The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-second-scottish-independence-referendum-is-never-going-to-happen-a7636691.html

[TightEnd]

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech to SNP conference suggests she’s playing a long game, says Alex Massie:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/nicola-sturgeons-speech-snp-conference-suggests-shes-playing-long-game/

[TightEnd]

Gordon Brown contrasts "third option" with "absolutism of the SNP and the do-nothing-ism of the Tories". http://bit.ly/2nOXcGu

[TightEnd]

'No one is talking about it': has Sturgeon misjudged mood for independence?

(had to look up where clackmannanshire was....)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/no-one-is-talking-about-it-has-sturgeon-misjudged-mood-for-independence?CMP=twt_gu

[nirvana]

'No one is talking about it': has Sturgeon misjudged mood for independence?

(had to look up where clackmannanshire was....)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/no-one-is-talking-about-it-has-sturgeon-misjudged-mood-for-independence?CMP=twt_gu

I was thinking along similar lines watching Blair this morning. To paraphrase he said something along the lines of this on a second Brexit reffa

"Let's be clear, will of the people blah unless MPs get a sense from their constituencies that the people have changed their mind".

This is ludicrous, no-one cares very much, very few are remotely engaged in the process. If you carried out a top 3 issues thing in the UK, I'd doubt Brexit would feature for the majority of people.

MPs could come up with a construct that made them believe the people have changed their minds - in reality this would mean them forming an opinion based on a combination of the views of the handful of people they actually engage with and where their personal self interest lay.

It would take a massive event, extrinsic to the Brexit process, to jolt the gen pop into some kind of ground swell against the idea. A centrist think tank is probably not the bombshell to do that.

[TightEnd]

Panelbase/S Times (Scotland Westminster):

SNP 47 (=)
CON 28 (+1)
LAB 14 (-1)
LD 4 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)
N=1,008

Highest CON number ever recorded in scotland by that pollster and leads to 5 MPs if a uniform swing

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Independence could set Scotland's economy back 10 years, warns top SNP adviser http://bit.ly/2nBr1Kh

[TightEnd]

Diane Abbott: Labour will win an election whenever Theresa May calls one

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-interview-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-a7635706.html

(If polls are as wrong (in the opposite direction) as 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together* Labour still don't win)

[TightEnd]

Tom Watson says Jeremy Corbyn ally 'must be stopped from destroying Labour' http://bit.ly/2mY75lY

[The Camel]

A question I've been meaning to ask for ages..

Why did Scotland vote No in indyref, but elect virtually all SNP candidates at the general election?

[TightEnd]

A question I've been meaning to ask for ages..

Why did Scotland vote No in indyref, but elect virtually all SNP candidates at the general election?

as well as the natural SNP vote the collapse of the labour vote transferred across, whether the labour voter was unionist or not. that vote wasn't going right of centre (though polling suggests that some unionist vote has gone Lab to Con in 2016-2017)

Doesn't necessarily mean that all the Westminster 2015 SNP vote would vote for independence

the first past the post constituency system magnified that into seat gains

so 48-52 Yes-No in indyref could equal 57 seats to SNP under those unique circumstances. 

[DungBeetle]

Diane Abbott: Labour will win an election whenever Theresa May calls one

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-interview-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-a7635706.html

(If polls are as wrong (in the opposite direction) as 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together* Labour still don't win)

I'm anything but a fan of Abbott but the Independant headline doesn't really match Abbott's comments which were "we are ready for an election and believe we can win".  She can't really say anything else to be fair.

[TightEnd]

Article 50 will be triggered on 29 March. This is what happens next

://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/03/after-article-50-triggered-what-happens-next

[TightEnd]

 Secret tape reveals Momentum plot to seize control of Labour

Exclusive: Grassroots group hopes to harness power of UK’s largest union, Unite, and secure succession after Jeremy Corbyn


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/secret-tape-reveals-momentum-plot-to-link-with-unite-seize-control-of-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[TightEnd]

polling average update: Conservatives lead Labour by 15pts, at 41.9 to 27.0. 1pt gap between UKIP (11.2) and Lib Dems (10.1).

Click to see full-size image.