The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Not really my comfort zone this, but we are not self sufficient in many food areas right?

So unless food production output rises post Brexit, and it might but there is a finite supply of land, then we will still be importing only at higher, possibly WTO if no deal, prices. So that feeds through into higher CPI which with lower economic growth means stagflation?

Happy to be told otherwise.

[Woodsey]

Not really my comfort zone this, but we are not self sufficient in many food areas right?

So unless food production output rises post Brexit, and it might but there is a finite supply of land, then we will still be importing only at higher, possibly WTO if no deal, prices. So that feeds through into higher CPI which with lower economic growth means stagflation?

Happy to be told otherwise.

EU imports have checked UK production of some foods because some parts of it can’t compete. Like you don’t know absolute facts but have seen some of my family that farms have had to look elsewhere for an income. Yes some of that land has been sold for expensive housing because of the EU.....

OK on zee piss now, out for the night..... 😊

[RED-DOG]

Not really my comfort zone this, but we are not self sufficient in many food areas right?

So unless food production output rises post Brexit, and it might but there is a finite supply of land, then we will still be importing only at higher, possibly WTO if no deal, prices. So that feeds through into higher CPI which with lower economic growth means stagflation?

Happy to be told otherwise.

EU imports have checked UK production of some foods because some parts of it can’t compete. Like you don’t know absolute facts but have seen some of my family that farms have had to look elsewhere for an income. Yes some of that land has been sold for expensive housing because of the EU.....

OK on zee piss now, out for the night..... 😊

Don't drink any foreign larger...

[MANTIS01]

Ok. What is there positive? Facts, not hopes...Irish Border solution? Customs solution? Avoiding a no deal exit?

Give it your best shot.

It was a Long shot two years ago but a series of unforced errors (red lines, botched early election, early notification of A50 with no plan) have left it unworkable without severe economic shocks

we will become more self-sufficient, buy British more frequently. Industries like farming will be more innovative. Think it will overall stimulate more pride in the country, which has been sadly lacking in recent years. Our businesses will become more resourceful and reach out to new markets through the need to be more competitive. We will definitely have more control, which was a pressing issue for many. New relationships, new rules, sense of freedom. We will be the trailblazers that other nations currently in the EU will definitely follow. 

Sure there will be economic shocks, which will be felt throughout the EU. But when the French are burning tyres and the Spanish sleeping in the afternoon Great Britian will simply keep calm and carry on, our spirit being best positioned to deal with adversity when compared to jonny foreigner. And what a great lesson the EU will be teaching all the people of Europe with their petty bollocks, sure will make those leaders popular.

Thank you

So nothing specific then, just some jingoistic ideals.

Specifically for e.g. I think British Farming will be reformed for the better

More specifically I think peach farming will prove lucrative

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/18/farming-businesses-could-be-wiped-out-after-brexit-transition

Conditions are going to change across the board that's for sure.

These articles are merely opinions that when conditions become more challenging we will simply falter.

Whereas I figure we will adapt and become more ingenious, as is our way.

Regards to farming I think moving away from subsidies and Common Agricultural Policy are both positive.

CAP favour big global companies so gravitating to a more local produce self-sufficiency model seems progressive.

Don't think buying potatoes from farmer Giles in the village is true jingoism.

Bet fishing moves forward as well.

[TightEnd]

this is really interesting stuff

also interesting that the NYT is leading it

The Russian ambassador poured vodka made for Stalin. Then he talked business. Why did Russians offer deals in gold and diamond's to Brexit's biggest backer?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/29/world/europe/russia-britain-brexit-arron-banks.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesworld

[TightEnd]

that this man is displaying chutzpah goes without saying....


Former top Number 10 aide Nick Timothy: Britain heading for worst possible Brexit

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/96369/former-top-number-10-aide-nick-timothy-britain-heading

[TightEnd]

this is interesting too

someone kept  the original government pamphlet from the 1975 referendum on whether we should stay in the European Community (Common Market). These were the government’s estimated effects of leaving after 2 years of membership. Imagine the effects after 35+ years of integration

(also its much better than the remain campaign was!)

[TightEnd]

the sundays

[TightEnd]

and more

[TightEnd]

Partly inspired by Adam Boulton’s piece in the Times today (a contrarian view - well worth a read), here’s a guide to understanding the govt’s approach to Brexit which was posted earlier

--

 It is tempting to think that it’s senseless, some sort of ‘mad riddle’ that no one can understand, a random labyrinth of decision making. But I think this rather misses the point.

Imagine there are only 2 choices, A and B, both of which are unpalatable.

Choice A would require the restructuring of parts of the UK economy.

Choice B would involve accepting various aspects of control that might currently be considered unacceptable in the context of the referendum result.

There is not a clear majority of support (public opinion or HoC) for either A or B.

But there is likely a clear majority in the Cons party against B (or at least more than sufficient to trigger a leadership contest).

So what do you do? You come up with a third way (Option C) that might be able to command a majority (public and HoC).

But over a period of time it becomes evident that C will not work. Do you abandon it and embrace either A or B?

No you don’t, for the reasons mentioned above. Instead, you plough on with C until the point at which majority opinion has decisively switched to A or B.

it would be very generous to consider this to be a deliberate strategy (frog boiling etc) but it has a certain logic in the circumstances.

It also has one very big flaw. Maybe it would work if there was infinite time available. Eventually opinion would shift one way or another.

But time is rapidly running out. In our finite context, the logical next step is a political crisis to resolve the decision between A and B. Fasten your seatbelts.


---

interesting!

[nirvana]

this is interesting too

someone kept  the original government pamphlet from the 1975 referendum on whether we should stay in the European Community (Common Market). These were the government’s estimated effects of leaving after 2 years of membership. Imagine the effects after 35+ years of integration

(also its much better than the remain campaign was!)

Interesting piece that - I guess they were very different times. Saying pretty much the same stuff I suppose but without the scornful tone (you'd have to be an idiot to want out) and peach shortages of course :-)

Seems much more adult but I guess immigration weighs much more heavily (post Maastricht and Amsterdam) as an issue today. It really was an economic decision back then.

The financlal crisis in 2008 and so called austerity since are factors but I think it's unarguable that the wage stagnation in the UK is largely down to freedom of movement and enlargement. Greed (Tories and Blair) has killed the goose

[MANTIS01]

Now that the sky is falling in I can't grasp how the Labour Party is getting off so lightly. As the main opposition party where have they been throughout? Where were they during the lead up to the referendum with all the facts and tables predicting abject misery for everybody? Where have they been since the vote? Considering they are majority Remain why are they not using protest votes more readily? Where on earth is Jezza Corbyn?

It's all well and good saying the world is going to end. That Maybot has some impossible problem to juggle, shame on her. But where has the effective opposition been throughout? Embarrassing really.

[TightEnd]

Now that the sky is falling in I can't grasp how the Labour Party is getting off so lightly. As the main opposition party where have they been throughout? Where were they during the lead up to the referendum with all the facts and tables predicting abject misery for everybody? Where have they been since the vote? Considering they are majority Remain why are they not using protest votes more readily? Where on earth is Jezza Corbyn?

It's all well and good saying the world is going to end. That Maybot has some impossible problem to juggle, shame on her. But where has the effective opposition been throughout? Embarrassing really.

because Corbyn is a bigger leaver than most

therefore effective opposition,and with it any remote hope of having an impact in de-railing the train before it his the buffers, is non-existent

[MANTIS01]

Now that the sky is falling in I can't grasp how the Labour Party is getting off so lightly. As the main opposition party where have they been throughout? Where were they during the lead up to the referendum with all the facts and tables predicting abject misery for everybody? Where have they been since the vote? Considering they are majority Remain why are they not using protest votes more readily? Where on earth is Jezza Corbyn?

It's all well and good saying the world is going to end. That Maybot has some impossible problem to juggle, shame on her. But where has the effective opposition been throughout? Embarrassing really.

because Corbyn is a bigger leaver than most

therefore effective opposition,and with it any remote hope of having an impact in de-railing the train before it his the buffers, is non-existent

So why are Labour MP's putting Corbyn's interests ahead of the country's when they vote on matters of such importance?

They have a chance of saving all our souls, putting pressure on Tory MP's to rebel but follow Corbyn instead.

And Corbyn is a thoroughly ineffective leader. Unable even, to make headway with Armageddon as a back drop.

VWP Labour in all this.

[TightEnd]

Now that the sky is falling in I can't grasp how the Labour Party is getting off so lightly. As the main opposition party where have they been throughout? Where were they during the lead up to the referendum with all the facts and tables predicting abject misery for everybody? Where have they been since the vote? Considering they are majority Remain why are they not using protest votes more readily? Where on earth is Jezza Corbyn?

It's all well and good saying the world is going to end. That Maybot has some impossible problem to juggle, shame on her. But where has the effective opposition been throughout? Embarrassing really.

because Corbyn is a bigger leaver than most

therefore effective opposition,and with it any remote hope of having an impact in de-railing the train before it his the buffers, is non-existent

So why are Labour MP's putting Corbyn's interests ahead of the country's when they vote on matters of such importance?

They have a chance of saving all our souls, putting pressure on Tory MP's to rebel but follow Corbyn instead.

And Corbyn is a thoroughly ineffective leader. Unable even, to make headway with Armageddon as a back drop.

VWP Labour in all this.

I actually agree with you.

By the same token the Tory rebels aren't Tory rebels. Walk up the top of hill repeatedly and march back down before going over the top (as she threatens them with "i will be replaced and you'll get boris and the bastards in charge")

notable exceptions on both sides, ken clarke for example, who vote with what they believe not retention of power or their seat in mind