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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180764 times)
AndrewT
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« Reply #20910 on: September 21, 2019, 12:25:33 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.
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« Reply #20911 on: September 21, 2019, 12:37:50 AM »

There’s a motion at the Labour conference to abolish the position of deputy leader, thus booting Tom Watson (not a compadre of Jeremy Corbyn) out into the wilderness.

The reason is that the Labour left have woken up to the fact they’re going to get absolutely spit-roasted by the Tories and LibDems at the upcoming election, which will be the end of Saint Jeremy. If Corbyn is forced to step down then the deputy takes over and the left do not want that as they want to be able to install a JC-acolyte as the next leader.

It is truly amazing how little interest the Labour left has in ever getting into power.
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« Reply #20912 on: September 21, 2019, 02:05:10 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.
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« Reply #20913 on: September 21, 2019, 07:27:23 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.

Thomas Cook were on the slippery slope before you all knew the word Brexit
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« Reply #20914 on: September 21, 2019, 07:41:18 AM »

According to the Institute of Directors, about 1/3rd plan to relocate their businesses after Brexit

A third!

a long thread by Faisal Islam takes us through the IOD survey

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1173700895336521731?s=20

hmmm after a certain point you have to think - is that result actually feasible?

It reminds me of teaching unions saying they've done surveys showing 3/4 of teachers have had to pay for pupils food or wash pupils clothes - sometimes a poll reflects those asked (or those that responded) more than it does the general population.

There are about 2 million ltd companies in the UK, is it really feasible that about 650,000 companies might relocate because of Brexit?
Part of the poll suggests that 5% will just choose to shut down their business because of Brexit - is it really feasible that 100,000 companies will just voluntarily wind themselves up?

About half of the limited companies are sole traders, that poll suggests that more of those think they'll be impacted by these quesitons over Brexit than the larger ones - but I'd be very surprised if the majority of sole trader ltd companies aren't, for example, a shop selling a good or service. It's possible that some supplies might come the EU but it's difficult to see how, over the whole country, such a large effect is likely.

It's not clear exactly how they got their data - but I would very much expect these result to represent a minority of business rather than the generality.
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« Reply #20915 on: September 21, 2019, 08:56:00 AM »

the commissioned poll was of 272 businesses i believe. Obviously the results come with a margin of error as with any poll. Commissioned by IOD too.
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« Reply #20916 on: September 21, 2019, 09:02:26 AM »

the commissioned poll was of 272 businesses i believe. Obviously the results come with a margin of error as with any poll. Commissioned by IOD too.

Probably 95% of that third were likely remainers just having a whine up as per usual in the desperate hope they can influence something in their direction
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« Reply #20917 on: September 21, 2019, 09:16:33 AM »

According to the Institute of Directors, about 1/3rd plan to relocate their businesses after Brexit

A third!

a long thread by Faisal Islam takes us through the IOD survey

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1173700895336521731?s=20

hmmm after a certain point you have to think - is that result actually feasible?

It reminds me of teaching unions saying they've done surveys showing 3/4 of teachers have had to pay for pupils food or wash pupils clothes - sometimes a poll reflects those asked (or those that responded) more than it does the general population.

There are about 2 million ltd companies in the UK, is it really feasible that about 650,000 companies might relocate because of Brexit?
Part of the poll suggests that 5% will just choose to shut down their business because of Brexit - is it really feasible that 100,000 companies will just voluntarily wind themselves up?

About half of the limited companies are sole traders, that poll suggests that more of those think they'll be impacted by these quesitons over Brexit than the larger ones - but I'd be very surprised if the majority of sole trader ltd companies aren't, for example, a shop selling a good or service. It's possible that some supplies might come the EU but it's difficult to see how, over the whole country, such a large effect is likely.

It's not clear exactly how they got their data - but I would very much expect these result to represent a minority of business rather than the generality.


Thet don't claim what you think they do.   They say in the survey that there are more importers/exporters than in the general population and if they are surveying institute of director's members they aren't speaking to some bloke with a window washing round.   

I know that many insurers have had to set up businesses in the EU because of Brexit.   This must be happening across financial services, as market access is not guaranteed even under the Maybot deal.  Suspect Woodsey's lot have had to rearrange stuff at corporate level too, as medicine access is going to be sensitive.

So it is entirely plausible that a third of 900 or so IoD members who complete Brexit surveys feel like this.
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« Reply #20918 on: September 21, 2019, 09:25:18 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.

You will be saying the roulette machines in the bookies and betting shop mass closures and Woolworth's went under because of brexit soon.   Such a typical desperate remoaner angle to take.   Retail is fucked generally.  Nothing to do with brexit.  TC is a dinosaur brand that was going under sooner rather than later whether the Euro rate was 1.3 or 1.1 it really doesn't make much difference.   If one freaky hot summer in the UK sends you skint your product can't be that impressive. 

As Peter Jones said on Dragons Den 'if you going to fail, fail quickly'  Brexit excuses have probably saved TC shareholders more pain if you are right that the business might have a future.
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« Reply #20919 on: September 21, 2019, 09:28:30 AM »

A large and substantial group of Labour MPs currently weighing up what to do if Tom Watson is ousted. Stay and fight on, or leave en mass?

This really is a watershed moment for Labour Party, bigger even than attempt to challenge Corbyn in 2016.

cliffs. Momentum on eve of conference submit motion to abolish deputy leader and get rid of thorn in their side Watson. Backed by Corbyn and Unions. Vote today

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-nec-hears-shock-move-to-abolish-tom-watsons-deputy-leader-post-lansman_uk_

Its amazing that this is the focus rather than working with LDs etc to form a proper remain alliance (same applies to Swinson attacking Corbyn)
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« Reply #20920 on: September 21, 2019, 11:46:29 AM »

A large and substantial group of Labour MPs currently weighing up what to do if Tom Watson is ousted. Stay and fight on, or leave en mass?

This really is a watershed moment for Labour Party, bigger even than attempt to challenge Corbyn in 2016.

cliffs. Momentum on eve of conference submit motion to abolish deputy leader and get rid of thorn in their side Watson. Backed by Corbyn and Unions. Vote today

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-nec-hears-shock-move-to-abolish-tom-watsons-deputy-leader-post-lansman_uk_

Its amazing that this is the focus rather than working with LDs etc to form a proper remain alliance (same applies to Swinson attacking Corbyn)

I don't think you can attack Lib Dems for supporting 5 years of austerity etc and then form an alliance with them. A bit like Cameron moaning about the EU (albeit to a lesser extent than predecessors) and then recommending we remain.

The least popular position in all the Brexit outcomes across the country is the LD revoke line even if it adds votes for them. The final nail in the Labour coffin would be an alliance with a party as opportunistic as the LDs and to align with such an extreme GE manifesto postion.

Labour's prospects at a GE would be much better served by re-listening to everything they said in the immediate aftermath of the ref, it was a popular position in 2017, voting through any deal that comes back and fighting an election on every issue bar Brexit

Literally, goodbye LDs in this scenario
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 11:48:40 AM by nirvana » Logged

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« Reply #20921 on: September 21, 2019, 11:52:07 AM »

Labour are highly unlikely to win a GE majority

So they are into the realms of coalition, probably LDs, possibly SNPs if they have the combined numbers to be invited to form a government

To get that and a left leaning government they are going to have to give something. SNP is easy, another indyref, LDs, what do you offer them to get them on board now they have this "pure" or "extreme" (depending on your view) position?

Hence my assertion that alliances now have benefits down the line and all parties non Conservative/non Brexit party are thinking short term in kicking lumps out of each other when they need to be thinking strategically

A johnson/farage pact is a seperate matter but still germane as really the only think that sorts Brexit is a parliamentary majority and can he get one without it?
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« Reply #20922 on: September 21, 2019, 11:57:22 AM »

also this doesn't make sense

"The least popular position in all the Brexit outcomes across the country is the LD revoke line even if it adds votes for them."

if it adds votes, it by definition can't be the least popular

Its opportunistic and possibly brazen, but if you are a remainer,what's not to like compared to the contortions of Labour's position?
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« Reply #20923 on: September 21, 2019, 12:09:55 PM »

also this doesn't make sense

"The least popular position in all the Brexit outcomes across the country is the LD revoke line even if it adds votes for them."

if it adds votes, it by definition can't be the least popular

Its opportunistic and possibly brazen, but if you are a remainer,what's not to like compared to the contortions of Labour's position?

It does make sense - they may add some votes for having this line but in the range of scenarios, popular to the British electorate, I would rank deal,,second ref, no deal, all ahead of revoke

I think Labour's position has become a lot clearer recently and makes complete sense for them. If they (haha) win a GE then there would be a second ref with a deal and remain on the ballot. You can argue about the merits of how different elements of the party might campaign in that ref but the basic position of there will be a second ref is quite clear. It's far preferable to the LD position and will ultimately prove to be more popular
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« Reply #20924 on: September 21, 2019, 12:13:40 PM »

Labour are highly unlikely to win a GE majority

So they are into the realms of coalition, probably LDs, possibly SNPs if they have the combined numbers to be invited to form a government

To get that and a left leaning government they are going to have to give something. SNP is easy, another indyref, LDs, what do you offer them to get them on board now they have this "pure" or "extreme" (depending on your view) position?

Hence my assertion that alliances now have benefits down the line and all parties non Conservative/non Brexit party are thinking short term in kicking lumps out of each other when they need to be thinking strategically

A johnson/farage pact is a seperate matter but still germane as really the only think that sorts Brexit is a parliamentary majority and can he get one without it?

This implies the LDs are left leaning - not quite sure what recent history or evidence would point to that.
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