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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2181181 times)
horseplayer
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« Reply #22095 on: November 21, 2019, 01:14:27 PM »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1197456672941387779

great work from the lib dem press office

clueless
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TightEnd
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« Reply #22096 on: November 21, 2019, 01:57:07 PM »

This is why Tory strategists are watching leader ratings as closely as national polls. Only in 2005 did the more popular leader not win the election. And the gap is currently WIDE

In the realms of "its not happening but what if..." I do sometimes think where this election would be if Starmer or Cooper or Benn or (name someone not hated by the broader populace) was LOTO
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TightEnd
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« Reply #22097 on: November 21, 2019, 02:12:27 PM »

this is interesting, accepting that individual constituency polling is unreliable

@britainelects
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @Survation
, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Gt Grimsby is currently Labour and only the Conservatives 45th top target

If this is at all applicable across leave voting Northern areas...

probably worse than it looks for Labour nationally. Their vote is being condensed into safe remain seats in the cities where it has to battle Lib Dem and Green because the Remain side (or the we are mostly remain but our leader wants to leave side in Labour's case) haven't partnerred up.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2019, 02:14:19 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #22098 on: November 21, 2019, 02:37:51 PM »

this is interesting, accepting that individual constituency polling is unreliable

@britainelects
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @Survation
, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Gt Grimsby is currently Labour and only the Conservatives 45th top target

If this is at all applicable across leave voting Northern areas...

probably worse than it looks for Labour nationally. Their vote is being condensed into safe remain seats in the cities where it has to battle Lib Dem and Green because the Remain side (or the we are mostly remain but our leader wants to leave side in Labour's case) haven't partnerred up.

I was looking at the top 10 Tory targets v Labour based on smallest swing needed.

Quite a few at 1/3 for Tory win with tiny percentage move required.

Shame the bookies wont do multiples on them.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #22099 on: November 21, 2019, 02:44:59 PM »

Labour’s 2019 Manifesto has doubled down on their plans to increase the size of the state. The £70bn of spending increases they proposed two years ago has now risen to £135 billion. This would take the size of the state to a post-war high, outside of recessions, of 45.1 per cent.
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« Reply #22100 on: November 21, 2019, 02:45:47 PM »

Under Labour's plans, current receipts as a share of GDP would also rise to a 50-year high.

sources: resolution foundation
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TightEnd
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« Reply #22101 on: November 21, 2019, 02:48:49 PM »

this is a fun one

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1197519769890672640?s=20

got to love the Farage legal letter repeatedly quoting EU statutes
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ripple11
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« Reply #22102 on: November 21, 2019, 03:02:34 PM »

this is interesting, accepting that individual constituency polling is unreliable

@britainelects
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @Survation
, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Gt Grimsby is currently Labour and only the Conservatives 45th top target

If this is at all applicable across leave voting Northern areas...

probably worse than it looks for Labour nationally. Their vote is being condensed into safe remain seats in the cities where it has to battle Lib Dem and Green because the Remain side (or the we are mostly remain but our leader wants to leave side in Labour's case) haven't partnerred up.

I was looking at the top 10 Tory targets v Labour based on smallest swing needed.

Quite a few at 1/3 for Tory win with tiny percentage move required.

Shame the bookies wont do multiples on them.



Yes, I asked the Ladbrokes Politics guy on Twitter and I could hear him laughing as he said singles only. Smiley
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« Reply #22103 on: November 21, 2019, 03:51:32 PM »

this is a fun one

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1197519769890672640?s=20

got to love the Farage legal letter repeatedly quoting EU statutes

Com website Cheesy
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« Reply #22104 on: November 21, 2019, 05:31:09 PM »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1197456672941387779

great work from the lib dem press office

clueless

That's terrible, really have close to zero respect for the Lib dems on any level at all. I think half the labour party has gone a bit mad but even then, I still respect their position to some kind of degree
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« Reply #22105 on: November 21, 2019, 05:49:21 PM »

this is interesting, accepting that individual constituency polling is unreliable

@britainelects
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @Survation
, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Gt Grimsby is currently Labour and only the Conservatives 45th top target

If this is at all applicable across leave voting Northern areas...

probably worse than it looks for Labour nationally. Their vote is being condensed into safe remain seats in the cities where it has to battle Lib Dem and Green because the Remain side (or the we are mostly remain but our leader wants to leave side in Labour's case) haven't partnerred up.

The Lib Dems should have stood aside all over the country rather than pretending they have any worthwhile role to play in anything. A bit like the Brexit party in terms of being a protest movement.

As soon as their position had dragged Labour into second ref territory, they should have accepted they had no further purpose...in the national interest of course
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« Reply #22106 on: November 21, 2019, 09:02:34 PM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.
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« Reply #22107 on: November 21, 2019, 09:46:23 PM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

Interesting this. I think it will change things but negatively for Labour. Gonna be really interesting watching the results on the 13th..mildly excited by the prospect.
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« Reply #22108 on: November 21, 2019, 11:01:34 PM »

Watching Newsnight and the Tories have not made anyone available to have a free shot at hurling bricks through the Labour manifesto window.

They obviously saw that Barry Gardiner was on for Labour and thought they didn’t need to bother.

In the realms of "its not happening but what if..." I do sometimes think where this election would be if Starmer or Cooper or Benn or (name someone not hated by the broader populace) was LOTO

There’d be no election. The Tories wouldn’t have had the lurch to the right and driven away the moderates in the party as they know they would have needed them to fight for the centre ground.

With Corbyn as leader, they knew that any dissatisfied moderate Tory voters would only go so far as the Lib Dems so the rump of Labour/Tory marginals would be safe.
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« Reply #22109 on: November 22, 2019, 01:36:11 AM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.






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