The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

if you are waiting for a £ bounce...

Deutsche bank has just year end forecasted $1.15/£ and that "may understate the scale of the fall required"



Andrea Leadsom also just said: "Forecasts for a disaster for sterling have not been proven correct." :-)

i need to switch off skynews, its been 15 days now and it just gets more bonkers

[AndrewT]

M&S announced their results today. One interesting snippet was that their overseas sales were up 6% but nearly all the rise was caused by the fall in Sterling, at the pre-referendum exchange rate it would only have been a 1% rise.

[DaveShoelace]

i need to switch off skynews, its been 15 days now and it just gets more bonkers

This

On the plus side, we are not all eating each other yet

[TightEnd]

"2016 was an odd year, looking back." - extract from Come What May: The Memoirs of a Prime Minister (published 2029)

[DaveShoelace]

GG to the writers of Charlie Brooker's 2016 Wipe trying to cram all this shit into an hour, we haven't even had the US election or the Olympics yet.

[nirvana]

Andrea Leadsom giving a campaign speech at the moment and it's some serious weakass shit.

Her supporters are breaking out into 'spontaneous' applause literally (and I mean that in its actual, correct sense) at the end of every single bland, content-free sentence that falls out of her mouth.

So odd her transformation into nothingness. Saw her interviewed on Marr I think about 5 weeks out from the referendum..very few clichés and very clear. First debate she did quite well..second debate she sunk into just saying 'take back control' American style..Obv can't snap out of soundbite and bollox mode

[4KSuited]

Re: Blair post Chilcot

The thing I just cannot fathom is how Blair refuses to admit that he would have done things differently. Not only did he ignore a lot of people (I remember this distinctly at the time) who warned of a the fragile, combustible political/ethnic makeup of the region, he ploughed in behind Bush.

Maybe he thinks that admitting he would do it differently is an admission of guilt for war-crimes. After all, as a direct result of his decision, 170 people have lost their lives; 170+ families continue to suffer the consequences; thousands of people have suffered physical and/or mental life changing injuries. Then, where do you start with the people of Iraq, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Turkey and all the other countries affected by the presence and terror of Al Qaeda and Daesh? There is absolutely no doubt that nobody (other than Blair himself, apparently) would refuse an opportunity to change the decision to invade with the Americans. Maybe we couldn't have stopped them from acting alone, but as British citizens, we could feel a lot more proud of our Government of the time.

Tellingly, he overestimated the influence he might have on American policy, even though he didn't receive a single reply to any of the dozen or so private communications that he sent. Jesus H Christ. Really?

That's a level of misjudgment being reflected again by his refusal to accept that he got it badly wrong. Aha!! I've squared the circle....

[jakally]

Andrea Leadsom giving a campaign speech at the moment and it's some serious weakass shit.

Her supporters are breaking out into 'spontaneous' applause literally (and I mean that in its actual, correct sense) at the end of every single bland, content-free sentence that falls out of her mouth.

So odd her transformation into nothingness. Saw her interviewed on Marr I think about 5 weeks out from the referendum..very few clichés and very clear. First debate she did quite well..second debate she sunk into just saying 'take back control' American style..Obv can't snap out of soundbite and bollox mode

Just watched the latest Marr interview, and her campaign speech. Quite simply she does not come across as a leader.
Not very confident or commanding, too many smiles, and instantly defensive when faced with a tough question. Might not be a massive issue with the core Tory vote, but can't see it being positive with the rest of the electorate.

[AndrewT]

Re: Blair post Chilcot

The thing I just cannot fathom is how Blair refuses to admit that he would have done things differently. Not only did he ignore a lot of people (I remember this distinctly at the time) who warned of a the fragile, combustible political/ethnic makeup of the region, he ploughed in behind Bush.

Maybe he thinks that admitting he would do it differently is an admission of guilt for war-crimes. After all, as a direct result of his decision, 170 people have lost their lives; 170+ families continue to suffer the consequences; thousands of people have suffered physical and/or mental life changing injuries. Then, where do you start with the people of Iraq, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Turkey and all the other countries affected by the presence and terror of Al Qaeda and Daesh? There is absolutely no doubt that nobody (other than Blair himself, apparently) would refuse an opportunity to change the decision to invade with the Americans. Maybe we couldn't have stopped them from acting alone, but as British citizens, we could feel a lot more proud of our Government of the time.

Tellingly, he overestimated the influence he might have on American policy, even though he didn't receive a single reply to any of the dozen or so private communications that he sent. Jesus H Christ. Really?

That's a level of misjudgment being reflected again by his refusal to accept that he got it badly wrong. Aha!! I've squared the circle....

Blair is a man of faith (became very religious in office but Alastair Campbell told him to keep it under wraps and Blair converted to Catholicism once he left office) and adult religious converts tend to be very strident in their beliefs and also in not having self-doubt.

I believe Blair when he says that he wouldn't have done things differently - admitting he's wrong about this might lead to wondering what else he's been wrong about, and when you've decided to find religion as an adult there's plenty of scope to find inconsistencies in your thinking - so he's learnt to not question himself, squeeze any doubt away inside his brain so deeply it doesn't come out.

[Cf]

I'm going to Vegas in October.

What do people reckon I should do with buying $? Now, or wait?

[4KSuited]

I'm going to Vegas in October.

What do people reckon I should do with buying $? Now, or wait?

Personally I'd wait. The downward pressure is all about the uncertainty. On balance, there should be less uncertainty by end of September.

[PokerBroker]

WE need a general election just to liven things up!

[StuartHopkin]

I'm going to Vegas in October.

What do people reckon I should do with buying $? Now, or wait?

Personally I'd wait. The downward pressure is all about the uncertainty. On balance, there should be less uncertainty by end of September.

Agreed, but think you need to pick your moment, any so called certainty might send the rate up but I think the overall movement to the end of the year is going to be down based on the majority of forecasts.

Dont worry about it Cf if your blackjack theory is as optimal is it used to be the exchange rate is going to mean your making even more monies!

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

bit wary of putting more economics up, we know its going to be bad for a while and we know its not why people voted leave

anyway

Leading economist says new Lloyds business barometer suggests Q3 GDP on course to be -0.5%

the red line leads the blue....

Click to see full-size image.