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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1327956 times)
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« Reply #20925 on: September 20, 2019, 01:34:02 PM »

A big catch up, been flat to the boards all week

Did watch one day of the Supreme court. Compelling viewing. Enjoyed watching some different types of advocacy. Anyone else watched any of it?

I watched most of it, was utterly fascinating.

I read somewhere that on a regular day, the Supreme Court hearings are viewed by 20,000 people, but on Monday there were 4 million uniques.

I did some background research on Gina Miller too, that was quite revealing, but more of that later, maybe in my Diary which would be a more appropriate place is it's quite a bit off-topic. .



Where can I watch it on a regular day please?
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« Reply #20926 on: September 20, 2019, 01:38:46 PM »

New poll shows #LibDems winning 83 Westminster seats including five in Surrey. Tories Raab and Hunt ditched.

http://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2294

Boris faces a pincer. 4m Tory remainers in 2015, largely S and SW and lots of LD marginals about

He has 17 seats in Scotland, pro-remain territory where his policy is harder brexit, though we will see what happens

Going to have to pick up chunks of the Brexit party vote and Labour Leavers to compensate in the N and Midlands (plus the Eat coast constituencies which are the most fertile ground for Leave. Clacton up to Boston). Could do, but we are in unprecedented territory

A Con majority is 7/4 today. Has been 2/1

 
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« Reply #20927 on: September 20, 2019, 01:49:33 PM »

A big catch up, been flat to the boards all week

Did watch one day of the Supreme court. Compelling viewing. Enjoyed watching some different types of advocacy. Anyone else watched any of it?

I watched most of it, was utterly fascinating.

I read somewhere that on a regular day, the Supreme Court hearings are viewed by 20,000 people, but on Monday there were 4 million uniques.

I did some background research on Gina Miller too, that was quite revealing, but more of that later, maybe in my Diary which would be a more appropriate place is it's quite a bit off-topic. .



Where can I watch it on a regular day please?

I don't know Tom, I watched it "Live" on BBC Parliament, which is Channel 504 on the Sky platform.

You can watch recordings from earlier days via the links at the bottom of this page;


https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2019-0192.html


For example.....

https://www.supremecourt.uk/watch/uksc-2019-0192/170919-am.html



When they said it gets 20,000 views on a normal day, I have no idea where exactly they were referring to, sorry. I assume the 4 million views was via the BBC Parliament channel. Which, by the way, it a great watch too.


« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 01:51:09 PM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #20928 on: September 20, 2019, 02:24:05 PM »

These are so funny

Activate Susan!



 as usual ...very funny 
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« Reply #20929 on: September 20, 2019, 03:00:51 PM »

New poll shows #LibDems winning 83 Westminster seats including five in Surrey. Tories Raab and Hunt ditched.

http://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=2294

Boris faces a pincer. 4m Tory remainers in 2015, largely S and SW and lots of LD marginals about

He has 17 seats in Scotland, pro-remain territory where his policy is harder brexit, though we will see what happens

Going to have to pick up chunks of the Brexit party vote and Labour Leavers to compensate in the N and Midlands (plus the Eat coast constituencies which are the most fertile ground for Leave. Clacton up to Boston). Could do, but we are in unprecedented territory

A Con majority is 7/4 today. Has been 2/1

 

Con majority is nearly 5/2 on betfair right now and has been constantly drifting slowly but surely for weeks now.
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« Reply #20930 on: September 20, 2019, 11:54:56 PM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.
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« Reply #20931 on: September 21, 2019, 12:25:33 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.
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« Reply #20932 on: September 21, 2019, 12:37:50 AM »

There’s a motion at the Labour conference to abolish the position of deputy leader, thus booting Tom Watson (not a compadre of Jeremy Corbyn) out into the wilderness.

The reason is that the Labour left have woken up to the fact they’re going to get absolutely spit-roasted by the Tories and LibDems at the upcoming election, which will be the end of Saint Jeremy. If Corbyn is forced to step down then the deputy takes over and the left do not want that as they want to be able to install a JC-acolyte as the next leader.

It is truly amazing how little interest the Labour left has in ever getting into power.
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« Reply #20933 on: September 21, 2019, 02:05:10 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.
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« Reply #20934 on: September 21, 2019, 07:27:23 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.

Thomas Cook were on the slippery slope before you all knew the word Brexit
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« Reply #20935 on: September 21, 2019, 07:41:18 AM »

According to the Institute of Directors, about 1/3rd plan to relocate their businesses after Brexit

A third!

a long thread by Faisal Islam takes us through the IOD survey

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1173700895336521731?s=20

hmmm after a certain point you have to think - is that result actually feasible?

It reminds me of teaching unions saying they've done surveys showing 3/4 of teachers have had to pay for pupils food or wash pupils clothes - sometimes a poll reflects those asked (or those that responded) more than it does the general population.

There are about 2 million ltd companies in the UK, is it really feasible that about 650,000 companies might relocate because of Brexit?
Part of the poll suggests that 5% will just choose to shut down their business because of Brexit - is it really feasible that 100,000 companies will just voluntarily wind themselves up?

About half of the limited companies are sole traders, that poll suggests that more of those think they'll be impacted by these quesitons over Brexit than the larger ones - but I'd be very surprised if the majority of sole trader ltd companies aren't, for example, a shop selling a good or service. It's possible that some supplies might come the EU but it's difficult to see how, over the whole country, such a large effect is likely.

It's not clear exactly how they got their data - but I would very much expect these result to represent a minority of business rather than the generality.
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« Reply #20936 on: September 21, 2019, 08:56:00 AM »

the commissioned poll was of 272 businesses i believe. Obviously the results come with a margin of error as with any poll. Commissioned by IOD too.
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« Reply #20937 on: September 21, 2019, 09:02:26 AM »

the commissioned poll was of 272 businesses i believe. Obviously the results come with a margin of error as with any poll. Commissioned by IOD too.

Probably 95% of that third were likely remainers just having a whine up as per usual in the desperate hope they can influence something in their direction
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« Reply #20938 on: September 21, 2019, 09:16:33 AM »

According to the Institute of Directors, about 1/3rd plan to relocate their businesses after Brexit

A third!

a long thread by Faisal Islam takes us through the IOD survey

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1173700895336521731?s=20

hmmm after a certain point you have to think - is that result actually feasible?

It reminds me of teaching unions saying they've done surveys showing 3/4 of teachers have had to pay for pupils food or wash pupils clothes - sometimes a poll reflects those asked (or those that responded) more than it does the general population.

There are about 2 million ltd companies in the UK, is it really feasible that about 650,000 companies might relocate because of Brexit?
Part of the poll suggests that 5% will just choose to shut down their business because of Brexit - is it really feasible that 100,000 companies will just voluntarily wind themselves up?

About half of the limited companies are sole traders, that poll suggests that more of those think they'll be impacted by these quesitons over Brexit than the larger ones - but I'd be very surprised if the majority of sole trader ltd companies aren't, for example, a shop selling a good or service. It's possible that some supplies might come the EU but it's difficult to see how, over the whole country, such a large effect is likely.

It's not clear exactly how they got their data - but I would very much expect these result to represent a minority of business rather than the generality.


Thet don't claim what you think they do.   They say in the survey that there are more importers/exporters than in the general population and if they are surveying institute of director's members they aren't speaking to some bloke with a window washing round.   

I know that many insurers have had to set up businesses in the EU because of Brexit.   This must be happening across financial services, as market access is not guaranteed even under the Maybot deal.  Suspect Woodsey's lot have had to rearrange stuff at corporate level too, as medicine access is going to be sensitive.

So it is entirely plausible that a third of 900 or so IoD members who complete Brexit surveys feel like this.
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« Reply #20939 on: September 21, 2019, 09:25:18 AM »

The sober reality of Brexit once again showing it’s head as Thomas Cook look like going under, with Brexit being a major factor in it. 9,000 jobs going, 150,000 abroad and set to have a major impact on leisure industry.

Perhaps a little karma for some of those abroad who voted to leave, they can now see what their vote is doing.

Not really sure Brexit can be blamed for this one - the company has £1.7bn of debt. When you’re geared up to the eyeballs like this then any little thing going against you can send you over, and Thomas Cook has Brexit uncertainty, higher fuel and hotel bills and the super Euro heatwave of last year which put Brits off going to the destinations that they make their money from.

Brexit is a factor in all of this though, not the main one, but important to adding to the fire. The uncertainty and higher cost of holidays isn't helping anyone. Holidays are costing more, the exchange rate is down significantly, etc.

If Brexit wasn't in the middle of it all, would they be going under this week? No. They'd have much more money in the bank giving them more time.

You will be saying the roulette machines in the bookies and betting shop mass closures and Woolworth's went under because of brexit soon.   Such a typical desperate remoaner angle to take.   Retail is fucked generally.  Nothing to do with brexit.  TC is a dinosaur brand that was going under sooner rather than later whether the Euro rate was 1.3 or 1.1 it really doesn't make much difference.   If one freaky hot summer in the UK sends you skint your product can't be that impressive. 

As Peter Jones said on Dragons Den 'if you going to fail, fail quickly'  Brexit excuses have probably saved TC shareholders more pain if you are right that the business might have a future.
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