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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180868 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #17295 on: May 21, 2019, 01:24:20 AM »

So, Theresa May is going to put a gesture onto the WAB in June, but what on earth is it going to be? I can't think of anything that would help her cause.

1 - She adds workers rights commitments to the bill, but I can't see it picking up enough votes.

2 - She adds a confirmatory vote to her agreement, but would she backtrack again? This could get over the line.

3 - A customs union, but I can't see this happening, or getting over the line.

4 - Does the indicative votes she has promised, come a conclusion of whatever "wins", is added?

I think 4 is probably a goer, but also feel the one that would get her across the line is a "confirmatory vote", if she gives her own mp's a free vote. 
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« Reply #17296 on: May 21, 2019, 07:09:23 AM »

How to vote in the European Elections on Thursday?

As a Leave voter who remains convinced that the EU is broken and needs major reforms I wish I could vote for Farage’s bunch. But I really can’t.
As a GE local issues voter I gave the sitting Conservative MP my support in 2017. But I can’t vote for the party that has so royally fucked up over the last four years.
It’s a no-brainer to say that I can’t show any measure of support to a Corbyn-led Labour Party.
The LibDems are standing on a very solid Remain policy, as are the Greens.
Change UK want a second referendum but describe it as a ‘People’s Vote’ which is enough to rule them out.

Any vote I cast is likely to be misinterpreted by the psephological tendency.

Is there a N.O.T.A. Party?

Woodsey, BigArz, Kukushkin, Mantis, how will you be voting?

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« Reply #17297 on: May 21, 2019, 07:49:32 AM »

How to vote in the European Elections on Thursday?

As a Leave voter who remains convinced that the EU is broken and needs major reforms I wish I could vote for Farage’s bunch. But I really can’t.
As a GE local issues voter I gave the sitting Conservative MP my support in 2017. But I can’t vote for the party that has so royally fucked up over the last four years.
It’s a no-brainer to say that I can’t show any measure of support to a Corbyn-led Labour Party.
The LibDems are standing on a very solid Remain policy, as are the Greens.
Change UK want a second referendum but describe it as a ‘People’s Vote’ which is enough to rule them out.

Any vote I cast is likely to be misinterpreted by the psephological tendency.

Is there a N.O.T.A. Party?

Woodsey, BigArz, Kukushkin, Mantis, how will you be voting?

As luck would have it I’m not around to vote anyway. Soubry is my local MP and May has been useless so the conservatives can do one, Corbyn just lol, can’t think of anyone else I want to vote for, but if it was a compulsory election I guess the Brexit party would be my only option just to stick two fingers up to the establishment  talktothehand
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #17298 on: May 21, 2019, 09:30:17 AM »

How to vote in the European Elections on Thursday?

As a Leave voter who remains convinced that the EU is broken and needs major reforms I wish I could vote for Farage’s bunch. But I really can’t.
As a GE local issues voter I gave the sitting Conservative MP my support in 2017. But I can’t vote for the party that has so royally fucked up over the last four years.
It’s a no-brainer to say that I can’t show any measure of support to a Corbyn-led Labour Party.
The LibDems are standing on a very solid Remain policy, as are the Greens.
Change UK want a second referendum but describe it as a ‘People’s Vote’ which is enough to rule them out.

Any vote I cast is likely to be misinterpreted by the psephological tendency.

Is there a N.O.T.A. Party?

Woodsey, BigArz, Kukushkin, Mantis, how will you be voting?


It’s just going to divide down Brexit lines I guess. For the first time since 1997, I will be voting the same way as Michael Heseltine. The Lib Dems are decent in this area on the whole, they never win many votes, it’s a very Tory area.
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Marky147
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« Reply #17299 on: May 21, 2019, 09:47:52 AM »

I'm going to vote for Tyrion.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #17300 on: May 21, 2019, 10:20:46 AM »

Poll of the day, by Ipsos MORI http://nuk-tnl-deck-email.s3.amazonaws.com/2/bc59e38bc67f18b4ab36cd450302b8c6.html
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« Reply #17301 on: May 21, 2019, 03:07:10 PM »

a good point by Bush

Its indeed odd how much pro-no deal Brexit commentary (there isn't much in the press but but from its political proponents "just leave") is divorced from very recent lived political experience
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« Reply #17302 on: May 21, 2019, 04:31:51 PM »

May speech 4

The PM's "serious offer" to MPs:

— HMG legally obliged to seek alternative arrangements by Dec 2020
— GB will align w/ NI if backstop activated
— MPs will vote on future relationship objectives + outcomes (Nandy, Snell)
— EU-level workers, environmental rights maintained
— May says HMG will let MPs vote on customs AND holding a new referendum.

The PM stresses the point that in order to vote for a customs union and a referendum, MPs must vote for WAB and amend it i.e back my deal.

--

So May includes CU offer in the WAB. Tory MPs will flip. As its her last throw of the dice, not sure she will care!

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Longines
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« Reply #17303 on: May 21, 2019, 05:30:33 PM »


— HMG legally obliged to seek alternative arrangements by Dec 2020



.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #17304 on: May 22, 2019, 10:07:41 AM »

Final YouGov / Times European Election poll

- Brexit party on 37%
- Tories 5th in 7%
- Labour now comfortably 6 points behind the Lib Dems
- Lib Dem’s 3-1 taking votes from 2017 Lab supporters over Tories
- Brexit party 65% Tory 13% Lab

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« Reply #17305 on: May 22, 2019, 10:09:12 AM »

A Conservative commentator said last night

"Consequences of Theresa May's speech...

1. Cut another 1 or 2% off the Tory vote on Thursday
2. Any cabinet minister who now stands for the leadership is toast
3. Labour will find reasons not to support it, even though she's bunged them virtually everything they want

Way to go."
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« Reply #17306 on: May 22, 2019, 10:09:54 AM »

"Much like Game of Thrones, Brexit will almost certainly end not with one or the other side claiming victory but with a bodged-together compromise that makes no-one especially happy and leaves everyone a wee bit disappointed. Sorry."
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« Reply #17307 on: May 22, 2019, 10:10:40 AM »

"Brexit is a sham, but Theresa May just won’t admit it"
Rafael Behr

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/21/brexit-theresa-may-no-deal
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« Reply #17308 on: May 22, 2019, 10:11:10 AM »

EU despairs at emptiness of May's latest Brexit offer

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/eu-despair-emptiness-may-latest-brexit-offer-mps
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« Reply #17309 on: May 22, 2019, 10:17:44 AM »

i think i have it all worked out anyway..

clears throat


--

Fourth WAB vote fails, by bigger majority than previous three

May goes

Tory Members, a majority of whom are pro WTO get outers, are faced with a choice of Boris and Raab (my favourite Brexit bullshitter because, alone among people saying they could negotiate a better deal, he has tried once already, when it was literally his job, and already failed.)

Boris becomes Prime Minister

Goes to Europe. Discovers he can't get any material concessions either

In the run up to October, time is running out

No WAB can get through parliament, no majority for 2nd ref, CU, no deal...nothing

The choice then becomes stark,no deal or revoke.

Boris of course opts for no deal

but he cannot get it through Parliament.

There is a vote of no confidence. The One nation tories know going to the polls would be disaster but cannot accept no deal

the government falls

Election

Tories lose many seats but Corbyn doesn't make that much headway either. From a Lab/Tory combined vote of 80% in 2017, that falls to the mid 60s as Lib dems make some progress and the Brexit Party is second in a lot of seats

Corbyn attempts to put together a coalition, but his potential coalition partners will not accept leaving.

He eventually argues that ending austerity, improving equality, investing in services, nationalising stuff is more important and opts to stick with revoke

Civil disorder follows, making the poll tax riots look like a 5th birthday party

after that, dunno!
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 10:19:26 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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