received from the Labour challenger make no mention of Corbyn whatsoever.

The Tory effort seems to be invisible, as usual, and the nearby street placard count is probably 2/3 Lib Dem, 1/3 Labour (but I'm not in the student area, where it's probably very different).  The Labour effort seems low key to me, but this is probably because it's focused in other parts of the constituency.

I may volunteer a bit of time to campaigning for Greg Mulholland this weekend, which would be the first real opportunity I've had to do so.  Either way, it's not going to be a Tory seat on June 9th, but I'd much prefer it to still be a Lib Dem one.

[TightEnd]

blimey, look at the first paragraph...

labour's candidate in enfield north gets behind Jeremy. er......

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

interesting

Of the 76 seats where 18-24s outnumber over 65s, Labour already hold 57. The top two are Cambridge and Leeds NW.

Bizarrely, those are two constituencies that I've voted in previously!

Leeds NW is my current home, and it's high on the list due to it encompassing the Headingley area, which is student central for two universities in the city.  Given that, it was very surprising to see that the campaign leaflets received from the Labour challenger make no mention of Corbyn whatsoever.

The Tory effort seems to be invisible, as usual, and the nearby street placard count is probably 2/3 Lib Dem, 1/3 Labour (but I'm not in the student area, where it's probably very different).  The Labour effort seems low key to me, but this is probably because it's focused in other parts of the constituency.

I may volunteer a bit of time to campaigning for Greg Mulholland this weekend, which would be the first real opportunity I've had to do so.  Either way, it's not going to be a Tory seat on June 9th, but I'd much prefer it to still be a Lib Dem one.

Clegg is assumed to be in trouble in sheffield as his constituency has a high and growing student population

tuition fees/u-turn/2010 coalition still hurts LDs and the labour manifesto promised to abolish them

same applies in Leeds NW?

--

by the by i saw an article yesterday that suggested the LDs could fall to two/three seats (twickenham,orkney, westmoreland were the ones mentioned)

[Sheriff Fatman]

Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)

Read more: http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

Click to see full-size image.

Of all the forecasts I've seen, this probably matches my expectations pretty closely.

It's helpful that it has the projections included for the swing seats and from a quick scan of those I'm vaguely familiar with, the projection looks about right to me.

[DaveShoelace]

blimey, look at the first paragraph...

labour's candidate in enfield north gets behind Jeremy. er......

Click to see full-size image.

Reminds me of when I would nervously ask girls out by starting with "I know you probably dont want to, but....."

Wasn't a proven winning strategy

[Sheriff Fatman]

interesting

Of the 76 seats where 18-24s outnumber over 65s, Labour already hold 57. The top two are Cambridge and Leeds NW.

Bizarrely, those are two constituencies that I've voted in previously!

Leeds NW is my current home, and it's high on the list due to it encompassing the Headingley area, which is student central for two universities in the city.  Given that, it was very surprising to see that the campaign leaflets received from the Labour challenger make no mention of Corbyn whatsoever.

The Tory effort seems to be invisible, as usual, and the nearby street placard count is probably 2/3 Lib Dem, 1/3 Labour (but I'm not in the student area, where it's probably very different).  The Labour effort seems low key to me, but this is probably because it's focused in other parts of the constituency.

I may volunteer a bit of time to campaigning for Greg Mulholland this weekend, which would be the first real opportunity I've had to do so.  Either way, it's not going to be a Tory seat on June 9th, but I'd much prefer it to still be a Lib Dem one.

Clegg is assumed to be in trouble in sheffield as his constituency has a high and growing student population

tuition fees/u-turn/2010 coalition still hurts LDs and the labour manifesto promised to abolish them

same applies in Leeds NW?

--

by the by i saw an article yesterday that suggested the LDs could fall to two/three seats (twickenham,orkney, westmoreland were the ones mentioned)

The Britain Elects model you've just posted gives Labour a 20% change of taking Leeds NW, which feels about right at the moment (I'd have said the chance was pretty much zero at the start of the campaign).  It's also projecting Sheffield Hallam to stay Lib Dem (although less certain) and I really hope it does.  Watching Clegg on Question Time last night reminded me how good a politician he is (I'd still prefer him to be leading the Lib Dems).  He takes his own mistakes on the chin, unlike many, but will forever be tainted by the coalition/tuition fees thing.

Incidentally, the QT panel last night was pretty strong.  Clegg, Gardiner, and Robertson are at the higher end of their respective parties, in my eyes.  Davis is less toxic than many Tories, and actually engages in debate, rather than platitudes.  Suzanne Evans is less impressive, but at least benefits from not being Paul Nuttall.

[TightEnd]

Philip Gould on the impact of the polls in '92.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

important and interesting

ed conway of sky

"Britain is heading towards a fiscal precipice and none of the parties wants to talk about it. "

or a paraphrase "another typical western election where people demand services they are not prepared to pay for, fuelling debt"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/make-a-choice-more-austerity-or-new-taxes-0lb8lngxt?shareToken=9437b36d266bdfea5d7006f3a5cb6a80  

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Corbyn's tax and welfare plan almost as regressive as the Tories', because he won't unfreeze benefits (or might,think there have been four flip flops on this)

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

craig mckinlay,south thanet constituency MP beat farage 2015, charged in election expenses investigation

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

interesting

Of the 76 seats where 18-24s outnumber over 65s, Labour already hold 57. The top two are Cambridge and Leeds NW.

Bizarrely, those are two constituencies that I've voted in previously!

Leeds NW is my current home, and it's high on the list due to it encompassing the Headingley area, which is student central for two universities in the city.  Given that, it was very surprising to see that the campaign leaflets received from the Labour challenger make no mention of Corbyn whatsoever.

The Tory effort seems to be invisible, as usual, and the nearby street placard count is probably 2/3 Lib Dem, 1/3 Labour (but I'm not in the student area, where it's probably very different).  The Labour effort seems low key to me, but this is probably because it's focused in other parts of the constituency.

I may volunteer a bit of time to campaigning for Greg Mulholland this weekend, which would be the first real opportunity I've had to do so.  Either way, it's not going to be a Tory seat on June 9th, but I'd much prefer it to still be a Lib Dem one.

Clegg is assumed to be in trouble in sheffield as his constituency has a high and growing student population

tuition fees/u-turn/2010 coalition still hurts LDs and the labour manifesto promised to abolish them

same applies in Leeds NW?

--

by the by i saw an article yesterday that suggested the LDs could fall to two/three seats (twickenham,orkney, westmoreland were the ones mentioned)

The Britain Elects model you've just posted gives Labour a 20% change of taking Leeds NW, which feels about right at the moment (I'd have said the chance was pretty much zero at the start of the campaign).  It's also projecting Sheffield Hallam to stay Lib Dem (although less certain) and I really hope it does.  Watching Clegg on Question Time last night reminded me how good a politician he is (I'd still prefer him to be leading the Lib Dems).  He takes his own mistakes on the chin, unlike many, but will forever be tainted by the coalition/tuition fees thing.

Incidentally, the QT panel last night was pretty strong.  Clegg, Gardiner, and Robertson are at the higher end of their respective parties, in my eyes.  Davis is less toxic than many Tories, and actually engages in debate, rather than platitudes.  Suzanne Evans is less impressive, but at least benefits from not being Paul Nuttall.

Good post.  Agree with all of it.  It was a top end edition of QT last night.