The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

this was a stunner mid afternoon yesterday

you gov,post manifestos

New Welsh poll

Lab: 44% (+9)
Con: 34% (-7)
Plaid: 9% (-2)
Lib Dems 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)

[TightEnd]

Labour are polling at almost the 2005 election % that got them a majority. Still screwed (people think) because of the massive Ukip -> Tory swing

next set of polling going to be very interesting


Note May got kebabbed by Brillo last night, Corbyn is due to face him the friday of a bank holiday weekend, far fewer people likely to be watching anyway and likely to be a much more different tone after overnight events

[TightEnd]

cliffs:

Andrew Neil: you're rubbish.
Theresa May: Labour would be worse.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/theresa-mays-nightmare-day-u-turn-followed-difficult-interview-yet/

[TightEnd]

couple of interesting extracts from the FT

[TightEnd]

U-turns are seen as a Bad Thing. But there's not that much evidence to support that supposition,

IE voters care less than political journalists

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/u-turns-matter-less-journalists-think-especially-voters-like-result/

[TightEnd]

What Conservative manifesto says about Dilnot plan for a social care costs cap, now May's policy

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/manifesto2017/Manifesto2017.pdf

[TightEnd]

in parallel with all this yesterday a lot of the press was going on Corbyn/IRA including one interview with an IRA man which was controversial.

going to stop short of posting any of that today.

[neeko]

What Conservative manifesto says about Dilnot plan for a social care costs cap, now May's policy

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/manifesto2017/Manifesto2017.pdf

How does labour respond? It can't campaign for a small group of millionaires who will benefit from this change.

I guess it should use the 'tories hurt pensioners' line, and hope that pulls a lot of ex UKIP voters back to labour.

[AndrewT]

With campaigning suspended, and the news agenda moving on once it resumes, last night's bombing will surely impact upon the general election.

Theresa May's worst day by far (U-turn, rabbit in the headlights press conference, then roasted for 30 mins at gas mark 8 at Chez Brillo) will fade into the background and she'll get a couple of days of looking prime-ministerial again.

The one cloud for her might be that this might (and only might) see a bit of a flow of voters back to UKIP from the Tories, which could turn a few marginals.

[DaveShoelace]

With campaigning suspended, and the news agenda moving on once it resumes, last night's bombing will surely impact upon the general election.

Theresa May's worst day by far (U-turn, rabbit in the headlights press conference, then roasted for 30 mins at gas mark 8 at Chez Brillo) will fade into the background and she'll get a couple of days of looking prime-ministerial again.

The one cloud for her might be that this might (and only might) see a bit of a flow of voters back to UKIP from the Tories, which could turn a few marginals.

I think whatever gains Labour made will be undone by this. Corbyn is already seen as soft on terrorism at best and a sympathiser at worst. The fact that children were targeted will, IMO, see some parents who would have voted Labour having a last minute change of heart. But you are probably right on the UKIP thing too.

Could get quite ugly for the rest of the campaign, as many of us were already expecting the Tories to ramp up the 'friends with Hamas/IRA' angle towards the end of the month.

[PokerBroker]

With campaigning suspended, and the news agenda moving on once it resumes, last night's bombing will surely impact upon the general election.

Theresa May's worst day by far (U-turn, rabbit in the headlights press conference, then roasted for 30 mins at gas mark 8 at Chez Brillo) will fade into the background and she'll get a couple of days of looking prime-ministerial again.

The one cloud for her might be that this might (and only might) see a bit of a flow of voters back to UKIP from the Tories, which could turn a few marginals.

I think whatever gains Labour made will be undone by this. Corbyn is already seen as soft on terrorism at best and a sympathiser at worst. The fact that children were targeted will, IMO, see some parents who would have voted Labour having a last minute change of heart. But you are probably right on the UKIP thing too.

Could get quite ugly for the rest of the campaign, as many of us were already expecting the Tories to ramp up the 'friends with Hamas/IRA' angle towards the end of the month.

And isn't that part of the problem? 

Being hard on terrorism clearly isn't working it isn't a detterent. 

Why not try a different path, even if we accept that Corbyn was asupporter of the RA he alongside others were  in part responsible for bringing key players to the table. 

The state cn play down his involvement all they like, but SF politicians and supporters of a United Ireland on these shores were making hay with members of the Labour Party in the  UK, Democrats in America and othhers who were seen as progressive. 

I don't see Mrs May as being hard on terror or strong and stable.  Being prepared to detonate a bomb on another country for the sake of showing you are a strong leader isn't themark of a leader in my view. 

I won'tote Labour, but I really am tired of all the mud slinging in politics.  More alarmingly, I am concerned about how the media control the agenda.

[The Camel]

With campaigning suspended, and the news agenda moving on once it resumes, last night's bombing will surely impact upon the general election.

Theresa May's worst day by far (U-turn, rabbit in the headlights press conference, then roasted for 30 mins at gas mark 8 at Chez Brillo) will fade into the background and she'll get a couple of days of looking prime-ministerial again.

The one cloud for her might be that this might (and only might) see a bit of a flow of voters back to UKIP from the Tories, which could turn a few marginals.

I think whatever gains Labour made will be undone by this. Corbyn is already seen as soft on terrorism at best and a sympathiser at worst. The fact that children were targeted will, IMO, see some parents who would have voted Labour having a last minute change of heart. But you are probably right on the UKIP thing too.

Could get quite ugly for the rest of the campaign, as many of us were already expecting the Tories to ramp up the 'friends with Hamas/IRA' angle towards the end of the month.

And isn't that part of the problem? 

Being hard on terrorism clearly isn't working it isn't a detterent. 

Why not try a different path, even if we accept that Corbyn was asupporter of the RA he alongside others were  in part responsible for bringing key players to the table. 

The state cn play down his involvement all they like, but SF politicians and supporters of a United Ireland on these shores were making hay with members of the Labour Party in the  UK, Democrats in America and othhers who were seen as progressive. 

I don't see Mrs May as being hard on terror or strong and stable.  Being prepared to detonate a bomb on another country for the sake of showing you are a strong leader isn't themark of a leader in my view. 

I won'tote Labour, but I really am tired of all the mud slinging in politics.  More alarmingly, I am concerned about how the media control the agenda.

I think we've just got to accept that terrorism is part and parcel of living in the UK in the 21st century.

There is no solution as far as I can see.

[buffyslayer1]

There are only two instances in modern history where the 'fight' against terrorism has been 'won'. In Northan Ireland and in the Spanish Basque region, neither were overcome by war but by bringing them to the negotiating table.
Granted this form of terror is somewhat different and maybe can't be solved in the same manner but, its food for thought. Because what the west has been doing for the last 10 years clearly isn't working, perhaps we should try something different. So agree with some of the sentiments here.

[exstream]

ban religion and section anyone that 'believes'

[PokerBroker]

ban religion and section anyone that 'believes'

+1