The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

Maybe it's a regional bias.  Very little reporting of it in Scotland.  Although, I'd think it quite important issue. 

[Jon MW]

Maybe it's a regional bias.  Very little reporting of it in Scotland.  Although, I'd think it quite important issue.  

When you say electoral fraud - it sounds very important. But it also brings to mind people stuffing ballot boxes full of dead peoples votes or party activists at the door with guns turning people away. From what I've read this issue could pretty much be classified as an admin error. And as Tighty suggested if you analysed every campaign as much as they analysed the Conservatives you would inevitably bring to light a lot more cases.

Don't get me wrong, they've broken the rules and should be punished - but I'd have thought a fine is the most likely, and the most proportionate, response.

[redsimon]

http://www.channel4.com/news/election-expenses-exposed

I think its more than just an admin error, though what sanctions they will incur will be interesting after the Fiona Jones case was thrown out on Appeal? Funny how your memory plays tricks I always thought she got kicked out, sad post script to it though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona_Jones

[TightEnd]

some of it is clearly more wilful than admin errors

the key to it is what you are allowed to spend per constituency, and in a number of cases clearly local spending has been pushed into national budgets

couple of the high profile cases are south thanet, where the tories spent fortunes to keep farage out and looks like they fiddled it.

and the eddie izzard battle bus, where he was shipped round lots of constituencies, yet the 10 labour associations concerned weren't declaring any costs of the day and the rules state that the cost of the bus/celb etc has to be apportioned locally

what the punishment is, not sure   

[neeko]

I don't understand the crime committed in this case - is the law trying to punish the inability of an MP to obey the power of red tape, because this law seems to be telling prospective MPs that their first job is to be able to fill out forms and know obscure election law - knowing issues etc is less important.

The law is not punishing the use of volunteers in the marginal constituencies, but that they were staying in a hotel rather than being bused home. This cannot be good law.

[WotRTheChances]

Just had a look at the odds on this, just to get a vague idea of which way this is likely to go. I wouldn't claim to have an extensive political knowledge, but I like to attempt to keep my head out of the sand to some extent. I'm surprised to see that leave is so far behind (4/1), as it seemed like a lot of things i've seen on social media, bits of news i've seen etc. would point to a fairly close contest. Has the margin been this wide throughout the build-up to the referendum?

[arbboy]

Just had a look at the odds on this, just to get a vague idea of which way this is likely to go. I wouldn't claim to have an extensive political knowledge, but I like to attempt to keep my head out of the sand to some extent. I'm surprised to see that leave is so far behind (4/1), as it seemed like a lot of things i've seen on social media, bits of news i've seen etc. would point to a fairly close contest. Has the margin been this wide throughout the build-up to the referendum?

Leave types always shout louder than the risk averse types.  Just the same in the  yes/no vote in Scotland.  The silent risk averse types will just turn up quietly and vote.  Old people don't use social media.

[kukushkin88]

Just had a look at the odds on this, just to get a vague idea of which way this is likely to go. I wouldn't claim to have an extensive political knowledge, but I like to attempt to keep my head out of the sand to some extent. I'm surprised to see that leave is so far behind (4/1), as it seemed like a lot of things i've seen on social media, bits of news i've seen etc. would point to a fairly close contest. Has the margin been this wide throughout the build-up to the referendum?

Leave types always shout louder than the risk averse types.  Just the same in the  yes/no vote in Scotland.  The silent risk averse types will just turn up quietly and vote.  Old people don't use social media.

[TightEnd]

Just 24 days left but leaked memo warns only 50% of Labour voters realise the party opposes Brexit http://gu.com/p/4jqgm/stw 

[TightEnd]

Why is there so little noise about the Tory election fraud claims?

Whether it’s media outlets’ reluctance to take up a rival’s story or Corbyn’s refusal to play hardball, very little fuss has been made about the allegations

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/01/channel-4-leads-the-way-on-tory-election-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw

[Karabiner]

Why is there so little noise about the Tory election fraud claims?

Whether it’s media outlets’ reluctance to take up a rival’s story or Corbyn’s refusal to play hardball, very little fuss has been made about the allegations

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/01/channel-4-leads-the-way-on-tory-election-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw

There's a very short time to take the claims to court should they wish to.

I think it's no more than a six or twelve-month period until the option expires.

[redsimon]

Why is there so little noise about the Tory election fraud claims?

Whether it’s media outlets’ reluctance to take up a rival’s story or Corbyn’s refusal to play hardball, very little fuss has been made about the allegations

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/01/channel-4-leads-the-way-on-tory-election-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw

There's a very short time to take the claims to court should they wish to.

I think it's no more than a six or twelve-month period until the option expires.

The Police forces investigating have got 12 month extensions to look into the claims relating to the 2015 General election.

[TightEnd]

Just had a look at the odds on this, just to get a vague idea of which way this is likely to go. I wouldn't claim to have an extensive political knowledge, but I like to attempt to keep my head out of the sand to some extent. I'm surprised to see that leave is so far behind (4/1), as it seemed like a lot of things i've seen on social media, bits of news i've seen etc. would point to a fairly close contest. Has the margin been this wide throughout the build-up to the referendum?

this takes the odds back a few months

its closed in a bit in recent weeks but has been consistently 70-80% remain according to the betting markets

[dakky]

go back a few months and it was closer.

Tighty, where did you get that graph from please?

[TightEnd]

go back a few months and it was closer.

Tighty, where did you get that graph from please?

www.politicalbetting.com