The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Pokerpops]

I would urge everyone to read this, remain or leave, concerned or sanguine

Its a long read but its important.

the writer began on social media by saying

"Here's the truth about Brexit, the "punishment" some people claim the EU wants to inflict on us, the full horrific consequences of no deal, and the dangers lurking behind any deal we reach. Buckle in, it's pretty long. Better to be thorough than to leave anything out. "

200,000 views later he put it in this PDF

It's fascinating

https://www.docdroid.net/m3YvOS5/brexit-truth-revised.pdf

Where was he when the referendum campaign was happening?

When the Remain side were outlining vague threats about how it would be difficult for us and Leavers were allowed to just say WTO with nobody seriously challenging them.

Would this have changed my view of the EU, no.
Would it have changed my vote in the referendum. Almost certainly.

Does it change anything now? I still don’t see how, unless Mrs May is prepared to be the sacrificial offering and is planning on just saying ‘Brexit means we stay’.

In Hand Analysis terms we’re in ‘Fold pre, but as played it’s a clear all-in and hope that villain folds’ territory.

Would be a bit like the villain folding the king high straight flush just in case we had a better straight flush though....

Could you fold  to a shove on the river with the board reading ?

[TightEnd]

Backstop policy loop. 3 options. No escape

1. Agree NI-only backstop in exit treaty. Aim to avoid with UK-EU deal post-Brexit

2. Buy time: longer UK transition (SM/CU or CU only) to make option 1 realistic

3. Scrap NI backstop, agree principles (won't fly, return to opt 1)


1. DUP won't buy it.

2. ERG won't buy it.

3. EU won't buy it.

Return to Go.


what have you got?

[MANTIS01]

This whole thing comes down to the fact Britain has lost it’s identity over the last few decades

Some people care about that a lot.

Some people don’t care about that at all.

I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely interested in this.

What is " The whole thing" how would you define Britain's identity, and what, or who exactly has lost it?

The divide has been present throughout and in fact those differences have become more entrenched across the last two years. Several commentators have identified a generational divide between old and young and that appears to be statistically true. Rhetoric towards the 'old' has been rather condescending imo and they've been labelled racist, stubborn or stupid. Trying to look at the situation objectively I would guess that the old are more invested in the generation-defining WWII than the young. Even today look at the % of old wearing poppies vs the young. Must say that if a loved one was blown to bits fighting for certain freedoms I would be heavily invested in those freedoms, whatever the cost.

So we can take war as an example to answer your question. All those British kids who lost their lives were fighting for something, to protect certain values. Whatever those values are equals identity and it can mean different things to different people. But we do have a vivid history of entering conflicts in all corners of the world and that has created an identity. We are always told that it's vital for Britain to defend freedom from tyranny. Go to the other side of the world and throw thousands of innocent lives away along with gazillions of pounds to protect values. It would make major economic sense not to enter these conflicts. Who would care if we appear spineless?

Remain argument says people should happily and readily toss aside deeply ingrained values because of the threat of marginal economic decline. Think that's a major divide. 

Another example would be immigration. Growing up in Birmingham it was rare to see a face that wasn't white. Fast forward a few decades and there are vast swathes of the city where there are no white people at all and English isn't spoken in the shops. A very multicultural city just like many across the country, another very clear change in identity. But hey it's something that British people have embraced and we've created one of the most multi-cultural, tolerant countries in the world. Brits should be proud of that identity. However, due to austerity and population growth social infrastructure has been put under immense pressure and it's impacted our daily lives. So makes sense uncontrolled movement into Britain is a concern for folk. Last time I went to hospital I sat there for 9 hours in a packed waiting room filled with majority foreign people. Families being worried about social support and facilities aren't racist and it's a groundless accusation from the other side. Folk just want control measures in place to offer a sense of reassurance.

Another sense of identity for me is that the British can rise to the challenge, plucky fighters, stiff upper lip, succeed against the odds, lead the world to new frontiers. Whatever it was that put Great into Britain. So I retain confidence in us, that we can rise to the challenge ahead, we are good at this. But all I'm hearing is we should capitulate in front of the challenge, crawl back apologising for any trouble caused. Who cares if we're not Great anymore? Who cares if we're spineless now? I'm not willing to accept that identity mate.

[kukushkin88]

I would urge everyone to read this, remain or leave, concerned or sanguine

Its a long read but its important.

the writer began on social media by saying

"Here's the truth about Brexit, the "punishment" some people claim the EU wants to inflict on us, the full horrific consequences of no deal, and the dangers lurking behind any deal we reach. Buckle in, it's pretty long. Better to be thorough than to leave anything out. "

200,000 views later he put it in this PDF

It's fascinating

https://www.docdroid.net/m3YvOS5/brexit-truth-revised.pdf

Where was he when the referendum campaign was happening?

When the Remain side were outlining vague threats about how it would be difficult for us and Leavers were allowed to just say WTO with nobody seriously challenging them.

Would this have changed my view of the EU, no.
Would it have changed my vote in the referendum. Almost certainly.

Does it change anything now? I still don’t see how, unless Mrs May is prepared to be the sacrificial offering and is planning on just saying ‘Brexit means we stay’.

In Hand Analysis terms we’re in ‘Fold pre, but as played it’s a clear all-in and hope that villain folds’ territory.

Would be a bit like the villain folding the king high straight flush just in case we had a better straight flush though....

Could you fold  to a shove on the river with the board reading ?

I guess our decision is a little easier if our opponent is holding 7 2 o/s face up and keeps insisting he knows what he’s doing, even though everyone keeps telling him his cards are exposed.

[kukushkin88]

This whole thing comes down to the fact Britain has lost it’s identity over the last few decades

Some people care about that a lot.

Some people don’t care about that at all.

I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely interested in this.

What is " The whole thing" how would you define Britain's identity, and what, or who exactly has lost it?

The divide has been present throughout and in fact those differences have become more entrenched across the last two years. Several commentators have identified a generational divide between old and young and that appears to be statistically true. Rhetoric towards the 'old' has been rather condescending imo and they've been labelled racist, stubborn or stupid. Trying to look at the situation objectively I would guess that the old are more invested in the generation-defining WWII than the young. Even today look at the % of old wearing poppies vs the young. Must say that if a loved one was blown to bits fighting for certain freedoms I would be heavily invested in those freedoms, whatever the cost.

So we can take war as an example to answer your question. All those British kids who lost their lives were fighting for something, to protect certain values. Whatever those values are equals identity and it can mean different things to different people. But we do have a vivid history of entering conflicts in all corners of the world and that has created an identity. We are always told that it's vital for Britain to defend freedom from tyranny. Go to the other side of the world and throw thousands of innocent lives away along with gazillions of pounds to protect values. It would make major economic sense not to enter these conflicts. Who would care if we appear spineless?

Remain argument says people should happily and readily toss aside deeply ingrained values because of the threat of marginal economic decline. Think that's a major divide. 

Another example would be immigration. Growing up in Birmingham it was rare to see a face that wasn't white. Fast forward a few decades and there are vast swathes of the city where there are no white people at all and English isn't spoken in the shops. A very multicultural city just like many across the country, another very clear change in identity. But hey it's something that British people have embraced and we've created one of the most multi-cultural, tolerant countries in the world. Brits should be proud of that identity. However, due to austerity and population growth social infrastructure has been put under immense pressure and it's impacted our daily lives. So makes sense uncontrolled movement into Britain is a concern for folk. Last time I went to hospital I sat there for 9 hours in a packed waiting room filled with majority foreign people. Families being worried about social support and facilities aren't racist and it's a groundless accusation from the other side. Folk just want control measures in place to offer a sense of reassurance.

Another sense of identity for me is that the British can rise to the challenge, plucky fighters, stiff upper lip, succeed against the odds, lead the world to new frontiers. Whatever it was that put Great into Britain. So I retain confidence in us, that we can rise to the challenge ahead, we are good at this. But all I'm hearing is we should capitulate in front of the challenge, crawl back apologising for any trouble caused. Who cares if we're not Great anymore? Who cares if we're spineless now? I'm not willing to accept that identity mate.

Obviously it’s all beyond risible and well in to ridiculous fantasy territory. Let’s just focus on the experience at the hospital though. You vote for a political party that has provided less real terms funding to the NHS than any government before and then blame immigrants for the situation. When we know immigrants are big net contributors to the Exchequer. It’s just right wing tabloid fantasy.

[nirvana]

Never commented on this thread as I generally keep political thoughts to myself. However I voted brexit and feel that we are all talking about some issues but completely ignoring others.

1. Happy to reduce the number of people coming to this country. But not if they are workers. By stopping Europeans who don't want to work... great. But I'm happy for anyone who wants to work to stay. By restricting european people it doesn't solve the issue. My friend who is English but of Pakistan culture just bought his new wife into the country. She speaks no English. She is not enrolling for English lessons and has no intention of ever working in a paid job. When will this conversation include non Europeans ?

2. I would like uk people to get more chances to got jobs. However we are at the point where if you want a job you can get one as unemployment falls. In order to get more uk people in jobs we need to reduce some benefits so that the have no choice. We keep hearing we will lose lots of farm workers yet we pay people to stay at home. This needs addressing. (I'm aware some people cannot work and need support and they are not the people I'm talking about here). Some people need forcing to take these jobs.

Thoughts ?

I've mentioned non europeans. I'm happy to see more. I also don't mind more Europeans coming

[kukushkin88]

lol see, zoom straight to the numbers, like moths to a flame.

more pertinent question is do we know what "vassal" means?

incidentally, anybody who thinks EU reform was not required is welcome to make their case....

What reform did you have in mind? It’s a body that constantly changes and evolves, we elect the people that are responsible for bringing about that change when it is needed. It seems an OK system to me. I’d like to keep it the same.

We don’t elect the people that are responsible for changing the EU. That’s one of the major issues that makes it a less than satisfactory organisation.

I thought this but surely Kush cant be wrong?!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/07/14/does-it-make-sense-to-refer-to-eu-officials-as-unelected-bureaucrats

I’ll accept that there is some measure of democratic process as outlined by the article. The EU bureaucrats are chosen by people who have been chosen by people who were chosen by elected politicians who were chosen by voters.

The closing paragraph of the article chosen to show us that this is, therefore, all fine and dandy...

Eurosceptics have a valid case against the EU, but not because its leaders are “unelected bureaucrats”. Rather, its bureaucrats are too insulated from democracy, and its democracy is not functioning well enough without a common demos to make it work.

When we compare it all other governments, it really looks quite good for how ‘elected’ they are. We have the House of Lords and a bizarre role for the queen. We have way more unelected government officials both total and as a percentage. The US is very similar to the EU, no one seems too concerned by how unelected they are.

[MANTIS01]

This whole thing comes down to the fact Britain has lost it’s identity over the last few decades

Some people care about that a lot.

Some people don’t care about that at all.

I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely interested in this.

What is " The whole thing" how would you define Britain's identity, and what, or who exactly has lost it?

The divide has been present throughout and in fact those differences have become more entrenched across the last two years. Several commentators have identified a generational divide between old and young and that appears to be statistically true. Rhetoric towards the 'old' has been rather condescending imo and they've been labelled racist, stubborn or stupid. Trying to look at the situation objectively I would guess that the old are more invested in the generation-defining WWII than the young. Even today look at the % of old wearing poppies vs the young. Must say that if a loved one was blown to bits fighting for certain freedoms I would be heavily invested in those freedoms, whatever the cost.

So we can take war as an example to answer your question. All those British kids who lost their lives were fighting for something, to protect certain values. Whatever those values are equals identity and it can mean different things to different people. But we do have a vivid history of entering conflicts in all corners of the world and that has created an identity. We are always told that it's vital for Britain to defend freedom from tyranny. Go to the other side of the world and throw thousands of innocent lives away along with gazillions of pounds to protect values. It would make major economic sense not to enter these conflicts. Who would care if we appear spineless?

Remain argument says people should happily and readily toss aside deeply ingrained values because of the threat of marginal economic decline. Think that's a major divide. 

Another example would be immigration. Growing up in Birmingham it was rare to see a face that wasn't white. Fast forward a few decades and there are vast swathes of the city where there are no white people at all and English isn't spoken in the shops. A very multicultural city just like many across the country, another very clear change in identity. But hey it's something that British people have embraced and we've created one of the most multi-cultural, tolerant countries in the world. Brits should be proud of that identity. However, due to austerity and population growth social infrastructure has been put under immense pressure and it's impacted our daily lives. So makes sense uncontrolled movement into Britain is a concern for folk. Last time I went to hospital I sat there for 9 hours in a packed waiting room filled with majority foreign people. Families being worried about social support and facilities aren't racist and it's a groundless accusation from the other side. Folk just want control measures in place to offer a sense of reassurance.

Another sense of identity for me is that the British can rise to the challenge, plucky fighters, stiff upper lip, succeed against the odds, lead the world to new frontiers. Whatever it was that put Great into Britain. So I retain confidence in us, that we can rise to the challenge ahead, we are good at this. But all I'm hearing is we should capitulate in front of the challenge, crawl back apologising for any trouble caused. Who cares if we're not Great anymore? Who cares if we're spineless now? I'm not willing to accept that identity mate.

Obviously it’s all beyond risible and well in to ridiculous fantasy territory. Let’s just focus on the experience at the hospital though. You vote for a political party that has provided less real terms funding to the NHS than any government before and then blame immigrants for the situation. When we know immigrants are big net contributors to the Exchequer. It’s just right wing tabloid fantasy.

I'm saying I understand why people draw conclusions or concerns arise from what they see in their daily lives

As a wizard-type you are saying people should forget what they see or experience and should refer instead to the pie chart that illustrates 'real terms funding'

[kukushkin88]

This whole thing comes down to the fact Britain has lost it’s identity over the last few decades

Some people care about that a lot.

Some people don’t care about that at all.

I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely interested in this.

What is " The whole thing" how would you define Britain's identity, and what, or who exactly has lost it?

The divide has been present throughout and in fact those differences have become more entrenched across the last two years. Several commentators have identified a generational divide between old and young and that appears to be statistically true. Rhetoric towards the 'old' has been rather condescending imo and they've been labelled racist, stubborn or stupid. Trying to look at the situation objectively I would guess that the old are more invested in the generation-defining WWII than the young. Even today look at the % of old wearing poppies vs the young. Must say that if a loved one was blown to bits fighting for certain freedoms I would be heavily invested in those freedoms, whatever the cost.

So we can take war as an example to answer your question. All those British kids who lost their lives were fighting for something, to protect certain values. Whatever those values are equals identity and it can mean different things to different people. But we do have a vivid history of entering conflicts in all corners of the world and that has created an identity. We are always told that it's vital for Britain to defend freedom from tyranny. Go to the other side of the world and throw thousands of innocent lives away along with gazillions of pounds to protect values. It would make major economic sense not to enter these conflicts. Who would care if we appear spineless?

Remain argument says people should happily and readily toss aside deeply ingrained values because of the threat of marginal economic decline. Think that's a major divide. 

Another example would be immigration. Growing up in Birmingham it was rare to see a face that wasn't white. Fast forward a few decades and there are vast swathes of the city where there are no white people at all and English isn't spoken in the shops. A very multicultural city just like many across the country, another very clear change in identity. But hey it's something that British people have embraced and we've created one of the most multi-cultural, tolerant countries in the world. Brits should be proud of that identity. However, due to austerity and population growth social infrastructure has been put under immense pressure and it's impacted our daily lives. So makes sense uncontrolled movement into Britain is a concern for folk. Last time I went to hospital I sat there for 9 hours in a packed waiting room filled with majority foreign people. Families being worried about social support and facilities aren't racist and it's a groundless accusation from the other side. Folk just want control measures in place to offer a sense of reassurance.

Another sense of identity for me is that the British can rise to the challenge, plucky fighters, stiff upper lip, succeed against the odds, lead the world to new frontiers. Whatever it was that put Great into Britain. So I retain confidence in us, that we can rise to the challenge ahead, we are good at this. But all I'm hearing is we should capitulate in front of the challenge, crawl back apologising for any trouble caused. Who cares if we're not Great anymore? Who cares if we're spineless now? I'm not willing to accept that identity mate.

Obviously it’s all beyond risible and well in to ridiculous fantasy territory. Let’s just focus on the experience at the hospital though. You vote for a political party that has provided less real terms funding to the NHS than any government before and then blame immigrants for the situation. When we know immigrants are big net contributors to the Exchequer. It’s just right wing tabloid fantasy.

I'm saying I understand why people draw conclusions or concerns arise from what they see in their daily lives

As a wizard-type you are saying people should forget what they see or experience and should refer instead to the pie chart that illustrates 'real terms funding'

For what we personally find frustrating of course we use our own experience, it’s bizarrre to blame immigrants for the hospital though. If we’re measuring impacts to a population, of course our experience is meaningless. Large scale studies though, we might learn something from those. You’re criticising people for using numbers to measure things, basically criticising people for using numbers to count, it’s not a great position to be in.

[RED-DOG]

This whole thing comes down to the fact Britain has lost it’s identity over the last few decades

Some people care about that a lot.

Some people don’t care about that at all.

I'm not being facetious, I'm genuinely interested in this.

What is " The whole thing" how would you define Britain's identity, and what, or who exactly has lost it?

The divide has been present throughout and in fact those differences have become more entrenched across the last two years. Several commentators have identified a generational divide between old and young and that appears to be statistically true. Rhetoric towards the 'old' has been rather condescending imo and they've been labelled racist, stubborn or stupid. Trying to look at the situation objectively I would guess that the old are more invested in the generation-defining WWII than the young. Even today look at the % of old wearing poppies vs the young. Must say that if a loved one was blown to bits fighting for certain freedoms I would be heavily invested in those freedoms, whatever the cost.

So we can take war as an example to answer your question. All those British kids who lost their lives were fighting for something, to protect certain values. Whatever those values are equals identity and it can mean different things to different people. But we do have a vivid history of entering conflicts in all corners of the world and that has created an identity. We are always told that it's vital for Britain to defend freedom from tyranny. Go to the other side of the world and throw thousands of innocent lives away along with gazillions of pounds to protect values. It would make major economic sense not to enter these conflicts. Who would care if we appear spineless?

Remain argument says people should happily and readily toss aside deeply ingrained values because of the threat of marginal economic decline. Think that's a major divide. 

Another example would be immigration. Growing up in Birmingham it was rare to see a face that wasn't white. Fast forward a few decades and there are vast swathes of the city where there are no white people at all and English isn't spoken in the shops. A very multicultural city just like many across the country, another very clear change in identity. But hey it's something that British people have embraced and we've created one of the most multi-cultural, tolerant countries in the world. Brits should be proud of that identity. However, due to austerity and population growth social infrastructure has been put under immense pressure and it's impacted our daily lives. So makes sense uncontrolled movement into Britain is a concern for folk. Last time I went to hospital I sat there for 9 hours in a packed waiting room filled with majority foreign people. Families being worried about social support and facilities aren't racist and it's a groundless accusation from the other side. Folk just want control measures in place to offer a sense of reassurance.

Another sense of identity for me is that the British can rise to the challenge, plucky fighters, stiff upper lip, succeed against the odds, lead the world to new frontiers. Whatever it was that put Great into Britain. So I retain confidence in us, that we can rise to the challenge ahead, we are good at this. But all I'm hearing is we should capitulate in front of the challenge, crawl back apologising for any trouble caused. Who cares if we're not Great anymore? Who cares if we're spineless now? I'm not willing to accept that identity mate.

I'm grateful to you for taking the time to explain but I can't quite grasp what you're on about.

I'm finding the first two paragraphs especially difficult. I mean, I understand the individual words and at first glance they seem like they should make sense, but when I try to string them together they don't.

I can't work out what the divide bit has to do with the country's identity. Young people have always thought differently than old people and each group has always dissed the other.

You say that young men gave their lives for certain values, but then admit that those values are different for different people.

The next bit seems sort of pro/anti immigration in equal measures.

If Britain can rise to a challenge, why can't it rise to the challenge of taking it's place as a team member alongside the other EU countries rather than stiffening it's upper lip and sulking alone?

[MANTIS01]

I don't recommend that we sulk alone

[horseplayer]

People should forget what they see...
Ok I will forget the Spanish senior ict nurse who stopped me choking to death on my own vomit when my traccy came out.
Ok I will forget the Ukrainian physio who when I couldn't move any limb or even my head was doing triple sessions on me (one after his shift) which eventually has meant I can walk most of the time unaided.
Ok I will forget the West Indian cleaner who kept the rehab ward going at weekends with his cheery positive attitude.
No thanks

[kukushkin88]

People should forget what they see...
Ok I will forget the Spanish senior ict nurse who stopped me choking to death on my own vomit when my traccy came out.
Ok I will forget the Ukrainian physio who when I couldn't move any limb or even my head was doing triple sessions on me (one after his shift) which eventually has meant I can walk most of the time unaided.
Ok I will forget the West Indian cleaner who kept the rehab ward going at weekends with his cheery positive attitude.
No thanks

Good evening mate,

I think we’re talking at cross purposes. I’d prefer we had a world without borders, we’ll get there one day if humans live long enough. In everything I’ve seen in my life, human beings are at their best when everyone is working for the benefit of each other. Division only weakens us. The incredible people you’ve come across in healthcare are very much part of what makes our cosmopolitan society great.  None of us should forget any of our personal experience, it’s what makes us who we are and you, (fwiw) have always seemed like a great bloke.

My point is just a stats one. How can we analyse how policy impacts on a population of 8.8 million people based on what we’ve personally seen? Our sample size is too small.

[doubleup]

Could someone tell mantis that more than 99.9% of the present British population didn't fight in WW2?  And that only 5% of the population could possibly remember living in that time.

[Pokerpops]

Could someone tell mantis that more than 99.9% of the present British population didn't fight in WW2?  And that only 5% of the population could possibly remember living in that time.