The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

Nick Cohen ‏@NickCohen4

Here's me from @spectator on the anti-fascist background to the Watson/Corbyn fight

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/09/will-labour-move-corbyn/

Nick Cohen, a balanced view of life.  Guy's a dick. 

[TightEnd]

Brexit Voter Writes To MPs To Regret EU Referendum Result;

Minister replies: ‘Bit late mate’

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-voter-regrets-eu-referendum-result-therese-coffey-says-bit-late-mate_uk_57714985e4b0232d331e7762?edition=uk

[Sheriff Fatman]

British Pound vs. US Dollar: -11% over the past 2 trading days, largest decline in history. 13-sigma event.

Click to see full-size image.

(In statistics and probability, the lower case Greek letter sigma is used to denote the standard deviation of a distribution, which as the name implies, is the accepted unit to measure how much an outcome can vary from its mean or average. A Wikipedia article lists the following table for the likelihood of sigma deviations for the standard normal distribution)

Fundamentally this analysis must be flawed when it lists 20 events since 1971 which have probabilities of 1 every 5,000 years, or less, according to the table.

[Doobs]

British Pound vs. US Dollar: -11% over the past 2 trading days, largest decline in history. 13-sigma event.

Click to see full-size image.

(In statistics and probability, the lower case Greek letter sigma is used to denote the standard deviation of a distribution, which as the name implies, is the accepted unit to measure how much an outcome can vary from its mean or average. A Wikipedia article lists the following table for the likelihood of sigma deviations for the standard normal distribution)

Fundamentally this analysis must be flawed when it lists 20 events since 1971 which have probabilities of 1 every 5,000 years, or less, according to the table.

This.  The distribution of currency movements clearly isn't a normal distribution, and never was.   I'd say that Brexit was a time to throw out the models, as it was pretty clear that something like this would happen after a leave vote. 

[Sheriff Fatman]

This.  The distribution of currency movements clearly isn't a normal distribution, and never was.   I'd say that Brexit was a time to throw out the models, as it was pretty clear that something like this would happen after a leave vote.  

Phew!  The only person I was worried about telling me I'd interpreted this completely incorrectly was Doobs.  I can rest easy for the day now

[Ledders]

https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/28/the-big-green-button-bill/

Not knowledgeable about the differing legal opinions but this does seem to make sense.

There will have to be a vote in Parliament of some sort. Then what?

[4KSuited]

I've been mulling over the issue of how the pollsters got it so badly wrong - again.

Whilst they all had %'s for Leave, Remain and Undecided, none of them showed any representation of "Not Going to Vote". Surely during the polling process they would encounter a representative proportion of these people. Using usual techniques, they'd be able to profile the "NGV" group.

Perhaps someone with better/inside knowledge of polling techniques & rationale could elaborate?

Meanwhile, voter idiocy is not limited to the Leave side: this morning on 5Live I listened whilst an 18-24 from Walsall said something like this: "I voted remain because, you know - was it the Greeks? - everyone lends a hand and helps you out when you get into trouble. I mean, when we get into that spot, who's going to chip in and help US out?"

[TightEnd]

i needed to explain what a sigma event was, whether it was appropriate or not here. At least one pensions firm thought it was....

[TightEnd]

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges

It's becoming increasingly clear that Britain is not going to leave the EU. The issue now is how is to explain that to the British people.


! surely not....

[DaveShoelace]

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges

It's becoming increasingly clear that Britain is not going to leave the EU. The issue now is how is to explain that to the British people.


! surely not....

Tighty can you make a poll ITT -- "Even though we voted for it, do you think Britain will actually leave the EU?"

[TightEnd]

I've been mulling over the issue of how the pollsters got it so badly wrong - again.

Whilst they all had %'s for Leave, Remain and Undecided, none of them showed any representation of "Not Going to Vote". Surely during the polling process they would encounter a representative proportion of these people. Using usual techniques, they'd be able to profile the "NGV" group.

Perhaps someone with better/inside knowledge of polling techniques & rationale could elaborate?

Meanwhile, voter idiocy is not limited to the Leave side: this morning on 5Live I listened whilst an 18-24 from Walsall said something like this: "I voted remain because, you know - was it the Greeks? - everyone lends a hand and helps you out when you get into trouble. I mean, when we get into that spot, who's going to chip in and help US out?"

i think they all had not going to vote representation, it ran at 4-5% through the polling. very understated particularly among younger people...but its typically much tougher to poll younger people as a) they are not politically engaged as much b) no landlines for telephone polling

[TightEnd]

anyone watching Farage v Juncker in the European parliament on the news channels?

whatever your personal opinion, its remarkable stuff. absolutely toxic

[TightEnd]

Harry Wilson ‏@harrynwilson

Sobering numbers from Lord Price, minister trade + investment. EU has 550 trade negotiators. The US 500. UK about 12-20. #TimesCEOsummit

Ed Conway
‏@EdConwaySky

Rupert Murdoch: if [Boris] backtracks on serious things there’ll be another bloody revolt #TimesCeoSummit

[TightEnd]

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges

It's becoming increasingly clear that Britain is not going to leave the EU. The issue now is how is to explain that to the British people.


! surely not....

Tighty can you make a poll ITT -- "Even though we voted for it, do you think Britain will actually leave the EU?"

would probably leave this thread alone

can do it on another thread though by all means.

 

[TightEnd]

he doesn't give a fuck, got some front (and speaks for a lot of people, too)