The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

May as well get all the latest economic news on here........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866

I'm sure the doom and gloom merchants will be all over it like a rash when/if the situation worsens.

You do realise we are still in the EU?

What I was clumsily trying to demonstrate is that the experts/economists got their forecasts about the effects in immediate aftermath of the brexit vote on the economy totally wrong.

They forecast negative growth for Q3 and us heading rapidly into recession.

Pretty sure Tighty posted some links in last 6 months, I can look.

We've understandably seen a lot of forecasts about the economy on here, I think its useful to post information on actual performance (no one mentioned the actual trade figures for example on here) for some balance.

[doubleup]

May as well get all the latest economic news on here........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866

I'm sure the doom and gloom merchants will be all over it like a rash when/if the situation worsens.

You do realise we are still in the EU?

What I was clumsily trying to demonstrate is that the experts/economists got their forecasts about the effects in immediate aftermath of the brexit vote on the economy totally wrong.

They forecast negative growth for Q3 and us heading rapidly into recession.

Pretty sure Tighty posted some links in last 6 months, I can look.

We've understandably seen a lot of forecasts about the economy on here, I think its useful to post information on actual performance (no one mentioned the actual trade figures for example on here) for some balance.

Cameron said that he would go to Brussels and trigger Art. 50 the day after a Leave vote.  As we are nearly 3 months on and the govt has no idea what it wants, when it wants it, who it wants it with and if there is any chance that it will get it, you don't need to be a genius to envisage the chaos that would have resulted in Cameron actually triggering Art 50 the day after, with the two year clock ticking down and leading to ejection from the EU without any agreement.

[RickBFA]

bit wary of putting more economics up, we know its going to be bad for a while and we know its not why people voted leave

anyway

Leading economist says new Lloyds business barometer suggests Q3 GDP on course to be -0.5%

the red line leads the blue....

Click to see full-size image.

This is one example of the forecasts I am talking about, published a couple of weeks after Brexit vote when it was clear we were not triggering Article 50 any time in the near future.

[DungBeetle]

May as well get all the latest economic news on here........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866

I'm sure the doom and gloom merchants will be all over it like a rash when/if the situation worsens.

You do realise we are still in the EU?

What I was clumsily trying to demonstrate is that the experts/economists got their forecasts about the effects in immediate aftermath of the brexit vote on the economy totally wrong.

They forecast negative growth for Q3 and us heading rapidly into recession.

Pretty sure Tighty posted some links in last 6 months, I can look.

We've understandably seen a lot of forecasts about the economy on here, I think its useful to post information on actual performance (no one mentioned the actual trade figures for example on here) for some balance.

Cameron said that he would go to Brussels and trigger Art. 50 the day after a Leave vote.  As we are nearly 3 months on and the govt has no idea what it wants, when it wants it, who it wants it with and if there is any chance that it will get it, you don't need to be a genius to envisage the chaos that would have resulted in Cameron actually triggering Art 50 the day after, with the two year clock ticking down and leading to ejection from the EU without any agreement.

Fair point. But there was a fair amount of "I told you so" everywhere in the week after the vote as the markets reacted. (Not aimed at this forum).  When the economy does relatively okay a few months after the same people can't complain if it is thrown back at them.

[TightEnd]

David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

Effect of new boundaries according to anthony wells

Con -10, Lab -28, Lib Dem -4; Con maj 40 instead of 12

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9759

[TightEnd]

Theresa May could win a 100-seat majority in 2020 - polling analysis - http://bit.ly/2cUVZJg

[TightEnd]

initial analysis of the proposed boundaries, and notional seats from GE 2015 votes

http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/09/first-look-at-the-boundary-review.html/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

politicians have not yet addressed the tide of racism that Brexit empowered

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/09/killing-polish-man-shook-town-harlow-could-more-trouble-be-coming

[Doobs]

May as well get all the latest economic news on here........

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866

I'm sure the doom and gloom merchants will be all over it like a rash when/if the situation worsens.

You do realise we are still in the EU?

What I was clumsily trying to demonstrate is that the experts/economists got their forecasts about the effects in immediate aftermath of the brexit vote on the economy totally wrong.

They forecast negative growth for Q3 and us heading rapidly into recession.

Pretty sure Tighty posted some links in last 6 months, I can look.

We've understandably seen a lot of forecasts about the economy on here, I think its useful to post information on actual performance (no one mentioned the actual trade figures for example on here) for some balance.

You haven't demonstrated that though.  A decrease in trade gap would be a very likely result of a 10% drop in currency.  And a 10% drop in currency was a pretty likely result. I am fairly sure it was the number I used when Dave Shoelace(?) asked about how his income would be affected by brexit.  So I don't think you have demonstrated anything that was unexpected.

The third quarter growth figures aren't out yet, and they will be interesting.  Whilst "economists" aren't a uniform clump that can easily be covered by "they", it is safe to say most forecast a slowdown of various sizes. 

[TightEnd]

What the political map of the UK looks like if boundary changes go through. (All estimates.)

http://election-data.co.uk/boundary-commission-proposals

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

I was just reading the criticism of Cameron on Libya, where it was suggested that he could of used Tony Blair. 

I came across this which I must have missed at the time.  It turns out he did use Tony Blair, well he didn't stop him speaking to Gaddafi anyway. 

It is a very interesting transcript, and well worth reading the whole thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/07/gaddafi-warned-blair-of-threat-from-opening-door-to-al-qaida

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/foreign-affairs/09TBandGaddafiCallTranscript-1115-1145.pdf

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/foreign-affairs/10TBandGaddafiCallTranscript-1535-1600.pdf





 

[Doobs]

I didn't see it, but it seems that Jeremy Corbyn had a good PMQ's today.

So says the "anti-Corbyn" BBC and the "anti-Corbyn" Laura Kuenssberg

Just as Labour was self destructing, it seems Teressa May has come up with a policy that gets tham all on one side and splits her own party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-37359766

[DaveShoelace]

I didn't see it, but it seems that Jeremy Corbyn had a good PMQ's today.

So says the "anti-Corbyn" BBC and the "anti-Corbyn" Laura Kuenssberg

Just as Labour was self destructing, it seems Teressa May has come up with a policy that gets tham all on one side and splits her own party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-37359766

He did well actually, he responded to her answers before asking the next question which he has been pretty poor at before, he also kept pointing out when she ducked answering a previous question which, again, he has been really bad at in the past.

May still managed to get a memorable little jibe in at him after every question so no doubt everyone who is partisan left thinking their horse had won.

[DaveShoelace]

What's everyone think of the grammar school thing btw? Can't make my mind up on that one.