The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

'Heath with a laptop' says one Tory MP of Hammond's plans to borrow more to invest in technology and try and boost productivity

[TightEnd]

So, Mr Woodsey, borrowing increase by £122bn, growth slowed by the equivalent of £40bn (about 2.5% off GDP in the forecasting period) according to the OBR forecasts on the assumptions above.

Is it still "project fear" to point out Brexit is catastrophic? or the view of the OBR/Experts doesn't matter?

[TightEnd]

Inflation forecasting

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

David Gauke, chief secretary to the treasury, says govt's scrapped surplus target would've been met without Brexit.

(fantastic excuse in the run up to the next election though, it has to be said)

[DungBeetle]

So, Mr Woodsey, borrowing increase by £122bn, growth slowed by the equivalent of £40bn (about 2.5% off GDP in the forecasting period) according to the OBR forecasts on the assumptions above.

Is it still "project fear" to point out Brexit is catastrophic? or the view of the OBR/Experts doesn't matter?

Isn't Brexit always going to be catastrophic while new trade deals are negotiated?  Surely it's a 30/40 year game being played out here and the question is where we end up in the long term?  Not that many Brexit fans will think about it like this but essentially that is what we are looking at in my mind.

[TightEnd]

So, Mr Woodsey, borrowing increase by £122bn, growth slowed by the equivalent of £40bn (about 2.5% off GDP in the forecasting period) according to the OBR forecasts on the assumptions above.

Is it still "project fear" to point out Brexit is catastrophic? or the view of the OBR/Experts doesn't matter?

Isn't Brexit always going to be catastrophic while new trade deals are negotiated?  Surely it's a 30/40 year game being played out here and the question is where we end up in the long term?  Not that many Brexit fans will think about it like this but essentially that is what we are looking at in my mind.

so, few of those who voted to leave will be around to see these imagined and currently unforecastable gains?

 

[TightEnd]

people are wading through the OBRreport

i will conclude today with the key tables

Leave vote created a £58.7bn hit to public finances (including £15.2bn lost cos fewer migrants from 2017)

Click to see full-size image.

surplus target would have been hit in 19-20. circled in red

Click to see full-size image.

and more analysis

The OBR's predictions for Britain after Brexit: a decade of slowed export growth & you'll be £1000 poorer:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/11/cost-brexit-decade-slower-export-growth-and-youll-be-1000-worse-year

[Marky147]

In before 'My pension is doing alright, what are they on about?'

[DungBeetle]

Is this £58 billion over 5 years?  Between 2010 and 2015 George Osbourne overshot his projected borrowing by  £171 billion by way of comparison  And he managed that all on his own

[TightEnd]

Is this £58 billion over 5 years?  Between 2010 and 2015 George Osbourne overshot his projected borrowing by  £171 billion by way of comparison  And he managed that all on his own

source?

know he missed but haven't seen the £171bn figure before

[DungBeetle]

Telegraph 21st April this year (can't post link from here). It is 5 year look back on his 2010 projections.

[Woodsey]

So, Mr Woodsey, borrowing increase by £122bn, growth slowed by the equivalent of £40bn (about 2.5% off GDP in the forecasting period) according to the OBR forecasts on the assumptions above.

Is it still "project fear" to point out Brexit is catastrophic? or the view of the OBR/Experts doesn't matter?

Catastrophic? That's a bit over dramatic, as dung beetle said we all know there will be a bit of a dip for a few years, don't think it will be anywhere near as long as he suggests through. The chancellor suggests debt will peak in 2017/18 and then start to fall, that doesn't sound too doom and gloom to me...

All that aside I still don't really accept they can make accurate predictions until they know what the brexit deal will be.

[Woodsey]

In before 'My pension is doing alright, what are they on about?'

Lumping another £4K in next week so really can't complain, I know others like to though.... 

[doubleup]

The chancellor suggests debt will peak in 2017/18 and then start to fall.

As a % of GDP not in £ terms.


Also note that the chancellor has neatly moved the budget to November, so if there are any unfortunate eventualities after Art. 50 is triggered they can be accommodated in the def planned and not in any way emergency November budget.

[Woodsey]

The chancellor suggests debt will peak in 2017/18 and then start to fall.

As a % of GDP not in £ terms.


Also note that the chancellor has neatly moved the budget to November, so if there are any unfortunate eventualities after Art. 50 is triggered they can be accommodated in the def planned and not in any way emergency November budget.

Both

'Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts borrowing of £68.2bn this year, then £59bn in 2017-18, £46.5bn in 2018-19, £21.9bn in 2019-20 and £20.7bn in 2020-21'

Actually those look wrong? Seem very low numbers....