The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

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[TightEnd]

very very interesting today

PM campaigning in Tory defence seat of Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: went Con in 2010, saw small swing to Lab in 2015. Maj 523.

earlier in Bath, small tory majority

threee weeks ago was in seats he could only win with a big swing, now she is in key defence territory.

[TightEnd]

Sir David Butler‏ @SirDavidButler (91year old inventor of the swingometer and father of the psephology industry)

Polls have a mixed record but they have never moved or disagreed so much as now. There’s a week to go but someone will be embarrassed.


(fun election huh? never a dull moment)

[tikay]

Sir David Butler‏ @SirDavidButler (91year old inventor of the swingometer and father of the psephology industry)

Polls have a mixed record but they have never moved or disagreed so much as now. There’s a week to go but someone will be embarrassed.


(fun election huh? never a dull moment)

When are you off on holiday, Rich?

This thread will be much the poorer without your constant prompting & Dimbelby-style diplomacy. In fact you even look like Dimbleby.

[TightEnd]

Sir David Butler‏ @SirDavidButler (91year old inventor of the swingometer and father of the psephology industry)

Polls have a mixed record but they have never moved or disagreed so much as now. There’s a week to go but someone will be embarrassed.


(fun election huh? never a dull moment)

When are you off on holiday, Rich?

This thread will be much the poorer without your constant prompting & Dimbelby-style diplomacy. In fact you even look like Dimbleby.

I am off on election day itself. Cheers Theresa, highlight of my five years and you set it for that day.

going to be 7 hours behind so should be able to watch election night mid afternoon onwards when i land (this will be deleted later as my life might not be worth living if seen)

[AndrewT]

Could well be a bit of scope for a bet if this Labour surge in the polls continue because I'm sure it's nothing more than Scotch mist and Theresa May will wafflecrush come election day.

Time to revisit this as the Corbyn surge has strengthened. I still think that there are fundamental mathematical reasons why the Tories are stronger than they appear (kids not turning out to vote, UKIP vote collapse more skewed towards marginals, Corbyn fanboys more likely to live in safer Labour seats) so I've had a punt on the Tories getting 401-425 seats at 5/1, which was 9/4 ten days ago.

I'll probably look at some other blue bets tomorrow as it's difficult to see how things will look better for May tomorrow morning after ducking tonight's debate.

[TightEnd]

Could well be a bit of scope for a bet if this Labour surge in the polls continue because I'm sure it's nothing more than Scotch mist and Theresa May will wafflecrush come election day.

Time to revisit this as the Corbyn surge has strengthened. I still think that there are fundamental mathematical reasons why the Tories are stronger than they appear (kids not turning out to vote, UKIP vote collapse more skewed towards marginals, Corbyn fanboys more likely to live in safer Labour seats) so I've had a punt on the Tories getting 401-425 seats at 5/1, which was 9/4 ten days ago.

I'll probably look at some other blue bets tomorrow as it's difficult to see how things will look better for May tomorrow morning after ducking tonight's debate.

Labour strategists (i know two. well, acquainted with. know a bit) are worried that they are piling up votes in the wrong areas eg labour metropolitian safe seats. the situation in marginals is tougher, particular oop north where corbyn goes down like insert appropriate metaphor.or did

and watch Farron got for Corbyn tonight over Brexit. debate is in Cambridge and some polls have labour taking it off Lib Dems and he will want to go for the Labour vote

[AndrewT]

Could well be a bit of scope for a bet if this Labour surge in the polls continue because I'm sure it's nothing more than Scotch mist and Theresa May will wafflecrush come election day.

Time to revisit this as the Corbyn surge has strengthened. I still think that there are fundamental mathematical reasons why the Tories are stronger than they appear (kids not turning out to vote, UKIP vote collapse more skewed towards marginals, Corbyn fanboys more likely to live in safer Labour seats) so I've had a punt on the Tories getting 401-425 seats at 5/1, which was 9/4 ten days ago.

I'll probably look at some other blue bets tomorrow as it's difficult to see how things will look better for May tomorrow morning after ducking tonight's debate.

Labour strategists (i know two. well, acquainted with. know a bit) are worried that they are piling up votes in the wrong areas eg labour metropolitian safe seats. the situation in marginals is tougher, particular oop north where corbyn goes down like insert appropriate metaphor.or did

and watch Farron got for Corbyn tonight over Brexit. debate is in Cambridge and some polls have labour taking it off Lib Dems and he will want to go for the Labour vote

On the Guardian podcast today they were saying how Rupa Huq in Ealing (majority of 150) is feeling quite confident of holding on (as tipped up earlier) whereas there was a seat in the Midlands with an 8,000 Labour majority where the MP is bricking it.

[ripple11]

Could well be a bit of scope for a bet if this Labour surge in the polls continue because I'm sure it's nothing more than Scotch mist and Theresa May will wafflecrush come election day.

Time to revisit this as the Corbyn surge has strengthened. I still think that there are fundamental mathematical reasons why the Tories are stronger than they appear (kids not turning out to vote, UKIP vote collapse more skewed towards marginals, Corbyn fanboys more likely to live in safer Labour seats) so I've had a punt on the Tories getting 401-425 seats at 5/1, which was 9/4 ten days ago.

I'll probably look at some other blue bets tomorrow as it's difficult to see how things will look better for May tomorrow morning after ducking tonight's debate.

Debate on Sky just now between You Gov (no majority claim) and Michael Moszynski of London Advertising. (ex tory campaign manager)

Michael claiming You Gov is wrong....and his track record is he got these right:


“Vote Leave will get 52-53%”: result 51.9%

“Conservatives will win General election with a single seat majority”: Conservatives won by six seats

“Scottish Yes Vote will get less than 45%”: result 44.7%

fwiw he is currently forecasting 103 to 108 tory majority.


ps For balance he got the US election wrong

[The Camel]

Big market move for No Overall Majority gathering pace. Just matched at 6.8, down from a peak of 36.

Wouldn't be surprised if the market move was fuelled by people hedging stock or currency positions.

[ripple11]

Interesting to see how Amber Rudd does later.

Judging her since becoming Home Sec,feels like a decent bet to be the next Tory leader to me....which might be soon if the Jezza bandwagon continues.

10/1 available atm....not sure if the boat has sailed and she has been longer.

[MintTrav]

Interesting to see how Amber Rudd does later.

Judging her since becoming Home Sec,feels like a decent bet to be the next Tory leader to me....which might be soon if the Jezza bandwagon continues.

10/1 available atm....not sure if the boat has sailed and she has been longer.

She thinks she's there already - "Have you not read my manifesto?".

[PokerBroker]

Rudd beaten like a pulp by Corbyn and Lucas.

The questions on foreign policy had her stumbling about in the dark.

Leeanne Wood has had Nuttal by the balls all night.

Robertson performed solidly if not spectacularly.

Wee Tim, is just a noise in the corner.  Can't take anything he or his colleagues in Scotland say seriously.

[nirvana]

Thought Farron , other than his obsession with Brexit, performed much better than I expected.

Robertson totally pointless..gtfo

Rudd did quite well I thought, resilient and a couple of good zingers but most importantly blocked for May who would have been slaughtered, I think, in that environment. Had the good grace to smile when she was talking bollocks too.

Lucas, Wood, Corbyn all performed exactly as I would have expected.

Nuttall..oh dear

[TightEnd]

Doubt it changed much either way. Rudd held up well. Her dad died on Monday and she went through with doing it. Tough lady. Unlike her boss, it might be said.