The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

if any of you are on twitter

go to

 tony nog‏ @tony_nog Jun 1

thread starts

1 of the most bizarre aspects of the UK's current direction is that none of the #Brexit Leadership expected this hard brexit

and read the 20 posts.interesting stuff

[TightEnd]

the economist came out for the Lib dems

"This election offers a dismal choice. But the party that is closest to upholding our values is the Liberal Democrats"

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21722855-leaders-both-main-parties-have-turned-away-decades-old-vision-open-liberal?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thebritishelectionthemiddlehasfallenoutofbritishpolitics

[TightEnd]

Seats vs vote share - what success in the 2017 general election looks like for Labour

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/seats-vs-vote-share-what-does-success-2017-general-election-look-labour

[TightEnd]

Wherever we are in a week's time, this is one of the most extraordinary moves over the course of an election campaign, we have seen:

leader ratings NEVER change like this in a campaign,until now

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The Tories won't lose this election in spite of their best efforts.

so says

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/theresa-may-become-tories-gordon-brown/

couple of killer lines....

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Lord Ashcroft: estimated Con majorities of 40-78 depending on turnout scenarios

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-new-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/

[TightEnd]

honesty from the great anthony wells on his YouGov polls.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Why the Tory campaign has faltered, according to LordAshcroft's focus groups of Labour/UKIP voters in Wales

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/called-snap-election-cant-bothered-turning-final-round-focus-groups/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

the LSE chimes in

"Take it with a healthy dose of salt, but our 'polls plus fundamentals' model points to Con 43.3% vs. Lab 34.7%"

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-polls-the-fundamentals-and-ge2017/

[TightEnd]

a heavy read

what’s driving the generational turnout gap, and why it matters

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/votey-mcvoteface-whats-driving-the-generational-turnout-gap-and-why-it-matters/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Why we can't be sure that Jeremy Corbyn won't win next week (a blog that the spectator editor took absolutely no pleasure in writing it seems...)

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/cant-sure-jeremy-corbyn-wont-win/

[bookiebasher]

is she ill do we think? might explain a lot of things (and come out afterwards)

i saw notes that (even allowing for it being bookie puff) that two bets had been taken:

£200 at 100-1 Boris PM on 1st July, £1k at 25-1 Amber Rudd at 25-1. both from London accounts, they said

It certainly crossed my mind when I have seen her on the telly that she looked stressed and fatigued.

Would not surprise me at all if she were to stand down in the near future.

[Teacake]

Anybody else tilted by the game playing comments? Particularly ironic coming from Mrs. I will not hold an early election May.

She's got some brass neck I'll give her that, the Tories have been the biggest game players over the last 2/3 years re Brexit and Scottish Independence in particular. What does she think the opposition are supposed to do, bow to her every whim?

I honestly thought that she was standing down, the woman looks ghastly, she's like death warmed up. Does she ever do anything bar repeat sound bites ad nauseam rather than answer questions outside of stage managed situations like PMQs, it also looks like she's now dodging TV debates, surely she's not afraid of debating with Corbyn in an open forum, or is it more game playing?

If you're got a large lead in the polls and a quick snap election in 6 weeks I'm sure every advisor will tell her to be washing her hair that night.

She also went heavy on the blusher, I genuinely think she looks ill though.

I'm not a fan of quoting your own posts but some of us have been on to May since this the start of this shambolic campaign. The woman needs help, she is the epitomy of The Peter Principle, its remarkable that she's got this far and ironic that her own hubris will be her downfall even if, as still looks highly likely, she wins this election.

[buffyslayer1]

Not sure how true it is, but there are reports that TM has unofficially withdrawn from doing any interviews. Someone at the BBC apparently stated this and they have been told not to tweet about it.
It also appears she has decided not to do QT at the same time as Corbyn but instead will go on after him.

Regardless of your political leaning you have to regard this as an insult to the electorate. It's just not on a leader should be accountable and willing to stand up and debate their parties policies

[buffyslayer1]

Further to this, have to say this is one of the most shambolic caamigns in modern times.
All they had to do was put forward a bunch of bland but safe policies in the manifsto. Do a half decent if unspectacular campaign and they would walk it with a huge majority.