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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1328607 times)
bookiebasher
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« Reply #17445 on: May 26, 2019, 01:54:41 PM »

41%
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Marky147
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« Reply #17446 on: May 26, 2019, 02:39:28 PM »

40%
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AndrewT
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« Reply #17447 on: May 26, 2019, 02:58:43 PM »

right back for the election results tomorrow

who wants to guess the Brexit Party vote share?

closest wins a banana


i will start,37%

I will go for 34.5% - if I win I want my prize to be one of the proper bendy British bananas and not one of those straight Brussels EU monstrosities.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #17448 on: May 26, 2019, 03:38:20 PM »

Conservative leadership elections are a graveyard for early favourites - as far as I can tell the early favourite has never won (discounting 1989, when Thatcher received a token challenge and 1995, when Major quit and restood to smoke out dissenters)

1965 - Reginald Maudling (beaten by Ted Heath)
1975 - Ted Heath (Thatcher)
1990 - Michael Heseltine (John Major)
1997 - Ken Clarke (William Hague)
2001 - Michael Portillo (Iain Duncan Smith!)
2005 - David Davis (David Cameron)
2016 - Boris Johnson (Theresa May)
2019 - Boris Johnson (?)

Boris's price has gone for a little walk last couple of days - he was matched at under 1.8 on Betfair but is now nearly 3. The mover in that time is Michael Gove (inventor of the Boris Johnson knife rack three years ago).

I assume that, right now, polls are being done with the Tory membership - the last one from Yougov (which was done before May resigned) had Boris at 39%, but everyone else added together was 54%.
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AndrewT
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« Reply #17449 on: May 26, 2019, 03:44:28 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/heidi-allen-says-change-uk-could-merge-with-liberal-democrats

If you're wondering what that aroma is, it's the smell of a goose that is well and truly cooked.
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nirvana
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« Reply #17450 on: May 26, 2019, 04:52:26 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/heidi-allen-says-change-uk-could-merge-with-liberal-democrats

If you're wondering what that aroma is, it's the smell of a goose that is well and truly cooked.

Such a deluded group, incredibly feeble effort
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sola virtus nobilitat
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #17451 on: May 26, 2019, 05:23:48 PM »

right back for the election results tomorrow

who wants to guess the Brexit Party vote share?

closest wins a banana


i will start,37%

32%.  Suspect that remain turnout was relatively higher than the leave one, so they’ll be towards the lower end of expectations.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Lib Dems 2nd overall in vote share.
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RickBFA
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« Reply #17452 on: May 26, 2019, 05:27:16 PM »

Conservative leadership elections are a graveyard for early favourites - as far as I can tell the early favourite has never won (discounting 1989, when Thatcher received a token challenge and 1995, when Major quit and restood to smoke out dissenters)

1965 - Reginald Maudling (beaten by Ted Heath)
1975 - Ted Heath (Thatcher)
1990 - Michael Heseltine (John Major)
1997 - Ken Clarke (William Hague)
2001 - Michael Portillo (Iain Duncan Smith!)
2005 - David Davis (David Cameron)
2016 - Boris Johnson (Theresa May)
2019 - Boris Johnson (?)

Boris's price has gone for a little walk last couple of days - he was matched at under 1.8 on Betfair but is now nearly 3. The mover in that time is Michael Gove (inventor of the Boris Johnson knife rack three years ago).

I assume that, right now, polls are being done with the Tory membership - the last one from Yougov (which was done before May resigned) had Boris at 39%, but everyone else added together was 54%.

I know a lot of people cannot stand Gove but he is a very capable, smart politician whereas Boris is well, just Boris. I think he’s respected in the Tory membership and by most Tory MP’s too.

Had a small bet on him at 10/1 a couple of days ago.
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ripple11
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« Reply #17453 on: May 26, 2019, 06:11:24 PM »

right back for the election results tomorrow

who wants to guess the Brexit Party vote share?

closest wins a banana


i will start,37%

I will go for 34.5% - if I win I want my prize to be one of the proper bendy British bananas and not one of those straight Brussels EU monstrosities.

 Grin
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ripple11
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« Reply #17454 on: May 26, 2019, 06:17:05 PM »

Go for 36%

Any shape is fine.

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ripple11
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« Reply #17455 on: May 26, 2019, 06:23:05 PM »

for the record

none of the above is presented as propaganda, brainwashing or one sided nor me trying to steamroller anyone

Its what i have seen and bookmarked over the last couple of days that i find interesting,amusing or enlightening

there is some good journalism around. There are not, three years on, many articles on the Leave side but it is what it is. Experts and the meeja innit.

All of it adds to a thread that has been running for four tumultous years (and it ain't finished yet) over 1163 pages and 713k views


Anyone is free to put up their own finds, disagree with the articles or quotes or whatever.

Peace.

Agree with the old man , love my politics and you give us lots to delve in to.

Thanks very much for your contributions .

Superb coverage Tighty , thanks.
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doubleup
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« Reply #17456 on: May 26, 2019, 07:26:25 PM »


debate on betfair forum about theresa may resigning as leader.

The market is "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?"

June was matched at very low odds sub 1.1 and then the belief arose that she would remain leader (rather than just remain PM) until a successor was chosen.

The remainers say that the "resignation" is just symbolic to get the new leader process started.  Their other main evidence is lol wikipedia has the leaving dates and successors entry dates as the same.

On the other side May has given a specific date.  If she had just been symbolically resigning, why didn't she do that on Friday?  Cameron didn't give a date, he said I'm resigning and the new leader will be along in due course hopefully by the party conference.

The Cons party constitution doesn't say the leader stays on or there must be a leader - the LibDem one does, for example.  The cons party constitution states that the party chairman can stand in for the leader.

Any thoughts specifically why May has stated a date?  (The trump visit d-day stuff are PM duties and given that it's public knowledge that she is leaving, there can't really be any face saving you would think).  I suppose she might have picked the date hoping it would be confidential, but got bumped - plausible?

Any thoughts?

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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #17457 on: May 26, 2019, 07:57:41 PM »

Votes have been counted in many London boroughs. They cannot submit until 10pm but the Lib Dems have done very well.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #17458 on: May 26, 2019, 08:01:34 PM »

Votes have been counted in many London boroughs. They cannot submit until 10pm but the Lib Dems have done very well.

This isn’t surprising considering London voted to remain & I think is a labour area.

As for the Racist Party, I genuinely think they will be in low 30’s.
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #17459 on: May 26, 2019, 08:22:31 PM »

Do show me something Farage has done that’s racist! Sure, some of his tactics have been a little unpalatable but I wouldn’t go further than perhaps call it ‘extreme patriotism’.

See how he ditched UKIP when they allowed an actual racist (Yaxley-Lennon) into the fold? And didn’t he have a German wife? Or do you think he’s just racist to browns?

I hope you dont think everyone who votes for the brexit party is racist...
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