The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Lots of stories regarding big business and the pressure they're applying.

Do Remain think corporate lobbyists should influence government policy?

sure. no different from any other economy stakeholder

in fact they have a fiduciary duty to their owners and shareholders to try to do so

absence of a single market, customs union has big implications for their bottom line and where they should operate.

furthermore the business secretary should be representing their interests in cabinet which it appears he is trying to do

Right-wing politics imo, can't sit well with comrade corbyn

well his anti EU long held stance comes from a different angle, anti capitalist.

Its quite fun to watch him try to pin the tories for being anti-business

[Woodsey]

No food? Maybe it’s finally a chance to lose some weight 

[TightEnd]

No food? Maybe it’s finally a chance to lose some weight 

snap

supply shortages, food and medical, once stockpiles deplete

[Woodsey]

No food? Maybe it’s finally a chance to lose some weight  

snap

supply shortages, food and medical, once stockpiles deplete

Ive got my own access to a decent supply of medicines but you’re not getting any  

[TightEnd]

No food? Maybe it’s finally a chance to lose some weight 

snap

supply shortages, food and medical, once stockpiles deplete

Ive got my own access to a decent supply of medicines but you’re not getting any 

clearly you wont need any, as everything is going to be fantastic as we march to the sunlit uplands of independence from EU tyranny and global trade deals with the fantastically non=protectionist President Trump

I for one look forward to the moment we are free.

[TightEnd]

German companies are already shifting supply chains. Hard Brexit is happening right now. http://eurointelligence.com/public

[TightEnd]

Britain has made a "serious and grave" lack of progress on Brexit, according to EU leaders. But the Tories don't seem to care, says

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/06/today-eu-summit--brexit-theresa-may-cabinet

[TightEnd]

another subject

If Merkel falls, Europe falls

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/angela-merkel-eu?utm_term=.ioLEDwN8Z#.yu1Op03Eg

[TightEnd]

Can May persuade EU to relax its red lines?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44650318

[TightEnd]

This is brilliant

the Pinter-esque pause before Dyer's last comment had me chuckling away

My Dyer may be the only person on tv left talking sense about the whole subject!

[RED-DOG]

He reminds me of this.

[TightEnd]

Here are the EU's conclusions on the current state of Article 50 talks:

— "no substantial progress" on Irish backstop
— Gibraltar not yet sorted
— Member states must "step up their work on preparedness at all levels and for all outcomes" i.e. no deal

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/35966/29-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf …

[TightEnd]

a must read

 
@pmdfoster

Why will Barnier reject attempts by the UK to enter a 'Single Market for Goods" - as @CER_Grant and other well-informed UK sources is suggesting is the plan?

Some thoughts on what Barnier means by "huge and serious" differences 

As the EU services lobby group @EUServicesForum warned in a letter to @MichelBarnier and @DavidDavisMP this week some 20% 40% of the value modern day manufactured goods are in fact services.

That's embedded value in form of design, finance etc.

EU sources tell me they will "shoot down" a UK attempt to align on goods, but diverge on services because it will give UK unfair advantage.

Softer environmental rules, a soft loan that amounts to state aid, cheaper than EU data protection regime will all equate to advantage

Per EU source, "even 1%-2%" distortion is too much - and EU states that trade with UK are "very clear" they won't wear it.

So either UK takes full Single Market, or none of it.

The UK side push back that Switzerland has similar arrangements - true, but EU hates it - and also accept that an SM for Goods deal would require deep discussion on "level playing-field provisions".

Even then, it would require political will from EU side, which is lacking.

This sets up a worrying dynamic.

May takes plunge at Chequers, agrees CU in all but name, high alignment, SM for goods, it gets seen as MASSIVE leap in UK....but gets dumped on in EU.

That is going to make talks v tough.

Which begs the question, what does the EU want, if there is nothing between Canada Dry and Norway plus.

May can have an Free Trade Agreement, but of course, and stay in a Customs Union, but that does not fix the alignment problem.

OR the Irish border issue...

May is adamant she will not have a border in the Irish Sea - but the EU are equally adamant that the UK is making too big a deal of this issue.

They question if checks East-West really do post a "threat to the constitutional integrity of the UK"

Instead, the EU sees May's concern as an excuse not to cut a deal on Ireland in order to force an Autumn crunch, where Dublin and the EU fold on their red lines.

The EU side say they are determined not to let that happen, but...
The June Summit (once critical) has passed, and nothing has happened.

The Brits seem to be winning that argument anyway - or may be winning, depending on the outcome of that 'crunch'

If EU rejects UK plan, as promised, EU sources tell me they will focus on "de-dramatising" the Irish Sea issue.

Recall Barnier's slide on all the border checks NOT covered by a CU (a lot)...the Q will be how many of those conformity checks can be done away from the border?

By this means, the EU will try to win the argument.

The problem is that if UK accepts FTA, with CU and alignment, that means SAME CHECKS between Holyhead-Belfast as Dover-Calais.

Can the DUP wear that? Can May? Even de-dramatised?

This is why no deal fears are rising.

If EU can't see space between Canada and Norway type deals, and UK can't make the kind of bold political moves needed to access the interim space, you have a problem.

Not least of time..

Even if the UK cabinet could make a big leap at Chequers (doubtful) it would still need a v hard negotiation to access a Swiss-style deal.

On level playing-field issues outlined above, ECJ-role and (eek!) some kind of pay-to-play financial contributions

The Brits talk of a "temporary customs arrangement" after 2020 transition as a "bridge to the future" but there again, the EU playing hard.

They see that as a two-step process where UK improves its lot over time. No cigar

All of which means there really are "huge and serious" differences.

And one last (cheery) point. If you think back to previous crunches (the bill, say) there was a lot of working going on technically behind the scenes. Landing zones were being created...

Which mean that when political permission was given to land, there were clear spaces to touch down.

With the exception of some deeper technical work on Northern Ireland, officials on both sides fret that the political deadlock is making that prep work impossible.

In short. People on both sides know they need to "access the space" between Norway and Canada, but they are defining that space very differently.

Pathways are not clear. Even non-alarmist people can see how a 'no deal' happens - though that still seems, on balance, unlikely /18

To sum up.

May has made big leaps in the past (Florence on the Brexit bill, for example), and appears to be bracing for another.

This risk is that this time, she gets a very hard landing. ENDS

[TightEnd]

Donald Tusk's 2-sentence warning to Theresa May on Brexit: "The EU27 has taken note of what has been achieved however there is a great deal of work ahead and the most difficult issues still need to be resolved.

"This is the last call to lay the cards on the table."

[TightEnd]

"Speak for England, Danny Dyer. You’ve blown the lid on Brexit:” brilliant as always by ⁦Marina Hyde⁩

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/29/england-danny-dyer-brexit-eu-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other